Other NFL team previews: 32. Dolphins | 31. Jets | 30. Cardinals | 29. Browns | 28. Titans | 27. Raiders | 26. Falcons | 25. Giants | 24. Saints | 23. Panthers
In all sports, we focus on the last thing we saw from a team, especially if it was in the postseason. We fixate on how a team fared in an elimination event, rather than looking at the larger sample of the season that preceded it.
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That’s a good thing for the Carolina Panthers.
The last time we saw the Panthers, they almost pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL playoff history. Carolina, which squeezed into the playoffs with an 8-9 record thanks to playing in a terrible NFC South, was a 10.5-point home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams on wild-card weekend, the biggest home playoff underdog in the Super Bowl era.
And with a minute to go, the Panthers led 31-27. A blocked punt led to Bryce Young’s fantastic touchdown pass to Jalen Coker with 2:37 left, giving the Panthers an improbable lead. Matthew Stafford then led the Rams on a fairly easy drive downfield, hitting tight end Colby Parkinson for a winning score with 38 seconds left. There was no shame in being beaten in the final minute by one of the NFL’s two best teams last season, with the league’s MVP coming up with a clutch drive when he had to.
That near-miss changed the perception of the Panthers. They became the team that gave the Rams everything they could handle — Carolina beat the Rams in the regular season, too — and not one of five teams in NFL history to make the playoffs with a record under .500. The Panthers gained confidence too.
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“We proved that we’re supposed to be here and that we’re the team we said we are,” safety Nick Scott told ESPN.
Sometimes that’s how a special run starts. In 2011, the Seattle Seahawks made the playoffs at 7-9, upset the New Orleans Saints in the “Beastquake” game, and three seasons later they were Super Bowl champions. The 2014 Panthers made the playoffs with a losing record, won in the wild-card round and a year later Carolina went 15-1 and won the NFC. It can happen. This Panthers team believes in itself.
“We definitely showed the world, showed the city of Charlotte that we’re here to compete,” receiver and 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan said, via the team’s site.
Figuring out what happens next with Carolina is a challenge. Had the Panthers played in a normal division there wouldn’t be any good vibes about them because we wouldn’t have had a playoff berth or that close loss against the Rams to preoccupy us. The Panthers profiled as a team that was actually worse than its 8-9 record. They had the fourth-lowest point differential of any team to make the playoffs in NFL history.
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In DVOA, they were 25th overall, 25th on offense, 22nd on defense and 22nd on special teams. They were 26th in EPA (expected points added) on offense and 23rd in EPA allowed. They were 28th in net yards per play, according to OddsShark. They won eight games and six came by three or fewer points, though that included a nice win at Green Bay and a regular-season win over the Rams. And now the Panthers get a first-place schedule, the third-toughest in the NFL this season according to SharpFootballAnalysis.com.
But winning a bad division was progress for a franchise that had lost double-digit games in each of the previous six seasons. The Panthers spent big on their defense this offseason, signing pass rusher Jaelan Phillips to a huge $120 million deal over four years and also grabbed linebacker Devin Lloyd, a second-team All-Pro last season. It’s a young team that took tangible steps forward and added two impact defenders, but by most metrics was one of the 10 worst teams in the NFL last season with a quarterback who still hasn’t solidified himself as a top-end starter.
Either the loss to the Rams was a sign of a team starting to level up, or just a great effort by an overmatched team that still has a long way to go, as the metrics would indicate. For Carolina itself, it’s scary to think that the peak of this era was a playoff loss after an 8-9 regular season.
Offseason grade
Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips has a great reputation but has not reached nine sacks in any of his five NFL seasons. The Panthers are expecting more, as they signed Phillips to a four-year, $120 million deal, $80 million of which is guaranteed. The Panthers also signed linebacker Devin Lloyd to a three-year, $45 million deal after his big season with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Phillips will be 27 years old this season and Lloyd will turn 28 during the season; each should provide multi-year value. The Panthers also got a deal on former Packers left tackle Rasheed Walker, who got just $4 million over one year but has three years of starting experience for a good team.
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The Panthers used their first-round draft pick on offensive tackle Monroe Freeling. The selection of Freeling and the Walker signing were necessary because left tackle Ikem Ekwonu tore his patellar tendon in the playoffs. The Panthers haven’t offered a firm timetable on Ekwonu’s return. The Panthers’ draft, which included defensive tackle Lee Hunter in the second round and receiver Chris Brazzell II in the third, was viewed as a solid haul. The Panthers did lose free agent defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson, center Cade Mays and running back Rico Dowdle to significant deals elsewhere, but overall the Panthers had a solid offseason and filled a few needs.
Grade: B
Quarterback report
Bryce Young has played three seasons, and the Panthers are no closer to a definitive answer on whether he’s their long-term answer at quarterback. We can see that through how they hedged his contract situation this offseason. Carolina exercised the 2027 fifth-year option on the former No. 1 overall draft pick’s rookie deal for $25.9 million but have not signed him to a long-term extension and don’t plan to before the season, according to The Athletic. The fifth-year option should give Young two seasons to show he’s worth a massive extension.
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There have been some good games from Young, including a 147.1 passer rating in a regular-season win over the Rams. That was his best passer rating in any game last season. Yet, he failed to pass for more than 200 yards in 12 of 16 starts. Young had just 54 yards in a loss to the Seahawks late in the season.
The Panthers were a run-heavy team, ranking fifth-to-last in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE). That’s a product of having a quarterback who has yet to truly break out. There have been enough good signs since Young was benched early in the 2024 season that the Panthers decided to pay him more than $25 million in 2027 (which is still not expensive for a starting quarterback), but can he do enough over the next two seasons to solidify himself as the Panthers’ quarterback of the foreseeable future?
Bryce Young, the first overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, enters his fourth season with the Carolina Panthers. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “The Panthers picked up the fifth-year option on QB Bryce Young, but this is still a very important season for him — something we’ve seemingly been saying on a yearly basis. Carolina was a surprise winner of the NFC South last season and the Panthers were good to bettors (11-7 ATS), but it’s hard to know what to expect from them this season. Is there enough offensive help at WR outside of Tetairoa McMillan? How will the Panthers replace Ike Ekwomu at left tackle? How improved will the defense be with Lee Hunter, Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips on board? Carolina is a short underdog in three of its first four games before a bye, but then an underdog in eight straight after that. The Panthers also have the third-toughest schedule by opposing season win totals.”
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Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Chuba Hubbard carries a boring veteran discount as we meander through June (RB24), and that’s a ticket I’m willing to write. Rico Dowdle left as a free agent in March, which means Hubbard’s primary backfield competition is Jonathon Brooks, someone who has just 12 touches in two professional seasons. Hubbard was the RB12 in fantasy points per game two years ago, and I trust head coach Dave Canales to put his primary back in a position to succeed. If you can solve the volume question for any team’s backfield, you’re well on your way to unearthing value.”
Stat to remember
The Panthers paid Jaelan Phillips like he’s a star on defense. After signing a four-year, $120 million deal, Phillips is one of nine edge rushers to have a contract worth at least $30 million per year. The base stats don’t back that up. Phillips has 28 sacks in 63 career games. Myles Garrett had 23 sacks in 17 games last season. Micah Parsons has five double-digit sack seasons in five years in the NFL; Phillips hasn’t recorded nine sacks in a season. Every one of the eight edge rushers who is paid more per year than Phillips has been named to multiple Pro Bowls. Phillips hasn’t made a Pro Bowl yet.
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While Phillips’ sack numbers are good, the Panthers paid a lot. That’s what it took to land Phillips when the Eagles were trying to re-sign him. Now the Panthers hope the investment pays off.
Burning question
What is Tetairoa McMillan’s ceiling?
McMillan was a surprise pick by the Panthers as the eighth selection of last year’s draft, and it paid off. McMillan was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year, and he carried the Panthers’ passing game. McMillan had 1,014 receiving yards, which was 30.7% of Carolina’s team total. No other receiver for the Panthers had more than 394 yards. The Panthers targeted McMillan like an alpha receiver as a rookie, and he delivered.
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McMillan told the Panthers’ site he is focused on maintaining weight this season, after playing at 205 pounds most of last season as he “felt pretty weak.” He said earlier this offseason that he has worked his way back up to 215-220 pounds. McMillan also had some drops as a rookie, which wasn’t a concern for him coming out of college so it’s unlikely that will repeat. McMillan won’t put up massive numbers unless the Panthers’ passing game becomes more prolific as a whole, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t improve upon what was an impressive rookie season.
Best-case scenario
Start with this: The Panthers can repeat as division champions. It’s not like the NFC South looks much stronger on paper than it was last season. A team could break out and win double-digit games, and maybe that team is the Panthers. Confidence can go a long way, and Carolina gained some by making the playoffs and looking like it belonged in that wild-card round loss against a very good Rams team.
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The key to being something more than a winner of a bad division is Bryce Young. His best games are promising. There haven’t been enough of them. Being a 3,000-yard passer in the modern NFL is a very low bar, and Young barely crossed it with 3,011 yards last season.
The Panthers aren’t good enough in the run game or on defense to win big with a bottom-10 passing game. Carolina was the only team in the bottom nine of the NFL in passing yards to make the playoffs, and it did so with a losing record. If Tetairoa McMillan improves off a good rookie season and Jalen Coker fulfills the Panthers’ belief in his skills as McMillan’s No. 2 running mate (2024 first-round pick Xavier Legette hasn’t done enough to rely on him), then Young and the passing game could improve. Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd could help a young defense level up as well. Then we’d see a legitimate champion come out of the NFC South.
Nightmare scenario
The Panthers’ fairly lucky 6-2 record in games decided by three or fewer points was a big help to them last season. If the Panthers were instead 4-4 in those games, they would have been 6-11 and it would look like nothing had changed in Carolina.
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Point differential and DVOA indicate the Panthers weren’t even at the level of a seven-win team last season. They were fortunate to get to eight wins and benefitted from playing in the NFC South. The Panthers also played the 16th toughest schedule last season according to DVOA, and that jumps up to third toughest this season according to SharpFootballAnalysis.com. We don’t think of an 8-9 team being a big regression candidate, but Carolina checks a lot of the boxes.
If the Panthers play closer to what their metrics said they were last season, it could be another double-digit loss season. That would be depressing for a franchise that thought it was finally making progress.
The crystal ball says
It’s fun to see a team build up step by step and become a championship contender. It is reasonable to think that we saw the Panthers make one of those steps last season. They were aggressive in the offseason to keep the momentum going.
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However, there’s a lot working against the Panthers. They overachieved last season and they play a tougher schedule this season. Bryce Young still hasn’t shown he can consistently be relied upon. Carolina’s defense wasn’t great last season and while it should improve with Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, it might take another offseason to get it to the top half of the NFL.
While the Panthers graduating to a double-digit win team would be a fun story, it seems more likely that Carolina finishes with another losing record. This time, it won’t result in a division title.
