Kursk Invasion A Bargaining Chip Zelensky Says

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces have no immediate plans to leave Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which they entered in a surprise attack on Aug. 6. The roughly 500 square miles Ukraine claims to have seized so far is a bargaining chip, he told NBC News in an exclusive interview.

“Our operation is aimed to restore our territorial integrity,” Zelensky said in his first one-on-one interview since the Kursk incursion began. “We capture Russian troops to replace them with the Ukrainians. The same attitude is to the territories. We don’t need their land.”

That’s something we posited shortly after the operation was launched that might be a major goal.

Zelensky said the move was spurred by Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia was looking to set up a buffer zone along the border.

“We had to make the military operations so that the buffer zone was made not by them, but by us,” he said.

Confirming what the Pentagon told us on Aug. 7, Zelensky said he didn’t inform Washington about his plans before they were activated.

“No, we didn’t inform anybody. And this is not the question of distrust,” Zelensky explained, adding that Kyiv’s counteroffensive last summer failed in many ways because of how much it was advertised and talked about, which gave Russians a chance to prepare. That’s a sentiment a high-ranking retired Ukrainian officer shared with us Aug. 14.

This time, even Ukrainian intelligence services did not know, said the Ukrainian president.

“I shrunk to the maximum the circle of people who knew about this operation,” Zelensky said. “I think it was one of the reasons why it was successful.”

The U.S., which has provided Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars in military aid, now supports the Kursk operation, Zelensky suggested.

“Our partners do know that we have a full right for that because we were protecting ourselves,” he said.

Zelensky declined to say if Ukraine would try to seize more territory.

“I’m sorry, I can’t speak about it,” he told Engel. “It’s like the beginning of our Kursk operation. I think that the success is very close to surprise.”

The invasion helped boost flagging morale and proved Russia vulnerable on its home turf. However, Kyiv runs the danger of this becoming a grinding offensive that will only add pressure to withdraw as Russia continues to advance in the east.

That’s one of the key takeaways from a recent analysis by Michael Kofman (@KofmanMichael), a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Rob Lee (@RALee85), a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“If Russia contains the offensive and focuses on weakening Ukrainian forces with aviation, drones, and only a minimal commitment of troops, then this gambit may not pay off for Kyiv,” the two noted in a piece for Foreign Affairs.

Ukraine’s strategy “does not yet appear fully formed,” they argued. “The country’s military is working out logistics, communications issues, and other necessities for sustaining this salient. It will have to establish a defensible set of positions and a broader but shallower buffer inside Russia.”

The Kursk advances are “likely designed to secure these objectives; the strikes on bridges, for example, are supposed to further isolate Russian forces along the border,” according to Kofman and Lee.

At some point, Kyiv will “have to choose whether to hold what it has or to invest more scarce resources into the operation in an effort to force a much larger Russian effort to counter it.”

This is a large gamble.

“The best-case scenario is that Ukrainian forces will hold Russia to relatively minor gains in Donetsk and retain Kursk with a sustainable force commitment,” they stated. “The offensive could also lead to changes in Western policy on the use of long-range strike weapons and infuse much-needed energy into the West’s thinking on the way forward at this point in the war. The worst-case scenario is that, months from now, Ukraine will have lost significant tracts of land in its east and retained no territory in Kursk that it can use as a bargaining chip. The deeper Ukraine advances into Russia, the greater the risk of overextension.”

Meanwhile, a Russian parliamentarian offered a blistering take on the Kursk incursion, saying that it is worse than Russia is letting on.

“Kurchatov is closed,” he said, referring to the home of the Kerch Nuclear Power Plant. “That is, a special siege regime is imposed there. Do you remember 1941? Moscow under siege. That is the analogy, only milder.”

The fighting, he added, “is moving toward Kurchatov…And this special regime doesn’t protect us from drones, from shelling, from missiles. It protects against sabotage reconnaissance groups. So this means that sabotage reconnaissance groups are expected in the city of Kurchatov at the very least.”

Russia too is making a wager, that it can temporarily allow more risk of loss of land in its own territory to grab more land in Ukraine. As we have previously reported, if Russia captures the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk, it could lead to wider losses for Ukraine in the east, forcing Zelensky to reassess his Kursk initiative. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has withstood criticism that hundreds of square miles of his country are in Ukrainian hands.

The coming weeks will give us a better sense of who placed the better bet.

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Elsewhere on the battlefield, Russia continues to press toward Pokrovsk, though it appears the pace of the advance has slowed.

“Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk amid continued offensive operations east and southeast of the town on September 3,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment. “Geolocated footage published on September 3 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced into southwestern Halytsynivka (southeast of Pokrovsk), and ISW assesses that Russian forces have likely seized the settlement.”

Russia advanced across 184 square miles of Ukrainian territory in August last month alone, according to the Kyiv Post. It was “Moscow’s biggest monthly increase since October 2022,” the publication explained.

In addition to looming territorial losses, as Russia pushes closer to Pokrovsk, Ukraine also faces a serious hit to its coal production, a key resource powering its defense industry.

“Officials say 30,000 people remain, and several hundred leave each day,” The Wall Street Journal reported. “The city’s coal mine, where workers have toiled through the war to produce the black gold that feeds the country’s armaments industry, is now sending some workers to build fortifications on the city’s eastern outskirts. They are digging four lines of trenches to slow the Russian onslaught… Just over half of the mine’s 8,000 employees remain in Pokrovsk”

Russia continues to pay a heavy price for its advances in the east. The video below shows a Ukrainian MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter dropping a salvo of four U.S.-made GBU-39/B Small Diameter Bombs (SDBs) on a Russian position somewhere in the east.

At least 50 people were killed and another 180 injured after a Russian missile strike on the city of Poltava, about 25 miles from the border, according to Ukrainian authorities.

“According to the information available now, two ballistic missiles hit the territory of an educational institution and a neighboring hospital,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address. “One of the buildings of the communications institute was partially destroyed. People were trapped under the rubble. Many were rescued.”

The “Russian scum will undoubtedly be held accountable for this strike,” he added. “And once again, we urge everyone in the world who has the power to stop this terror: air defense systems and missiles are needed in Ukraine, not in a warehouse somewhere. Long-range strikes that can defend against Russian terror are needed now, not sometime later. Every day of delay, unfortunately, means more lives lost. Eternal memory to all whose lives have been taken by Russia!”

“According to available information, the Russians used two Iskander missiles,” Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said on Telegram.

Ukrainian news outlets said that those who died were cadets of the Poltava Institute of Military Communications, The New York Times reported.

“It would not be the first time that Russia attacked Ukrainian troop concentrations,” the publication noted. “Last fall, a Russian missile struck a medal ceremony for artillery troops in the Zaporizhzhia region, killing 19 soldiers in an episode that stirred criticism of the military and civilian leadership.”

Russia used 48N6DM missiles from one of its S-400 air defense systems in a “surface-to-surface” mode to strike Kyiv on Sept. 2, the Ukrainian Defense Express news outlet reported.

The outlet published a photo of the fragments of one of those missiles claiming it was from a 48N6DM missile.

“The particular danger of the 48N6DM missiles from the S-400 is their extremely low accuracy when used in surface-to-surface mode, which primarily threatens civilian infrastructure and residents,” the publication reported.

In July 2022 we reported that Russia began using S-300 air defense missiles to attack ground targets, which you can read more about here.

Russia will soon receive a new tranche of ballistic missiles from Iran, Bloomberg reported.

The move could escalate the war in Ukraine and prompt a swift response from Kyiv’s allies, according to Bloomberg’s anonymous sources.

Iran has also provided Russia with thousands of drones and the two countries signed a licensing deal allowing Russia to produce them domestically. The Russian government has reportedly paid for those drones, at least in part, in gold. The regime in Tehran has also been working to acquire advanced Russian weapon systems, including Su-35 Flanker-E fighters, as part of exchanges in kind.

Several missiles that hit Ukraine recently were provided to Russia by North Korea, according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dymytro Kuleba.

“Russia launched a barrage of 35 missiles and 23 drones into Ukraine early [Sept. 2,], while people were sleeping,” Kuleba said on Twitter. “Fortunately, Ukraine’s air defense saved lives, but civilian infrastructure was damaged. Some of the ballistic missiles fired at Ukrainian civilians this morning were KN-23 [short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs)] from North Korea. The regimes in Pyongyang and Moscow have no restrictions on long-range strikes against any place in Ukraine. However, in defending itself against these two barbaric war machines, Ukraine is forced to fight with hands tied behind its back. Isn’t this absurd?”

Kuleba joined the chorus of Ukrainian officials calling for the U.S. to allow the use of donated long-range weapons on Russian soil.

“It is past time for Ukraine’s partners to abandon baseless fears and lift restrictions on the country’s legitimate right to self-defense under the UN Charter, which includes the right to strike any legitimate military targets on Russian territory,” he said.

North Korea has already been providing artillery shells and missiles to Russia. There are growing concerns that Russian expertise might be used to help with the further development of Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons — as well as other weapons and technologies. The two nations even raised the possibility of Pyongyang sending troops to help Russia in Ukraine.

A new video emerged on social media of Ukraine’s drones dropping what appears to be thermite on Russian positions in a treeline. Previously used in grenades, thermite is a combination of oxidized iron and aluminum that burns at about 4,440 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the Ukrainian Militarnyi news outlet.

The eerie video shows the drone slowly passing over the treeline like some flaming apparition, showers of sparks descending on whatever lies below. During the spring and summer months, both sides use these often thick rows of vegetation to hide. The drone in this video burns a path along one of those areas. It’s an alternative to pounding it with artillery, which has a cost in both shells and the barrels that fire them.

The first recorded use of these new drones appeared on social media Monday, posted by the Ukrainian 108th Territorial Defense Brigade. They used an FPV drone to drop the incendiary substance on a Russian position in a Zaporizhhiza treeline. This video is even more vivid, showing the treeline erupting into flames after the drone passes slowly overhead.

Russia will change its nuclear doctrine based on the analysis of the latest conflicts and the West’s actions in response to its full-on invasion of Ukraine, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told the official Russian TASS news outlet.

“As we have repeatedly said before, the work is in the advanced stage, and there is a clear intent to introduce a correction [to the nuclear doctrine], caused, among other things, by the examination and analysis of the development of recent conflicts, including, of course, everything connected to our Western adversaries’ escalation course in regards to the special military operation,” Ryabkov said.

He added that the corresponding document is being finalized, but it is too early to discuss a specific deadline.

“The timeframe for its completion is a rather complicated issue, considering that we are talking about the most important aspect of our national security,” Ryabkov noted.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has frequently raised the specter of nuclear weapons use in the wake of his invasion.

Putin said earlier that the Russian nuclear doctrine is a live document, which could be amended if necessary, according to TASS. Meanwhile, the Russian leader underscored that Moscow assumes that a nuclear exchange will never happen.

Ukraine used its new long-range jet-powered Palianytsia drone against a military target Crimea for the first time last month, Ukrainian Pravda reported.

The publication could not say where that attack took place or provide any battle damage assessments.

Zelensky said that while his nation is producing its own long-range drones and developing a missile program, more money is needed to invest in these programs.

“We have begun to produce our long-range drones and work on the missile program, and it is also effective,” he said, according to Ukrinform. “We need to invest in our production. The state does not have enough money for mass production. We are already producing a very large number of long-range drones, but in order to stay ahead of Russia, we need more, faster.”

Poland and other countries bordering Ukraine have a “duty” to shoot down incoming Russian missiles before they enter their airspace despite the opposition of NATO, the nation’s foreign minister told the Financial Times.

Warsaw has an obligation to ensure the safety of its citizens, regardless of fears that shooting Russian missiles down over Ukraine could drag NATO into the war, said Radosław Sikorski.

“Membership in NATO does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace — it’s our own constitutional duty,” Sikorski said. “I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on a course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defense [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant.”

Romania’s lower house of parliament approved a draft law on Tuesday greenlighting the donation of a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine, Reuters reported.

NATO member Romania shares a roughly 400-mile border with Ukraine. Russian drone fragments frequently stray into its territory as Moscow attacks Ukrainian ports just across the Danube River.

“The government sent the law to parliament for approval on Monday,” Reuters noted.

Ukrainian State Emergency workers recovered parts of Russian Kinzhal and Kh-101 missiles in Lviv Oblast.

“After the most massive shelling of the territory of Ukraine, they were removed by sappers of the 2nd Special Rapid Response Center of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in the Lviv region,” the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (DSNS) said on Telegram. “Quick and professional actions of the State Emergency Service specialists prevented further destruction and possible casualties among the civilian population.”

DSNS issued a warning to residents, telling them not to approach suspicious items or try to remove or disassemble them.

Operations at the Gazpromneft refinery at Kapotnya in Moscow Oblast have been suspended in the wake of a Ukrainian drone attack on Sept. 1, Reuters reported. The suspension affects the combined refining unit Euro+, which includes crude distillation unit CDU-6.

The plant may resume oil processing after repairs in some five to six days, Reuters added, citing sources.

The Moscow refinery in the southeast of the Russian capital was hit as part of a massive drone attack across Russia.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin initially claimed on Telegram that a “downed drone damaged a separate technical room of the oil refinery as a result of its fall. The local fire is currently being extinguished.”

He later updated the information, saying the “fire at the Moscow Oil Refinery has been localized. There is no threat to people or the operation of the plant.”

You can see videos of the drone striking the plant below.

The Konakovo Power Station in Tver, Russia, was also hit in that attack. The videos below show the moment of impact on the power station and its aftermath. The plant is located about 320 miles from the Ukrainian border and about 100 miles northwest of Moscow.

There were also claims that the nearby Migalovo airfield was attacked. However, it is unclear what, if any damage, was inflicted. Migalovo is home to the Russian 12th Military Transport Aviation Division, which flies Ilyushin Il-76MD Candid airlifters among other aircraft.

The refineries and air base were hit in the biggest Ukrainian drone attack since Russia’s full-scale invasion. The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) claimed on Telegram that it downed 158 Ukrainian drones, including nine over the Moscow area. Ukrainian officials have yet to comment.

The attack on Kapotnya in particular highlighted Russia’s air defense woes, according to University of Oslo doctoral research fellow Fabian Hoffman.

“Keep in mind that Moscow is protected by a ring of 22 S-300/S-400 air defense sites, most of which should cover the refinery,” Hoffman posited on Twitter. “Additionally, there are at least 9 recently redeployed Pantsir S1/S2 systems that should have been able to protect against this type of drone attack. The inability of Russia’s air and missile defense systems to protect against relatively crude long-range one-way drone attacks is surprising. While the S-300/S-400 have demonstrated utility in Ukraine, they appear to consistently underperform in territorial point defense.”

Several Russian troops trying to advance around homes in an unidentified village were killed after being spotted by Ukrainian drones belonging to the National Guard’s 3rd Operational Brigade (Spartans). The Russians were killed by first-person view (FPV) drones and artillery fire, according to the brigade’s Telegram channel.

An analysis of a Russian Kh-69 cruise missile downed by Ukrainian air defenses shows that the weapon contains two electro-optical (EO) guidance sensors, according to a Telegram channel purporting to be run by a Ukrainian military officer.

One is a Digital Scene Mapping and Correlation (DSMAC) sensor that has three lenses and is directed downward at a 90-degree angle, according to the Colonel of the General Staff Telegram channel. That’s designed to navigate the munition to the target using terrain images. The second is a terminal seeker, directed at an angle of 45 degrees and downward. It’s intended for the terminal phase of the attack, matching a pre-inputted image with that of the target to guide it to its final destination.

This makes the weapon essentially impervious to electronic warfare. You can read more about how this works here.

“Instead, it is necessary to consider the options for setting obstacles” to the Kh-69, including “smoke, aerosols, lasers, searchlights, and reflective surfaces.”

On Aug. 30, Ukrainian air defenses downed a new kind of Russian jet-powered drone that was reportedly used to overwhelm the system. The drone was found without a warhead, “optics or other reconnaissance equipment, which essentially turns it into a cheap flying dummy equipped with a jet engine,” the Unian news outlet reported on Telegram. “According to the military, this new jet UAV was probably used to overload our air defenses as a false target.”

The Ukrainian Obosrevatel news outlet said the drone was poorly constructed.

“The level of manufacturing of the drone corresponds to the ‘aviation model circle,’” the outlet said on Telegram. “The control surfaces are attached with door hinges, some rivets are missing, reinforced tape is used to fix the wire laid along the wing.”

Russian troops are seen in this video below building a log-covered enclosure to protect a T-72 tank from Ukraine’s Baba Yaga night bomber drones.

The man in charge of overseeing Ukrainian domestic weapons production was among three ministers who submitted resignations Tuesday.

Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin wrote on Telegram that he was leaving the government, but would still work in the defense industry.

Kamyshin, 40, “was appointed in March 2023 and has spearheaded Ukraine’s effort to ramp up defense production of everything from attack drones to long-range missiles as Kyiv’s forces battle Russia,” according to Reuters. “In the year after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, he carved out an image as an effective wartime manager running the national railways, a vital logistics artery for both civilians and the military.”

In addition, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska and Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets also submitted resignations, Reuters noted.

The resignations are part of one of the biggest government shakeups during Zelensky’s time in office.

Croatia donated another DOK-ING MV-4 robotic demining system. Potentially these can cover 4,000-5,000 square meters of territory per day.

And finally, in an opinion piece for The Washington Post, journalist and policy analyst Anna Husarska called for the Biden administration to allow Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia with long-range donated weapons like Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles.

Husarska wrote about her trips to supply Ukrainian forces and the tremendous toll the war is taking. She noted a large increase in the number of troop graves.

“​​In Kharkiv, I drove to the cemetery and filmed some footage,” she explained. “There seem to be twice as many graves of killed soldiers as I saw there exactly a year ago. I started reading the names, dates of birth and death, calculating ages, looking at the faces — but it was too much.”

“I wish someone in the Biden administration would look at my video and ask themselves, “How many more graves will there be next year if we keep Ukraine from fighting back?”

The piece was accompanied by a video she took of the Municipal Cemetary Number 17 in Kharkiv, which you can see below.

That’s it for now.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com