Neil Paine
Multiple Authors
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? They have roughly four weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their case. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 28 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking above the cutline, though their fates are not yet clear. 12 current teams
Work to do: The truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip. 16 current teams
Long shots: There is little — though not zero — chance they make the Big Dance as an at-large.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
Big Ten | SEC | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
BIG TEN
9.8 expected bids; 8.8 at-large
Locks (5)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Michigan State Spartans
Should be in (4)
Wisconsin Badgers
Updated: Feb. 14, 7:17 a.m.
Fresh off of an overtime win at Illinois on Tuesday, the Badgers grabbed another Quadrant 1A win on Friday night, flat out dominating Michigan State at home. That latest victory was the Badgers’ third Quadrant 1A win of the season, which improves a résumé that now sits around 30th in the national consensus ranking (sixth in a Big Ten currently tracking for 10 bids). Their remaining schedule gets a little bit better after one more Quadrant 1A opponent (Ohio State in Columbus) next week, and that — plus their recent résumé-boosting Ws — has boosted Wisconsin in the consensus at-large forecast from 79% to 96% in the past two weeks.
Next game: at Ohio State (Tuesday)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 14, 7:11 p.m.
Iowa was looking like a potential “lock” candidate after winning six in a row, but the Hawkeyes’ at-large chances have fallen after back-to-back losses at Maryland and to Purdue. The Hawkeyes still own a résumé in the mid-30s nationally, and they are borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings, both of which bode well for their tournament hopes. But their schedule gets more difficult, jumping from 63rd so far to ninth from here on nationally (third hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI.
Next game: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: Feb. 10, 7:20 a.m.
Darling of the forecast models — which now average out to a conditional at-large probability in the mid-80% range despite the team’s borderline top-40 résumé ranking — Indiana bolstered its chances with a thrilling overtime win over Wisconsin on Saturday, then rolled all over Oregon on Monday. The latter was the Hoosiers’ fifth victory in six games, a stretch that includes three wins over opponents in Quadrants 1 and 2. With only the eighth-hardest remaining schedule in the Big Ten and a top-30 ranking in the predictive metrics, the Hoosiers have a good path to the tourney in front of them.
Next game: at Illinois (Sunday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 14, 2:54 p.m.
A recent stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80%, but that hot streak cooled off in Ann Arbor on Saturday, as Michigan rolled over UCLA by 30. The Bruins do have two Quadrant 1 wins, their résumé still ranks in the mid-40s nationally (10th in the Big Ten), and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. If the conference gets 10 bids, the Bruins are currently in line for the last one, but difficult matchups against Michigan State, Illinois and Nebraska remain.
Next game: at Michigan State (Tuesday)
Work to do (3)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: Feb. 14, 10:21 p.m.
With a prime opportunity to raise its at-large chances even further against Virginia on Saturday in Nashville, Ohio State led by 11 early and was competitive throughout, but ultimately fell to the No. 15 Cavaliers. The Buckeyes still sit right on the bubble, ranking mid-40s in the national résumé rankings and 11th in what is looking like a 10-bid Big Ten. They are also 1-8 against Quadrant 1 opponents, making them less sure of a tournament-bound team as they seemed earlier in the season. But they’re better than their current résumé indicates, ranking inside the top 40 of the predictive ratings. The main issue is that they have been unable to build consistent momentum at any point this season, following six of their past seven wins with a defeat.
Next game: vs. Wisconsin (Tuesday)
USC Trojans
Updated: Feb. 12, 7:14 a.m.
Behind the play of freshman star Alijah Arenas, USC’s recent win streak helped pad its bubble case. But in a crucial visit to Ohio State on Wednesday, the Trojans were unable to hang on to a second-half lead, which sliced their at-large chances below 60%. If the season ended today, they would still likely secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the eighth-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. Of course, their main problem remains future results. which is why the models are less bullish. USC is a high-40s team in the predictive ratings, with the nation’s 23rd most difficult remaining schedule. The next three weeks will be a wild ride for Eric Musselman’s team.
Next game: vs. Illinois (Wednesday)
Long shots
Washington Huskies
SEC
9.6 expected bids (8.6 at-large)
Locks (6)
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
Should be in (2)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: Feb. 14, 10:47 p.m.
Auburn’s fortunes continued to slide with a double-digit loss to Arkansas in Fayetteville on Saturday. While the Tigers’ four straight defeats have come against Quadrant 1 opponents — Tennessee, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Arkansas — they have dropped them to 5-7 in SEC play and complicated what once seemed like a strong tournament case. If we zoom out, the Tigers do have four Quadrant 1 wins (including two Quadrant 1A) against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and they remain mid-30s in the national résumé ranking average. On paper, those types of teams tend to receive an at-large call, though the BPI is projecting them to potentially not even reach 18 wins. They will be a fascinating litmus test for how much the committee values record versus schedule strength.
Next game: at Mississippi State (Wednesday)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: Feb. 15, 7:29 a.m.
In the highest-leverage bubble showdown on Saturday’s slate, the Longhorns beat Missouri convincingly on the road to continue a sharp upward trajectory in recent tournament projections. They graduate from “work to do” to “should be in” as a result, with the consensus forecast giving them a 77% at-large chance after the victory. The Longhorns are still 10th in the conference in the résumé rankings (borderline top 50 nationally), but their results are catching up with their predictive rating, which consistently has been in the top 40. They still face a tough slate with four of their final six regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents. Their tournament hopes might still rest on the SEC getting 10 bids, but the Longhorns are in vastly better shape now than at any point in the past six weeks.
Next game: vs. LSU (Tuesday)
Work to do (3)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: Feb. 14, 3:15 p.m.
Texas A&M’s consensus at-large chances reached well into the 80% range after opening SEC play on a 7-1 run, but the Aggies have dropped four straight — including Saturday’s loss at Vanderbilt — and their odds have gone tumbling. They now check in below 70%, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” They are still projected by the BPI to clear 20 wins by regular season’s end, but they also rank ninth in the résumé ranking average out of what could be only a nine-bid conference — even if it’s more likely 10 — and the gap between them and the rest of the SEC’s “work to do” tier has basically vanished.
Next game: vs. Mississippi (Wednesday)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: Feb. 15, 7:29 a.m.
After winning 16 of their first 19 games, the Dawgs have been on the decline, notching their fifth loss in six games after a second-half collapse at Oklahoma on Saturday. They have fallen from a 97% consensus at-large chance to 66% in the past three weeks and now sit 40th in the overall résumé rankings — with a quartet of wins against the BPI top 50 — and eighth in résumé average amid what is looking like a nine- or 10-bid SEC. The recent jump in schedule difficulty has taken its toll, with plenty of tough matchups left.
Next game: at Kentucky (Tuesday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: Feb. 14, 11:17 p.m.
On the heels of three straight wins (and four in five games) to revive what had been a flagging at-large probability, Missouri had a golden opportunity to add another résumé win over bubble nemesis Texas at home on Saturday. But the Tigers were outscored 52-37 after halftime, losing the critical matchup by 17 points. They rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average — a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10 tournament entries by most accounts. They do have a pair of Quadrant 1A wins (Florida and Kentucky) and five against the BPI top 50, but even if their résumé is on par with Texas and Texas A&M, the Tigers are much lower in the predictive metrics — and play an even tougher remaining schedule per the BPI.
Next game: vs. Vanderbilt (Wednesday)
Long shots
Oklahoma Sooners
LSU Tigers
ACC
8.1 expected bids; 7.1 at-large
Locks (5)
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
Louisville Cardinals
North Carolina Tar Heels
Clemson Tigers
Should be in (3)
NC State Wolfpack
Updated: Feb. 14, 6:17 p.m.
After satiating our criteria for a “lock,” with a 98% consensus at-large chance after a run of eight wins in nine games (including a pair of Quadrant 1A victories), back-to-back losses to Louisville and Miami have NC State back in “should be in” territory. The Wolfpack still rank inside the top 30 nationally in the predictive and résumé ratings, including sixth on the résumé list in an ACC tracking for eight bids. But they also face a significantly tougher remaining schedule (fourth hardest in the conference) than the ACC’s other bubble hopefuls.
Next game: vs. North Carolina (Tuesday)
SMU Mustangs
Updated: Feb. 14, 4:13 p.m.
Just when the Mustangs seemingly bounced back from consecutive losses to Louisville and NC State with a pair of wins over Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, they faltered late as road favorites at Syracuse on Saturday, blowing a double-digit second-half lead to lose for the third time in five games. Still, they rank seventh in what should be an eight-bid ACC on résumé. And while they are seventh in the conference (37th nationally) in the predictive ranking, they have the nation’s 71st-hardest remaining schedule, which is good for managing a status quo that likely resides above the bubble if the bracket were set today with an 86% consensus at-large chance. But their tournament chances are not as high as they were a few weeks ago.
Next game: vs. Louisville (Tuesday)
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 14, 6:17 p.m.
The Hurricanes’ chances had dipped after a trio of recent losses, but three straight wins have coach Jai Lucas’ team back on the rise, with back-to-back résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina and at NC State. The Hurricanes have a top-40 résumé quality nationally (eighth in the ACC), and their consensus model at-large chances are up roughly 30% over the past three weeks, a positive trend at a critical point in the season. The BPI has them facing the 69th-hardest remaining schedule, with three more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (of which they already have four).
Next game: vs. Virginia Tech (Tuesday)
Work to do (2)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: Feb. 14, 4:05 p.m.
Coming off a huge road win over a Quadrant 1A foe in Clemson on Wednesday, Virginia Tech ran out of gas against Florida State on Saturday, getting outscored 48-20 over the final 17:24 to lose by 23 at home. The Hokies still have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that resides just outside the top 40. But conditional at-large chances below 30% suggest they are in serious limbo without additional résumé boosters.
Next game: at Miami (Tuesday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 14, 1:53 p.m.
Back-to-back losses to Clemson then in double overtime to Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but a convincing victory at Boston College got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins (including one Quadrant 1A) and face the ACC’s easiest remaining schedule. Either way, with a consensus at-large probability in the teens, the Bears certainly have “work to do.”
Next game: vs. Stanford (Saturday)
Long shots
Stanford Cardinal
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Syracuse Orange
BIG 12
7.4 expected bids (6.4 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Texas Tech Red Raiders
BYU Cougars
Should be in (1)
UCF Knights
Updated: Feb. 14, 8:31 p.m.
With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids being effective locks — the six teams listed above each have at least 99% conditional at-large chances in the model consensus — the conference’s bubble picture really comes down to who could be the seventh bid. The Knights remain in control of that slot despite three straight losses to Houston, Cincinnati and West Virginia, but their grip is loosening. As a result of this string of defeats, they are no longer tracking for more than 20 wins and have fallen outside the top 30 in the résumé average (though only one other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even inside the top 50). Good news for the Knights is that they face the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the conference.
Next game: vs. TCU (Tuesday)
Work to do (2)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: Feb. 14, 2:40 p.m.
After a recent losing skid in Big 12 play, the Horned Frogs responded with a trio of big wins over Kansas State, Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road in overtime. Their case is interesting: Although they sit with consensus at-large chance in the 40% range, they have five Quadrant 1 wins (including a pair of Quadrant 1A wins over Florida and Iowa State), and the chance to add another coming up against UCF, despite playing the Big 12’s fifth-easiest remaining schedule (53rd hardest nationally). They are building a case to be the Big 12’s eighth tournament team.
Next game: at UCF (Tuesday)
West Virginia Mountaineers
Updated: Feb. 14, 8:31 p.m.
West Virginia still faces an uphill battle to return to the tournament for the first time since 2023, but its win at UCF on Saturday certainly helps. The model consensus still sets the Mountaineers’ chances at an at-large bid around 25%, and they are barely flirting with the top 60 in résumé rankings while only a little better in the predictive ranking. But they do have four wins against Quadrant 1 foes — including one against Quadrant 1A Kansas last month — and will have a chance to control their destiny by adding more in the coming weeks.
Next game: vs. Utah (Wednesday)
Long shots
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Baylor Bears
Cincinnati Bearcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
BIG EAST
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Should be in (0)
None
Work to do (1)
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: Feb. 11, 9:27 p.m.
Just when the season seemed to be slipping away from Shaheen Holloway and his team with six losses in eight games, the Pirates outlasted Providence on Wednesday in a game with exactly one lead change — midway through the second half. They still have a steep hill to climb, sitting slightly below 20% at-large chances in the forecast composite, and ranking outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win (against NC State). An at-large bid will be hard to argue for if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation, though the Pirates have a few more high-profile chances left to make their case.
Next game: at Butler (Sunday)
Long shots
Creighton Bluejays
OTHERS
Locks (3)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Should be in (1)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.
Saint Mary’s hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament in five seasons, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 32nd in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 84% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than that of Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 at Saint Mary’s.
Next game: at Seattle (Wednesday)
Work to do (5)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: Feb. 14, 7:41 a.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same season that Wally Szczerbiak led the RedHawks to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat itself? After Arizona lost earlier this month, Miami is the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I and ranks inside the top 40 on résumé as a result. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a nonpandemic season. It is true that Miami is a borderline mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron still ranks higher in the MAC) that has run up an undefeated record against the 336th-hardest schedule in the nation. But wins are wins, and Miami got that much closer to running the table on Friday, cruising at home against Ohio. Tuesday’s game against UMass is the RedHawks’ lowest-probability remaining hurdle, per Bart Torvik.
Next game: at Massachusetts (Tuesday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 15, 7:54 a.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant down the stretch, as we debate whether the WCC could get three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. The Broncos’ chances had been on the rise after a recent stretch of nine consecutive wins (and 13 in 14 games), but a tough back-and-forth loss to Gonzaga on Saturday dropped their consensus at-large chances to 66%. They own the 41st-best résumé ranking and a head-to-head win over Saint Mary’s but are projected to finish with two fewer wins than the Gaels. Santa Clara’s fate may rest on the Feb. 25 rematch at Saint Mary’s, and how much the selection committee values head-to-head wins.
Next game: at San Francisco (Saturday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 15, 8:10 a.m.
The Aztecs beat Nevada on Saturday to capture their third straight win game but are still one of the bubbliest of bubble teams. They sit 45th nationally in the résumé rankings and their consensus at-large chances are 65%. The conference could feasibly send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances over the next-best Mountain West team (New Mexico at 43%), San Diego State would figure to be in decent enough shape if it keeps winning.
Next game: vs. Grand Canyon (Tuesday)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 15, 8:10 a.m.
Seeking a third straight NCAA tournament trip for the first time in more than a decade, the Lobos no longer have the inside track to being the Mountain West’s second-most-likely entrant with their consensus at-large odds sitting below 50%. The primary blemish is their head-to-head loss at San Diego State on Jan. 17, which they won’t have a chance to avenge until they play host on Feb. 28.
Next game: vs. Air Force (Tuesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: Feb. 14, 8:25 p.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit in the 25-30% consensus at-large range) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season, in part because the Rams are 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents with only one remaining shot at changing that (at Saint Louis on Friday). However, they are right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-to-high 40s nationally), and their remaining schedule is soft enough for more wins, so they can certainly strengthen their case. With a 78-67 victory at Richmond on Saturday, the Rams have now won nine in a row and 14 of 16.
Next game: vs. George Washington (Tuesday)
Long shots
Boise State Broncos (MW)
Belmont Bruins (MVC)
Nevada Wolf Pack (MW)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (American)
Liberty Flames (C-USA)
Grand Canyon Lopes (MW)
George Mason Patriots (A-10)
McNeese Cowboys (Southland)
Glossary of terms
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
