Other NFL team previews: 32. Dolphins | 31. Jets | 30. Cardinals | 29. Browns | 28. Titans | 27. Raiders
This was the Las Vegas Raiders’ plan a year ago: A team with no realistic chance of getting out of last place in the AFC West hired the oldest coach in NFL history and traded a valuable third-round draft pick for a middle-of-the-road quarterback about to turn 35 years old.
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In retrospect, it was bizarre but also on-brand for the Raiders. Since the Raiders made the Super Bowl at the end of the 2002 season, they have employed 15 head coaches, including interims and new coach Klint Kubiak, they’ve had 15 double-digit-loss seasons, and they’ve made only two playoff appearances, with zero wins. They haven’t won a division title in that time but have finished in last place in the division nine times. Investing in Pete Carroll and Geno Smith made no sense, but it has been decades since the Raiders made sense.
That’s what made this offseason a nice surprise: The Raiders operated like a competent NFL team.
Carroll didn’t work out, and he was replaced by Kubiak, the type of young, respected offensive mind that a team in the gutter should take a shot on. The roster was upgraded with a lot of big contracts, but nothing that should turn out to be a long-term hindrance or an embarrassment on the level of some other Raiders free-agent additions (Christian Wilkins, anyone?). The Raiders’ trade/non-trade of Maxx Crosby was a messy affair, but everyone blamed the Ravens for it falling apart, and Las Vegas ended the ordeal by retaining Crosby, one of the best players in football.
The Raiders clearly tanked late in the season to get the top pick in this year’s NFL Draft, and it worked. The NFL looked the other way, and Las Vegas ended up with a quarterback who isn’t in his mid-30s. They drafted Fernando Mendoza first overall, hoping the magic he displayed in leading Indiana to a miraculous national championship rubs off on a franchise that doesn’t know what it’s like to win anymore. The Raiders’ most recent playoff victory came about nine months before Mendoza was born. And while signing Kirk Cousins to start and let Mendoza learn isn’t conventional in this era, there’s at least some logic behind it.
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Mendoza’s timetable to start will be a recurring story until it happens. Cousins got what amounts to $20 million over one year, which is an expensive bridge but also indicates the Raiders want Cousins to start for as long as he can. Some of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, such as Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence and Caleb Williams started right away as rookies or very shortly into their rookie years. They all turned out fine, yet the Raiders are taking the old-school approach and slow-cooking their quarterback’s development. We’ll see how long they can resist giving Mendoza a try.
The Raiders live an odd existence. They hang onto the “Raider Way” for dear life, but that way has led to a dead end for almost a quarter of a century. There is fantastic history from many, many years ago, but the NFL made a clear statement when it didn’t give the Raiders a single prime time or standalone game, one of five teams to receive that shame. The NFL wants teams to play their way into prime time; the Raiders haven’t earned that status in a long time. They’re one of the NFL’s bottom-rung franchises, no matter how much their fan base might argue otherwise.
But every downtrodden team that lifted itself out of the abyss had to start somewhere. This offseason felt like progress in Las Vegas.
Offseason grade
It’s rare for a team to pick first overall in the NFL Draft and have that be far from the biggest headline of their offseason. The Maxx Crosby trade that turned out to not be a trade will be remembered for a long time. The Ravens agreed to send two first-round draft picks to the Raiders, then backed out, saying they were worried about Crosby’s knee after giving him a physical. The Raiders might’ve been better off long-term with the trade, but having Crosby back isn’t bad. He’s a fantastic player and will help the Raiders this season.
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So will the many free agents the Raiders signed, headlined by center Tyler Linderbaum. His three-year, $81 million deal was 50% larger in terms of annual value than any other contract for a center in NFL history. While that was a stunning leap, the Raiders need to overpay to land free agents. And they landed one of the best available, a three-time Pro Bowler in his prime. They also signed defensive end Kwity Paye, linebackers Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean, receiver Jalen Nailor and quarterback Kirk Cousins. And they re-signed edge rusher Malcolm Koonce and safety Eric Stokes. All of those players got at least $10 million per season.
The Raiders’ draft class got rave reviews, with the second-best composite grade point average among draft analysts. That draft was led by quarterback Fernando Mendoza and also included safety Treydan Stukes, defensive end Keyron Crawford, offensive lineman Trey Zuhn and cornerback Jermod McCoy. All were top-101 picks. McCoy has a scary medical outlook after a major knee injury, but he might’ve been the top cornerback in the class if healthy and was a reasonable gamble for a Raiders team looking to hit home runs. Overall, the roster is much better than it was last season. This might’ve been a franchise-changing offseason, though that will ultimately depend on Mendoza.
Grade: A
Fernando Mendoza is the fourth quarterback taken by the Raiders in the first round since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. (Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
(David Becker via Getty Images)
Quarterback report
Teams have fun with schedule release videos, and on the surface, that’s all the Raiders were doing when they had Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza recreate “Step Brothers.” It was funny. But it was also a very good sign. When there’s an accomplished veteran and a top pick on the same team, it’s not always friendly. John Elway wouldn’t have been clowning around like that with Tommy Maddox, Brett Favre wasn’t best buddies with Aaron Rodgers, and it’s not like you saw the Rams do a video like that with Matthew Stafford and Ty Simpson.
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The Raiders paid Cousins a lot, and his main job is presumably to be the Week 1 starter and keep Mendoza on the bench and learning for as long as possible.
“We all want to see the young guys play, we want to see them play well, but we don’t want to put anybody out there, regardless of the position, who’s not ready,” Raiders general manager John Spytek said.
Cousins also was brought in to be a mentor. Everyone knows that eventually he’ll lose his job to the No. 1 pick. Many veterans have chafed when put in a similar position. But Cousins is saying and doing all the right things so far, including that “Step Brothers” video. If he’s able to guide Mendoza through this transition and help him maximize his potential, it will be $20 million well spent.
“Tremendous player, tremendous person, looking forward to working together,” Cousins said about Mendoza to broadcaster Taylor Rocha from a Golden Knights game. “I think we’ll be a great support system to one another. Hopefully I can kind of help lead the way and kind of introduce him to the NFL and get him started on what’s going to be a great career.”
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Odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The Raiders nailed the 2026 NFL schedule release with their ‘Step Brothers’ remake. Now how will the actual season go? Vegas still has Maxx Crosby on the roster, improved via free agency and drafted a franchise-QB-in-waiting in No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza, but Vegas is favored in only three games. Kirk Cousins seems to know the assignment at this stage in his career, but outside of a Week 1 home game vs. the Dolphins, the Raiders’ schedule is brutal. They also have a rest differential of -13 days, which is third-worst in the NFL. Vegas is a 3-point Week 1 favorite and then an underdog in 13 straight games. Even with a low win total of 5.5, it’s hard not to like the under here.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Somehow, Ashton Jeanty was the RB13 as a rookie, despite a horrible supporting cast. That finish probably represents his floor for 2026. The Raiders have significantly improved their offensive line, and new head coach Klint Kubiak knows how to design a running game. Jeanty also has the looks of a bell-cow back, with fourth-round rookie Mike Washington the nearest teammate on the depth chart. If you hold a pick close to the wheel (10-11, or 12-13) in your fantasy draft, Jeanty looks like a reasonable target.”
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Stat to remember
Another questionable decision the 2025 Raiders made was drafting running back Ashton Jeanty sixth overall. Jeanty was a tremendous prospect, but the Raiders had to know they weren’t in position to support him and a running back wouldn’t help get them very far. Plus, Jeanty’s rookie season was a disappointment, based on his draft position.
Jeanty averaged 3.7 yards per carry and rushed for just 975 yards, despite starting all 17 games. He had just two 100-yard rushing games and only three games over 75 yards. The advanced metrics show an inefficient rusher, though that’s not all his fault. The Raiders’ line was bad, there was turmoil on the coaching staff that led to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly being fired midseason, and quarterback Geno Smith’s collapse made it even tougher on the running game. Still, Jeanty had the sixth-worst rushing yards over expectation among NFL backs, according to Next Gen Stats. His breakaway percentage (a 15-yard gain on a designed run) of 17.7% was 26th among 28 backs with at least 175 carries, via Pro Football Focus.
Jeanty’s PFF elusive rating, which takes blocking into account, was much more auspicious. He finished sixth in that category, ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs, among others. He still has the prospect pedigree on his side, and the situation around him should be much better this year. But another season far below 4 yards per carry without many 100-yard games would be a bad sign, given how much the Raiders invested in Jeanty.
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Burning question: Maxx Crosby is back. Now what?
One of the questions from the weird Maxx Crosby trade fiasco was what would happen next for Crosby and his Raiders future. He was back after already being traded, which is rare and awkward. But the Raiders never seemed to waver: Crosby would be back with them. And Crosby bought right in.
“I’m meant to be a Raider. It’s through my damn core. That’s it,” he said on “The Rush with Maxx Crosby” podcast. “I’m in this s*** for life. Until that changes — which I don’t foresee. Honestly, you never know in this damn league. I found that out for sure. I just feel like I’m meant to be a Raider.”
Part of holding onto Crosby had to be prudence. Baltimore’s nixing the trade based on Crosby’s knee practically lowered his trade market, and the Ravens were obviously willing to pay more than any other team to start with. As Crosby said, you never know in the NFL, but he will almost certainly be a Raider this season, and the team and player will figure it out after that.
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It’s an unexpected twist, and maybe the Ravens’ concerns about Crosby’s knee will become an issue for the Raiders going forward, but Las Vegas will get at least one more season out of its best player. That’s not the worst news.
Best-case scenario
Last season, we saw the Patriots, with a new head coach and after a free-agent spending spree, go from 4-13 to an AFC championship. The Jaguars got a new coach and went from 4-13 to a division title. The Bears, with a new coach and an exciting quarterback who had been drafted No. 1 overall, went from 5-12 to winning the NFC North. Every season, we see a new coach inject life into a franchise that makes a massive improvement.
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The 2026 Raiders winning the AFC West seems like a bridge way too far, but it would also be a shock if the Raiders were as awful as last season. They could end the season close to .500. Considering they’ve been over .500 just twice in the past 23 seasons, that would be real progress. Even better, the Raiders could end the season feeling like the trio of Fernando Mendoza, Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers — with Klint Kubiak being every bit the play-caller the team signed up for — provide a foundation for a top-10 offense going forward.
This isn’t last year, when the Raiders were stumbling around with no long-term plan to get out of the mess they were in. This year, the Raiders made strong moves toward being better in the present while laying the groundwork for future success. That seems like the first step toward something tangible.
Nightmare scenario
Just because the Raiders made smart, reasonable moves doesn’t mean they’ll work out. That begins with Klint Kubiak and Fernando Mendoza. Kubiak has never been a head coach, and he’s been a coordinator only three times. In two of those three coordinator seasons, his offenses didn’t rank in the top 10. Last season with the Seahawks was great, but it’s also doing a lot of the work on his résumé.
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There was also plenty of debate over Mendoza and whether he was truly a top quarterback prospect or just the No. 1 pick in a bad draft. Maybe the latter will prove itself true over time. Perhaps Ashton Jeanty doesn’t look much better, Maxx Crosby’s knee turns out to be a problem, and most of the big-ticket free-agent additions prove to not be worth their contracts.
The Raiders were awful last season, outscored by 191 points, so it’s not that outlandish to think they could again be one of the worst teams in football. Then we’d see if the Raiders have the discipline to stick with their plan.
The crystal ball says …
It’s easy to get excited about where the Raiders might be headed. At the very least, there’s a light in the distance that wasn’t on when Pete Carroll and Geno Smith were foundations of the franchise. The Raiders still play in a tough division, and there’s a long way to go from what they were last season to respectability, so it’s hard to predict a playoff berth.
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But Fernando Mendoza will show (at some point) that he can be a solid starting NFL quarterback, Ashton Jeanty will improve in a much better environment, Brock Bowers will continue to be one of the best young stars in the NFL, and the 2026 Raiders will be a competitive but losing team. Given how infrequently the Raiders have been competitive through the years, that will be a nice springboard to the 2027 offseason.
