AL Rookie of the Year: Why I voted for the Guardians’ Parker Messick over the Tigers’ Kevin McGonigle

Parker Messick is now in a club all by himself.

On Wednesday, the Cleveland Guardians’ left-hander will likely finish third in AL Cy Young voting behind Yankees ace Cam Schlittler and Blue Jays right-hander Dylan Cease. Messick being announced as a finalist confirmed him as just the sixth rookie in MLB history to finish in the top three of Cy Young voting, joining Mark Fidrych (1976), Fernando Valenzuela (1981), Dwight Gooden (1984), Jose Fernandez (2013) and Paul Skenes (2024).

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All five previous rookie Cy Young finalists were named Rookie of the Year for their standout debut campaigns. But on Monday, Messick finished second in 2026 AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle, who received 28 out of 30 first-place votes.

This outcome says plenty about just how special of a season McGonigle put together on his way to surpassing Messick in this race. And as one of the two voters who put Messick first on their ballot, I can now discuss how I arrived at that conclusion.

This was not an easy decision, and it became only more difficult as neither Messick nor McGonigle faltered down the stretch of the regular season. To be clear, McGonigle is quite obviously a worthy winner. Watching the early stages of his career has been an absolute treat, as he quickly proved that his special hit tool, lauded by scouts during his high school days, translates seamlessly to the pro ranks. 

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Since he was drafted in 2023, I watched from afar as McGonigle tore through the minor leagues. Then I got my first in-person look last year in the Arizona Fall League, where he was the best player in the league by a mile and also one of the youngest. His brilliant 2025 across three levels of the minors launched him into the highest rung of top prospect lists, alongside Pittsburgh’s Konnor Griffin and Milwaukee’s Jesus Made. And of those three, it was McGonigle who made the big-league team out of spring training and wasted no time announcing his presence, with four hits in his major-league debut on Opening Day.

After four games batting sixth, McGonigle never hit lower than third in Detroit’s lineup for the remainder of the season. Meanwhile, the 21-year-old bounced between shortstop and third base, depending on what the Tigers needed. I watched him in person on multiple occasions in 2026, including at the All-Star Game in Philadelphia, where he was the youngest player on either roster. A few weeks later, I was in Detroit when he walked off the Dodgers during Tarik Skubal’s emotional homecoming weekend, offering a resounding reminder that the Tigers’ future is still bright with McGonigle leading the way. 

There’s no shortage of stats indicating that McGonigle’s season was special, but by the end, it was the consistency and bulk of excellence that stood out. From Opening Day through September, McGonigle was a dependable, daily fixture in Detroit’s lineup en route to an AL-leading 707 plate appearances — the most by a rookie since Ichiro Suzuki (738) and Jimmy Rollins (720) in 2001. 

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It’s no surprise, then, that the Tigers felt comfortable making an enormous commitment to McGonigle, inking an eight-year, $150 million extension just a few weeks into his career. He’s that good. And if you’re asking me whom I’d rather have on my team moving forward, I’d take McGonigle over not only Messick but also almost any other young position player in the game today. But in trying to assess which rookie season was more impressive, I ended up leaning toward Messick, if ever so slightly. 

WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is an easy place to start when sorting through any modern award race, but it didn’t really do me any favors here. While WAR is an outstanding, catch-all measure of all-around value, I’m less inclined to rely on it when two players are within 1 WAR of each other. That was the case with McGonigle and Messick by all three of the most prominent metrics: Baseball Reference (bWAR) had McGonigle at 7.1 to Messick’s 6.3, FanGraphs (fWAR) had McGonigle at 5.4 to Messick’s 4.9, and Baseball Prospectus (WARP) had McGonigle at 5.2 to Messick’s 4.9.

McGonigle’s 7.1 bWAR led all AL players (hitters and pitchers) in 2026. It was the seventh-most by a rookie position player since integration (1947) and the most by a rookie since Aaron Judge’s 8.1 in 2017. Messick’s 6.3 bWAR was third in the AL behind McGonigle and presumptive AL Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler (7.0). His mark rated similarly historically among rookies, tied for seventh among rookie pitchers since integration and the most by a rookie pitcher since Mark Eichhorn’s 7.3 in 1986. By fWAR, Messick stands out even more historically. His 4.9 is tied with six others (including Valenzuela and Spencer Strider) for eighth among rookie pitchers since integration, while McGonigle’s 5.4 is tied with recent rookie standouts Jackson Merrill and Corbin Carroll for 21st among position players. 

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With WAR failing to give me a decisive answer, I dug into the degree to which each candidate stood out relative to not only their first-year peers but also the league as a whole. It was apparent by midsummer that McGonigle and Messick had separated themselves from the rest of the rookie pack. So how did their performances stack up against the big leagues’ best hitters and pitchers, regardless of experience? This framing, in a nutshell, is what tilted me toward Messick.

Messick was not a premier prospect like McGonigle, but he wasn’t a total nobody, either. Unheralded at a Tampa-area high school, the lefty blossomed into a brilliant college pitcher at Florida State. Still, his modest stature and lack of impact velocity limited his prospect stock leading up to the 2022 draft, in which the Guardians took him in the second round. He climbed Cleveland’s minor-league system methodically, flummoxing opposing hitters with his funky uptempo delivery and pinpoint command. He made his major-league debut on Aug. 20, 2025, and quietly shined down the stretch, posting a 2.72 ERA across 39 ⅔ innings.

Messick’s stellar first impression boosted his status in scouting circles — you could find him in the bottom 20 of most top-100 prospect lists entering 2026. Still, he did not arrive at spring camp with a guaranteed rotation spot. In fact, it was not until the final days of spring training that he secured a role on Cleveland’s starting staff, making him the Guardians’ No. 5 starter to begin the year. But it didn’t take long for him to shed that label and emerge as a legitimate frontline arm.