NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 15 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 15 slate, including the Browns taking on the Chiefs, the “Pennsylvania State Championship” and the Bills visiting the Lions. It all culminates with a pair of “Monday Night Football” matchups — the Bears visit the Vikings (8 p.m. ET) on ABC/ESPN+ and the Falcons take on the Raiders (8:30 p.m. ET) on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
KC-CLE | CIN-TEN | WSH-NO
BAL-NYG | DAL-CAR | NYJ-JAX
MIA-HOU | IND-DEN | BUF-DET
PIT-PHI | NE-ARI | TB-LAC
GB-SEA | CHI-MIN | ATL-LV
Thursday: LAR 12, SF 6
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: KC -4.5 (43.5 O/U)
Chiefs storyline to watch: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been sacked 13 times in the past three games and already more times (35) than ever in a season (his previous high was 28 in 2021). Now, the Chiefs face reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett with a shaky tackle situation. Mahomes made the passing game work last week against the Chargers despite heavy pressure by throwing many quick passes, but the Chiefs would prefer more big pass plays, which will be difficult to get without improved protection. — Adam Teicher
Browns storyline to watch: Can quarterback Jameis Winston remain patient and stack methodical scoring drives against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-fewest explosive plays (64) in the NFL through Week 14? Winston has provided more explosiveness in the passing game, but he also has been turnover-prone, leading the league with nine interceptions since he took over as the starter in Week 8. Limiting Kansas City’s possessions will be key if the Browns want to pull off the upset. — Daniel Oyefusi
Stat to know: Browns wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has 50-plus receiving yards in six consecutive games, which is the longest of his career.
Bold prediction: Browns cornerback Denzel Ward will surrender no more than one reception to wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Ward is coming off a game in which he wasn’t even targeted, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and I expect the Chiefs will have to rely on their other playmakers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs have a 77% chance to earn the top seed in the AFC, per ESPN Analytics. That rises to 87% with a win and falls to 61% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Chiefs | Browns
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco. With windy, rainy weather expected in Cleveland, the Chiefs might lean heavily on the running game. Pacheco had 16 touches last week in just his second game back from a fractured fibula. Expect a similar workload. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their past seven games. No team has won the Super Bowl in the same season it had a six-game ATS losing streak. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 24, Browns 17
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 23, Browns 20
Walder’s pick: Browns 26, Chiefs 23
FPI prediction: KC, 58.8% (by an average of 3.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mahomes on upcoming schedule: ‘Not a good feeling’ … Haslam backs Stefanski, GM, will look at all else … .Five players Cleveland could be evaluating for 2025
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CIN -5 (46.5 O/U)
Bengals storyline to watch: Quarterback Joe Burrow is going up against one of his most imposing foes in Titans defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons. Simmons has 3.5 sacks and 10 pressures in three career games versus the Bengals, including Cincinnati’s playoff win in 2021, and Burrow has a 0.4 QBR when Simmons gets the first pressure. But Burrow is ready: “This year, I’m making plays at a much higher rate than I ever had before outside of the structure.” — Ben Baby
Titans storyline to watch: Ja’Marr Chase leads all wide receivers in receptions (93), yards (1,319) and touchdowns (15), but the Titans’ pass defense is tops in the league, allowing 175.5 yards per game. Rookie cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is looking forward to the matchup. “He’s one of the top receivers,” he said. “You live for moments like this. Every week has been a challenge for me as a rookie, but this week is an opportunity to keep putting the NFL on notice.” — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Titans’ loss to the Jaguars last Sunday clinched their third straight season with 10 or more losses. It’s the first time the franchise has done that since 1983 to 1986, when the team was the Houston Oilers.
Bold prediction: The Bengals will score 40-plus points. I have very little faith in this Titans team that ranks 25th and 24th in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, since Week 10, and Cincinnati has the capability to be exceptional. — Walder
What’s at stake: Although the Titans have been knocked out of the playoffs, the Bengals still have a 3% chance at the postseason after their Monday night win over the Cowboys. Read more.
Injuries: Bengals | Titans
Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tony Pollard. He thrives with volume. This season, he’s averaging 14.4 fantasy points per game when he gets 16-plus touches. The Bengals’ defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.4%) and just allowed 141 total yards to Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle on 19 touches. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals are 4-0 ATS as road favorites this season. Burrow is 12-4 ATS as a road favorite in his career. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 35, Titans 20
Moody’s pick: Bengals 35, Titans 21
Walder’s pick: Bengals 42, Titans 14
FPI prediction: CIN, 61.8% (by an average of 4.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Burrow laments violations of privacy after home break-in … Titans playing for pride despite no playoffs, focused on Bengals
1:39
How do the Bengals proceed with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins?
Domonique Foxworth and Dan Graziano break down the future of the Bengals after a disappointing 2024 season.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: WSH -7.5 (43.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: Cornerback Marshon Lattimore will probably make his Commanders debut this week against the team that traded him Nov. 5. Lattimore has missed his past five games because of a hamstring injury. Washington has been mum on how it will use him, but the Commanders know he has excelled at press man coverage. In the first 13 games, Washington ranked 13th in number of times it played press man; as Lattimore settles in, that number should increase. — John Keim
Saints storyline to watch: Quarterback Derek Carr is both in the concussion protocol and nursing a hand injury that could cause him to miss time. On Thursday, a source told ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler that, after interim coach Darren Rizzi held an open competition in practice this week, the Saints plan to start Jake Haener over rookie Spencer Rattler if Carr is ruled out. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Saints running back Alvin Kamara is 62 rushing yards from reaching the first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career.
Bold prediction: Someone will return a kickoff for a touchdown. The Commanders and Saints rank last and second-to-last in terms of most kick return yards allowed over expectation at 287 and 147, respectively, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Commanders have an 85% chance to make the postseason, per ESPN Analytics, and those odds would rise to 92% with a win and fall to 68% with a loss. The Saints have less than a 1% shot to make the playoffs. Read more.
Injuries: Commanders | Saints
Fantasy X factor: Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. The Saints’ defense gives up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Robinson has been on fire, scoring 14-plus fantasy points in two of his past three games. With Austin Ekeler (concussion) on IR, expect Robinson to get a heavy workload. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints are 0-6 outright and ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 28, Saints 21
Moody’s pick: Commanders 30, Saints 13
Walder’s pick: Commanders 24, Saints 6
FPI prediction: WSH, 69.9% (by an average of 7.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Commanders WR Brown out with ‘significant’ injury … Saints QB Carr ‘week-to-week’ with hand injury, concussion … How Washington got its offense rolling again
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -16 (42.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to watch: This has the makings of a huge day for running back Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ rushing attack. The Giants are giving up 4.9 yards per carry this season, which is tied for the franchise’s second-worst performance over the past two decades. Baltimore is averaging 5.72 yards per rush attempt, which is the second best in NFL history behind the 1963 Browns. — Jamison Hensley
Giants storyline to watch: With Tommy DeVito starting at quarterback, the Giants will try to get the ball downfield, especially against the Ravens’ 32nd-ranked pass defense. Baltimore has allowed 264.9 passing yards per game this season. In the three games since moving on from Daniel Jones, the Giants have attempted 13 passes of 20-plus yards with DeVito and Drew Lock, who is out with a heel injury, at quarterback, seventh most in the NFL. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has 29 passing touchdowns this season, which is the second most in the NFL behind Joe Burrow’s 33 and already his most since having 36 in his unanimous MVP season in 2019.
Bold prediction: Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. will record fewer than 30 rushing yards. The Ravens have the highest-ranked run defense in terms of EPA per play, and there’s a pretty good chance the Giants will fall behind early and start throwing downfield. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Ravens are still in the hunt for the AFC North crown, holding a 20% chance to win the division compared with the Steelers’ 80%. Their odds improve to 23% with a win and fall to 6% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Ravens | Giants
Fantasy X factor: Malik Nabers. He is coming off a strong Week 14 performance in which he had 14.9 fantasy points, playing 93.2% of the snaps and running routes on 90% of the Giants’ 51 pass plays. Now, he faces a Ravens defense that is giving up the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The past eight road favorites of 14-plus points are 1-7 ATS, with three outright losses. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Giants 17
Moody’s pick: Ravens 34, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Giants 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 81.5% (by an average of 13.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Ravens say WR Johnson’s suspension isn’t a distraction … Giants coach Brian Daboll, GM Joe Schoen are in the spotlight
1:15
Schefter to McAfee: Strange to see Justin Tucker struggling
Adam Schefter talks to Pat McAfee about Justin Tucker’s struggles kicking for the Ravens this season.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CAR -3 (43.5 O/U)
Cowboys storyline to watch: Last week’s loss to Cincinnati left the Cowboys as down as they have been all season, so how do the players respond on a short week against the Panthers, who have played better of late? The players have continued to battle under coach Mike McCarthy, but this will be his biggest challenge to date with leaders such as quarterback Dak Prescott (hamstring) and Zack Martin (ankle) out for the season. A two-game winning streak had the Cowboys dreaming of a playoff run. At 5-8, they are not out of the chase yet, but a loss to the Panthers would mean their first sub-.500 finish since 2020. — Todd Archer
Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers are favored for the first time in 34 games, going back to 2022 against the Steelers. They lost that game, but the fact they are favored this week shows how well they’ve played in three consecutive close losses, including 22-16 last week at Philadelphia. Quarterback Bryce Young is a big reason. His 60 Total QBR since Week 9 is better than Patrick Mahomes’ and better than those of the three other QBs in the NFC South. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Cowboys and Panthers have two of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Carolina ranks last in rush yards allowed per game (170.1), and Dallas ranks 30th (141.9).
Bold prediction: Panthers edge D.J. Wonnum will record a sack. He has recorded three in four games, and he should win his matchup against either Chuma Edoga or Tyler Guyton. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Panthers hold a 10.5% chance to get the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft, which are the third-highest odds, per ESPN’s FPI, behind those of the Giants (41%) and Patriots (24%). Their chances increase to 19.1% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Cowboys | Panthers
Fantasy X factor: Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle. He’s coming into his own this season, rushing for more than 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career. Dowdle has had 18 or more touches and 15 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. No other defense allows more fantasy points per game to running backs than the Panthers do. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: First-half overs in Panthers games are 11-1-1 this season, which is the best mark in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Panthers 27, Cowboys 23
Moody’s pick: Panthers 28, Cowboys 24
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 19, Panthers 16
FPI prediction: DAL, 52.9% (by an average of 1.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chasing 1,000 yards, RB Dowdle a rare bright spot for 5-8 Cowboys … Will Dalton return to back up Young at quarterback? … Panthers early favorites vs. Cowboys; first time since 2022
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NYJ -3.5 (43.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to watch: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is coming off his most prolific game of the season (339 passing yards) as the Jets’ offense continues to show signs of improvement. New York has scored 74 points in the past three games, a relative explosion. The Jaguars are allowing a league-high 391 yards per game, but they play a lot of man-to-man coverage — and that causes problems for the Jets. Rodgers ranks 29th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks in QBR (45) against man-to-man. — Rich Cimini
Jaguars storyline to watch: In his past five starts (three with the Jaguars, two with the Patriots), quarterback Mac Jones is 1-4 and has averaged 145.6 passing yards per game. He also has thrown eight interceptions with zero TD passes, and his teams have scored a combined 36 points. Now, he faces a Jets defense that ranks fourth in yards allowed per game (306.8) and passing yards allowed per game (186.9). — Michael DiRocco
Stat to know: The Jaguars’ defense ranks last in yards allowed per game (396.1). That’s on pace to be Jacksonville’s second-highest yards per game allowed through a season in franchise history (2020, 417.7).
Bold prediction: Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. will record 100-plus receiving yards. He has gotten double-digit targets in each of the past two games, which is what Jacksonville needs to do. And even if Sauce Gardner (hamstring) plays, he is not playing well this season. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Jaguars and the Jets have been eliminated from the playoff race, and both could be picking in the top five of the 2025 draft. They have 54.1% and 36.1% odds, respectively, at a top-five selection, per ESPN’s FPI. Read more.
Injuries: Jets | Jaguars
Fantasy X factor: Rodgers. He had his first 300-yard passing game since Week 14 of 2021 last week. Now, he and wide receivers Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are in a great position against a Jaguars defense that allows the second-most passing yards per game. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jets are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games as favorites, including 1-6 ATS in their past seven games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Jets 21, Jaguars 17
Moody’s pick: Jets 20, Jaguars 13
Walder’s pick: Jets 20, Jaguars 17
FPI prediction: NYJ, 62.9% (by an average of 4.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rodgers acknowledges ‘some sort of curse’ Jets have to snap … Jaguars’ Hines-Allen, Thomas chasing team records vs. Jets … Jets collapse again, extend postseason drought to 14 seasons
0:30
ESPN 30 for 30: ‘The New York Sack Exchange’ trailer
Take a look at the trailer for “The New York Sack Exchange,” detailing the New York Jets’ dominant defensive line of the 1980s.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -3 (46.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to watch: Keep an eye on the turnover battle; Houston’s defense intercepts passes at the second-highest rate in the NFL at 3.72%. Miami, on the other hand, has thrown interceptions on just 1.1% of its pass attempts this season — the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions in his past four games and has a 15-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in seven games since returning from injured reserve. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Texans storyline to watch: Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has had the second-most dropbacks (252) against two-split coverage, and the Dolphins run split-safety looks on 47% of opposing quarterbacks’ dropbacks. That could be a problem for Stroud, as he has a QBR of 36 (30th) when facing split-safety coverages and is completing 63% of his passes (27th) with six touchdowns and six interceptions. Also, the Texans have a rushing success rate of 34% against two-high coverage, third worst. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: Tagovailoa has completed 70% or more of his passes in seven straight games, which is the longest streak in Dolphins history and tied for the second longest in a season. Only Joe Montana (eight straight in 1989) has a longer streak since this was first tracked in 1933.
Bold prediction: Texans tight end Dalton Schultz will score a touchdown in his second consecutive game. Of targets against the Dolphins, 24% go to tight ends, which is more than any other NFL team. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Dolphins hold a 14% chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. That increases to 27% with a win and decreases to 4% with a loss. The Texans can clinch the AFC South with a win and an Indianapolis loss. Read more.
Injuries: Dolphins | Texans
Fantasy X factor: Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill. He and Jaylen Waddle are in a great spot this week against the Texans. Houston’s defense allows the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Hill has posted nine-plus targets and 20-plus fantasy points in back-to-back games. Waddle has hit those marks in two of his past three. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 11-2 ATS in the first half this season, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Dolphins 28, Texans 26
Moody’s pick: Texans 31, Dolphins 28
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 23, Texans 20
FPI prediction: HOU, 54.7% (by an average of 1.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Miami keeps slim playoff hopes alive with OT win vs. Jets … How the Texans built a winning foundation to support QB Stroud … Tua hired own security after car break-in … RB Mixon’s production has been key for Texans
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DEN -4 (43.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to watch: Sunday’s game is massive for the Colts because the Broncos are their primary challenger for the final AFC wild-card spot. But the Colts haven’t fared well in pivotal late-season games in recent years. A couple of notable failures include last season’s Week 18 loss to the Texans that determined the winner of the AFC South. And in 2021, with the Colts poised to clinch a playoff spot easily, they shockingly lost to the Raiders and Jaguars in Weeks 17 and 18, respectively, knocking Indianapolis out of the postseason. — Stephen Holder
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos, who lead the league with 47 sacks, must solve Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He is last in the league in completion percentage (47.4%), but he is also continually on the hunt for the big play as he leads the NFL in air yards per attempt (12.1). The Broncos can’t get lulled by the incompletions and let Richardson make the one or two difference-making plays in a game Denver desperately needs to strengthen its playoff chances — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Colts have the second-easiest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL. Only the Falcons have an easier finishing slate.
Bold prediction: Colts edge Laiatu Latu will record a sack. Latu has been improving a little bit each game, with two sacks and a 22% pass rush win rate at edge (eighth highest) since Week 10. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Broncos’ chances at the playoffs increase to 92% with a win and decrease to 50% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. The Colts’ odds at the postseason climb to 53% with a win and fall to 6% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Colts | Broncos
Fantasy X factor: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. He is in a great spot coming out of the bye week. Nix will face a Colts defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game. He has been consistent, scoring 17-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games, including two with 28 or more. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts have covered five straight games after a bye. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Broncos 28, Colts 17
Moody’s pick: Broncos 24, Colts 19
Walder’s pick: Broncos 24, Colts 17
FPI prediction: DEN, 56.5% (by an average of 2.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Colts DB Moore remains a key player … Mims could be X factor in Broncos’ playoff push
0:44
Why Stephania Bell is starting Bo Nix in fantasy
Stephania Bell explains why Bo Nix has been such a force for the Broncos this fantasy season.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -2.5 (54.5 O/U)
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills’ defense rebound from last week’s loss to the Rams? The unit is coming off its worst performance of the season, allowing 44 points and conversions on 11 of 15 third-down attempts. A significant challenge awaits in the league’s highest-scoring offense (32.1 points per game). “I think we’ve got to get back to good fundamental football,” coach Sean McDermott said on the defense bouncing back. “I think that’s really where it starts and playing with a certain attitude.” — Alaina Getzenberg
Lions storyline to watch: The Lions are aware that this could be a Super Bowl LIX preview, but the mindset entering this week isn’t any different. Three of the four NFC North teams have at least nine wins, so Detroit has been tested within its division en route to clinching a playoff spot already. Safety Kerby Joseph is one of the guys in the locker room who isn’t allowing teammates to make this game any bigger than what it is. “Going against a team like this, I feel like they’ve got guys, but we’ve got guys also,” Joseph told ESPN. “It’s just a competition to go head-to-head against the best.” — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Bills have scored 30-plus points in seven straight games, which is the longest streak in franchise history and one shy of the longest in NFL history.
Bold prediction: The Lions will block a punt. The Bills are allowing a 14% pressure rate on punts, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s the second-highest rate in the league, behind only the 49ers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Lions have a 75.7% chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to ESPN Analytics, which increases to 84.9% with a win. The Bills’ odds of earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC increase to 30% with a win. Read more.
Injuries: Bills | Lions
Fantasy X factor: Lions running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. This duo is on fire this season, averaging 32.6 touches and 34.6 fantasy points per game behind a Detroit offensive line that ranks 13th in run block win rate (71.9%). The Bills’ defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills have gone over their team total in 11 of 13 games, which is the highest mark in the NFL. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 30, Bills 28
Moody’s pick: Bills 33, Lions 30
Walder’s pick: Lions 30, Bills 24
FPI prediction: DET, 57.5% (by an average of 2.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Lions and Bills match up ahead of game of the season … Lions host Bills in possible Super Bowl preview
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -5.5 (43.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: The unofficial Pennsylvania State Championship is going to come down to the trenches. The Steelers, boasting a top-five rushing defense that has limited opponents to 91.5 yards per game, will square off against the league’s leading rusher in Saquon Barkley. On the flip side, Pittsburgh’s young offensive line will face its toughest test of the season against a pair of maulers in defensive tackles Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter. “It’s a great challenge,” offensive coordinator Arthur Smith said. “It’s what you want. You don’t want things to be easy. If we’re going to get to where we want to go, we have to get through these challenges.” — Brooke Pryor
Eagles storyline to watch: The core issue that sparked the Jalen Hurts-A.J. Brown drama is the team’s slumping pass game. Reliant on Barkley and the ground attack, Philadelphia is last in the NFL in passing attempts (328) and 31st in passing yards (2,348). Establishing a rhythm between Hurts and his receivers has been a challenge. There is an urgency to get the aerial game humming before the playoffs. “We’re working on it,” tackle Jordan Mailata said. “I’m excited for this week.” — Tim McManus
Stat to know: The Steelers have lost 10 consecutive road games versus the Eagles, dating to 1965. That is tied for their longest road losing streak against a single opponent in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Brown will receive at least four first-quarter targets. In an effort to squash the potential strife over Philadelphia’s passing game, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles try to force the ball to Brown early. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Steelers can clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie. They can also reach the postseason this weekend with a Miami loss or tie and an Indianapolis loss or tie. Read more.
Injuries: Steelers | Eagles
Fantasy X factor: Barkley. He is averaging 22.7 touches and 23.1 fantasy points per game. Though the Steelers have done well limiting running back production, Philly’s offensive line — ranked eighth in run block win rate (73.4%) — should create running lanes for Barkley against Pittsburgh’s defensive front. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers have won seven straight games as underdogs, tied for the second-longest streak since the 1970 merger. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Steelers 24, Eagles 22
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Steelers 23
Walder’s pick: Steelers 26, Eagles 24
FPI prediction: PHI. 60.5% (by an average of 4.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Steelers entering toughest phase of the season … QB Hurts, WR Brown clear air, say Graham ‘misspoke’
1:36
Mike Tomlin cites experience as reason he chose Russell Wilson as Steelers’ QB
Mike Tomlin explains to Pat McAfee why he made the decision to pick Russell Wilson as the Steelers’ starting quarterback.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: ARI -6 (46.5 O/U)
Patriots storyline to watch: Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye (345 yards, 1 TD) and Cardinals sixth-year quarterback Kyler Murray (444 yards, 4 TDs) have combined for 789 rushing yards and five rushing TDs this season. This reflects how both teams’ defensive plans to limit QB scrambles could be the key. Before the Patriots’ bye, Maye’s 41-yard run in a Week 13 loss to the Colts tied for the third-longest run by a quarterback in Patriots history. — Mike Reiss
Cardinals storyline to watch: This might be the game the Cardinals’ offense breaks out of its red zone rut. Arizona’s red zone rate in the past three games, all losses, is 18.2% compared with 63.3% in the first 10 games when Arizona was 6-4. It’s hosting a Patriots team that is tied for 21st in red zone defense, allowing a rate of 60.9%. Helping the Cardinals’ chances of finding their red zone rhythm is the Patriots’ defensive struggles in goal-to-go situations. They’ve allowed touchdowns on 80% of chances while Arizona has scored touchdowns on just 25% of its red zone trips in the past three weeks. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Cardinals have lost three games in a row (Weeks 12-14) after a four-game winning streak. During that span, their 15.3 points per game ranks 29th in the league.
Bold prediction: Cardinals kicker Chad Ryland will miss a kick — field goal or PAT — from 45 yards or closer against his old team. Ryland, who missed a 40-yard field goal last week, is ranked last among active kickers in ESPN Analytics’ kicker ratings. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Cardinals still have a narrow chance at the postseason with 9% odds. That increases to 10% with a win and drops to 4% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Patriots | Cardinals
Fantasy X factor: Patriots tight end Hunter Henry. He has been the Patriots’ most reliable pass catcher this season. He leads the team with 83 targets and 610 receiving yards. Henry has seen eight or more targets in three straight games and should stay busy against the Cardinals. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 6-2 when Maye starts, and three straight Patriots games have gone over the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 24, Patriots 17
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 20, Patriots 19
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 21, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: ARI, 71.8% (by an average of 8.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: How QB Maye has evolved into leader Patriots need … Cardinals in search of answers as losing streak reaches 3
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (45.5 O/U)
Buccaneers storyline to watch: The Bucs have won three straight games to get to 7-6 and move ahead of the Falcons into first place in the NFC South. This is arguably their toughest remaining opponent, as it’s the only one with a winning record. The Chargers’ defense makes this particularly challenging for quarterback Baker Mayfield & Co. Los Angeles allows a league-low 15.9 points per game and has given up only 15 passing touchdowns this season. — Jenna Laine
Chargers storyline to watch: The Chargers haven’t lost back-to-back games since Weeks 3 and 4, when they fell to the Chiefs and Steelers, respectively. Part of the reason they lost those games was that quarterback Justin Herbert had a high right ankle sprain. Herbert is navigating another ankle sprain this week, this time to his left ankle. If Herbert plays, he could be limited as a runner, which could hurt the Chargers’ chances and lead them to dropping two games in a row for the second time this season. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Bucs are riding a three-game win streak after losing four straight from Week 7 to Week 10. They’ve rushed for at least 150 yards in all three games, which is tied for the longest streak in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard will be held to fewer than 10 yards. Chargers defensive back Derwin James Jr. has allowed just 0.6 yards per coverage snap this season, which is the lowest among players who primarily line up in the slot and have played at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Buccaneers hold a one-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South. Their chances to win the division title increase to 87% with a win and fall to 63% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Chargers
Fantasy X factor: Herbert. He has been quiet lately, averaging just 13.1 fantasy points per game over the past three. But the Buccaneers’ defense gives up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. With wide receiver Ladd McConkey back in the mix, Herbert is in a great spot. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 10-3 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 24, Buccaneers 20
Moody’s pick: Chargers 24, Buccaneers 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 24, Buccaneers 16
FPI prediction: LAC, 51.5% (by an average of 0.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs control playoff fate with four games left … S Winfield Jr. has knee sprain, out couple weeks
1:30
Bucs All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs spreads holiday cheer by visiting patients
Bucs All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs spreads holiday cheer by visiting patients at Muma Children’s Hospital in Tampa, Fla., where his son Julius was born. As part of the hospital’s “Operation Santa” campaign, he’s matching all donations up to $25,000.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -2.5 (45.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: Running back Josh Jacobs has 11 rushing touchdowns this season, including seven over the past three games — tied for the second most in a three-game span in Packers history. Though the Seahawks have allowed 4.7 yards per carry (only six teams have allowed more per carry this season), they have given up just 10 rushing touchdowns this season (seventh fewest). And the last time Jacobs played against the Seahawks (as a member of the Raiders in 2022), he totaled 303 yards from scrimmage, including 229 rushing and two touchdowns in an overtime win. — Rob Demovsky
Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks’ embattled offensive line is coming off its best performance of the season. In addition to paving the way for 176 rushing yards in the win over Arizona last week, the group allowed only two quarterback hits and a 16.7% pressure rate — both season lows — and did not allow a sack for the first time this season. The Cardinals don’t have an elite pass rush, but neither do the Packers, who are 28th in pressure rate and 26th in pass rush win rate. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Packers have not lost to a team outside of their division since Week 1 against the Eagles.
Bold prediction: The Seahawks will record an interception against quarterback Jordan Love by disguising their safety shell. Seattle employs a safety disguise — pivoting from single-high to two-high or vice versa — 31% of the time, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. Green Bay has the 29th-highest EPA per dropback against safety disguise plays. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Packers have all but secured a spot in the playoffs with 99% odds. The Seahawks can improve their chances to 73% with a win, but those chances fall to 45% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Packers | Seahawks
Fantasy X factor: Jacobs. With a tough road test in Seattle, establishing the run through Jacobs will be important. Since the Packers’ bye, Jacobs has 18-plus touches and 20-plus fantasy points in four straight games. Seattle’s defense allows the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Seahawks have covered four straight games as underdogs. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Packers 19, Seahawks 17
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 26, Packers 19
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 20, Packers 17
FPI prediction: GB, 62.5% (by an average of 4.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why WR Reed didn’t get a catch in Packers’ loss to Lions … Reemergence of run game powers Seahawks to fourth straight win
Monday, 8 p.m. ET | ABC/ESPN+ | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (43.5 O/U)
Bears storyline to watch: Quarterback Caleb Williams had a strong performance against the Vikings’ pressure in Week 12, recording his first multi-touchdown game against the blitz (9-of-12 for 128 yards, 2 TDs). The Bears combatted the pressure by putting Williams in situations to get the ball out quickly, leading to his lowest time to pass (2.42 seconds). The rematch might provide the backdrop for another successful day for Williams establishing a deep passing attack. He was 5-of-12 for 141 yards on passes with 15-plus air yards against Minnesota, his most completions on those passes in a game to date. — Courtney Cronin
Vikings storyline to watch: The Bears gained 398 yards against the Vikings’ defense in the Week 12 matchup. In the two games since, the Vikings have given up 406 and 496 yards to the Cardinals and Falcons, respectively. Yards allowed don’t tell the entire story of any scheme, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores has responded with some urgency. He has mixed more young players into his personnel rotations and even set aside a practice day for tackling drills. If that doesn’t work, the Vikings will need continued high production from their offense to compensate. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson had 132 receiving yards with two touchdowns in Week 14 against the Falcons. He has never had back-to-back games with multiple receiving touchdowns in his career.
Bold prediction: Vikings linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel will record his third defensive touchdown of the season. It’s just a feeling, but I’ll happily bet on this Vikings defense against the Bears’ offense any day. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Vikings can reach the playoffs with a win or a tie. They can also clinch a spot this weekend if the Rams either lose or tie against the 49ers, or the Seahawks either lose or tie against the Packers. Read more.
Injuries: Bears | Vikings
Fantasy X factor: Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze. He is coming off his second-best fantasy performance of the season, putting up 20.2 points in Week 14. He’s in a great spot against a Vikings defense that allows the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Odunze has also averaged 0.96 fantasy points per target this season. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 0-6 outright on the road this season (2-4 ATS). Unders are 5-1 in Bears road games this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 30, Bears 20
Moody’s pick: Vikings 34, Bears 27
Walder’s pick: Vikings 31, Bears 13
FPI prediction: MIN, 65.3% (by an average of 6.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bears seek answers after losing interim coach Thomas Brown’s debut
1:04
Shannon Sharpe: Vikings shouldn’t pay Sam Darnold
Shannon Sharpe explains why he would not give Sam Darnold a long-term contract despite his stellar season for the Vikings.
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: ATL -4 (44.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to watch: With quarterback Kirk Cousins in the worst slump of his career (eight interceptions in the past four games), the Falcons could look to establish the running game early. Atlanta is one of only two teams in the NFL with two running backs — Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier — exceeding plus-70 rushing yards over expected on designed runs. Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed the second-most rushing yards over expected on designed runs (plus-213) this season. — Marc Raimondi
Raiders storyline to watch: With QB Aidan O’Connell nursing a bone bruise on his left knee, Desmond Ridder might be in line for a revenge game against Atlanta. Ridder, drafted in the third round by the Falcons in 2022, was traded to the Cardinals in March after going 8-9 as a starter in two seasons. He was signed by the Raiders off Arizona’s practice squad in October, two days after O’Connell broke the thumb on his right (passing) hand. So, with Gardner Minshew done for the season because of a broken collarbone, Ridder’s first start for Las Vegas might come against his first NFL team. “God,” Ridder said, “works in mysterious ways.” — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: The Falcons’ four-game losing streak is their longest since 2022. They haven’t lost five straight since 2020.
Bold prediction: Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane will lead the league in tackles in Week 15. Atlanta ranks third in run rate over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and that should play right into Spillane’s favor to rack up numbers. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Falcons had 85% odds of winning their division prior to their four-game losing streak (currently 26%, per ESPN Analytics). Their chances at the NFC South title improve to 37% with a win and fall to 12% with a loss. Read more.
Injuries: Falcons | Raiders
Fantasy X factor: Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. He has had 10-plus targets in three straight games and scored 15-plus fantasy points in two of them. Now, Meyers faces the Falcons’ defense, which has struggled against wide receivers. Only the Ravens have allowed more fantasy points per game to receivers this season. See Week 15 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 0-3 ATS in their past three road games. They are 6-14 ATS in their past 20 road games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Raiders 23, Falcons 20
Walder’s pick: Falcons 26, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: ATL, 55.8% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons’ plan not to rush rookie QB Penix into action … Raiders DE Snowden facing DUI charge … Falcons riding with Cousins despite struggles
