Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks’ WR Blueprint for Week 4

The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be an RB column, a combination column on the onesie positions and this WR column. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.

It’s impossible to get every ranking thoroughly by Thursday Night Football, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available.

Note: Total-yardage projections are based on betting markets.

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1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (vs. LAC) – 91.5 proj. receiving yards

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (at CAR) – 75.5 proj. receiving yards

3. Ja’Marr Chase (vs. JAX) – 81.5 proj. receiving yards

4. Chris Olave (vs. ATL) – 85.5 proj. receiving yards

5. Drake London (at NO) – 78.5 proj. receiving yards

6. Garrett Wilson (at CHI) – 75.5 proj. receiving yards

Last week was the highest I’ve ranked Wilson entering a week in the past five years, and he came through for us. Wilson made an amazing high-point grab down the field, then had one of the best routes-to-catch-point plays of the season for a fourth-down TD against man coverage. His skills are being featured with a competent QB, and we should largely throw out his career stats because of the lack of good quarterback play he’s had to deal with. Wilson was the WR3 on WR9 usage and elite 38% target share last week, while Mason Taylor, Adonai Mitchell and Omar Cooper Jr. missed. The Jets also lost Breece Hall, further solidifying Wilson as a real fantasy WR1.

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7. Nico Collins (vs. DAL) – 72.5 proj. receiving yards

In 41 games with CJ Stroud, Collins is averaging 14.3 half PPR points (WR6) on WR11 usage and 96 air yards per game. In Week 1 without anyone established at receiver behind him, Collins was the WR9 on WR5 usage and 10 targets. His hamstrings always make us nervous, but the healthy results are that of a mid-range WR1. He’s practiced in each of the first practices this week and told reporters “he’s excited to be back.”

This matchup is excellent. The Texans project for 25.75 points (8th) while at home against a very beatable Cowboys defense. We’ll see if they can get Joey Porter Jr. (back) on the field on a short week, but that’d be pushing things to the extreme. The rest of the secondary has been quite bad in isolation, even beyond the coverage busts. Zay Flowers had 104 yards on a couple dozen routes last week, while Stefon Diggs lit them up for a WR8 finish the week prior.

8. Puka Nacua (at PHI) – 77.5 proj. receiving yards

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This assumes Nacua is playing but is not quite at full health. He will climb up rankings if he gets in multiple full practices. More later.

9. Zay Flowers (vs. TEN) – 68.5 proj. receiving yards

10. Tetairoa McMillan (vs. DET) – 70.5 proj. receiving yards

This assumes Jalen Coker (quad) is out. More later.

11. CeeDee Lamb (at HOU) – 76.5 proj. receiving yards

12. Parker Washington (at CIN) – 73.5 proj. receiving yards

13. Christian Watson (at TB) – 67.5 proj. receiving yards

14. Jaylen Waddle (at SF) – 56.5 proj. receiving yards

The Waddle usage hasn’t lived up to my expectations, though he’s still the WR33 in expected half PPR points on WR23 targets per game (6.7). He did add an end-around for 14 yards with a broken tackle last week, too, but the connection between Bo Nix, Waddle and first-time play-caller David Webb hasn’t been clean. Waddle’s 7.5 YPT is well below his career 9.3 rate. Waddle had a drop, Nix was a bit late on a couple of throws and the Rams played great individual defense on other targets last week.

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Nix and first-time play-callers are notoriously slow starters, so there’s still time to get things right in cleaner matchups after opening up against Spags, Jags and Mc-Duffie/Vay. Waddle will be much better than his WR42 on WR33 usage start, as an upside WR2/3.

15. Tee Higgins (vs. JAX) – 62.5 proj. receiving yards

16. George Pickens (at HOU) – 68.5 proj. receiving yards

17. Davante Adams (at PHI) – 67.5 proj. receiving yards

Unc still got it. Wow.

Adams was extremely impressive in Week 2 against the Giants, but he did roast All-Pro CB1 Pat Surtain II for a monster 7-137-0 game, plus a downfield DPI. He remains an exceptional route runner against off coverage. The surprise is him clocking 20 MPH on a choice route win where he split safeties for an explosive play. Last year’s hammy-laided Adams was not doing that. We should ride this wave while we can, especially with Terrance Ferguson (ankle) “unlikely” to play in Week 4.

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We’re still waiting for any evidence that Puka Nacua does not have a sports hernia or similar injury, too. If Nacua’s injury lingers, Adams in Round 5 will be a “league winner” type of selection if he can stay healthy himself in this age-33 campaign. Adams is the WR16 on WR6 usage since 2025, when Nacua has played, so don’t be surprised if there are fantasy WR1/2 moments even with Nacua expected back.

18. Jordan Addison (vs. MIA)

This assumes Justin Jefferson (ankle) is out.

Addison had a season-high 10.9 expected half PPR points last week without Jefferson, leading to multiple big plays and a WR10 finish on eight targets. Addison has two top-30 seasonal finishes on his résumé with Jefferson being available, so it’s important to not sell his ceiling short in ideal scenarios, even if there are some poor reps against press man coverage on occasion.

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This is one of those scenarios. The Vikings have a 24.5-point team total at home against the Dolphins. They might have the worst secondary of the decade, while also being the youngest defense of the year. Addison should have chances for deep plays here. His role is boom-bust, but there are so many more reasons to believe in the “boom” here.

19. Matthew Golden (at TB) – 57.5 proj. receiving yards

20. Michael Wilson (at NYG) – 57.5 proj. receiving yards

Wilson went crazy in Week 3, and it was nearly a 3-TD game from him on tape. The Cardinals featured him throughout the game. He had three screens, a fourth-and-1 slant win, a 13-personnel play-action first-read target at the goal line for a TD, a diving catch for a first down, consistent wins on breaking routes, a near toe-tap TD and a near Moss TD through a defender’s shoulder pads. He was awesome on film, and his 28.7 expected half PPR points from last week were the seventh-most by a WR this season.

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Wilson is the WR24 on WR7 usage this season after that blowup game, and his lone dud since Week 14 of last year was against the elite Seahawks in Week 2. He has a 28% target share since that Week 14 game. In his last eight games with Marvin Harrison Jr., Wilson has a 22% target share as the WR24 on WR18 usage. That’s a fair range for him right now, but his upside is a tier above that after ending last year as the WR1 overall over a month period.

21. DeVonta Smith (vs. LAR) – 65.5 proj. receiving yards

Smith (hamstring) has not practiced and it’s possible he actually misses this time, per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo.

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The Eagles are running into similar issues right now. They are in third-and-longs too often, and there isn’t enough creativity in the pass game. They should throw out their screens to Makai Lemon and get their top guys in motion, in stacked sets and on rub routes far more than they currently do. Smith is so good in 1-on-1 situations that he can survive as an upside fantasy WR2, but it’s hard to get him higher up than that when there are structural issues. He’s the WR13 on WR23 usage. That feels like a fair baseline for the ball winner.

22. Josh Downs (at WAS) – 62.5 proj. receiving yards

23. Deebo Samuel Sr. (vs. DEN)

This assumes Mike Evans (ribs) is out.

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Hook-and-ladders for 80-yard touchdowns don’t happen ever, but that’s how locked in the 49ers are right now. Samuel showed off great speed on that play, and it’s another sign to trust him while he’s healthy and the rest of the room is banged up. Without Mike Evans (ribs), routes were George Kittle (17-of-19), Samuel (15), KhaDarel Hodge (15), Christian McCaffrey (14), Jacob Cowing (eight) and Jordan Watkins (five). Samuel is still getting the occasional backfield rep while spending about half of his time in the slot. There are plays particularly schemed up for him to get an explosive, though his 15% target share is flirting with no-floor territory on a weekly basis.

24. Rashee Rice (at LV) – 54.5 proj. receiving yards

Rice only had 3.3 expected half PPR points in Week 1 and back-doored into an okay showing in Week 2 with a “free” explosive with no time remaining, but last week was a real sign of life. He has 12.1 expected half PPR points (WR24) on eight targets. A couple of them were designed looks, while others were easy completions underneath against an inexperienced Dolphins defense. Rice doesn’t look fully healthy on tape, yet he’s playing at a high enough level to be a must-start fantasy asset with Patrick Mahomes looking great. The key for Rice will be the Chiefs going away from all those Weeks 1-2 manufactured targets to Xavier Worthy and Kenneth Walker. Those didn’t happen in Week 3 when Rice broke out again. Rice has a 19% target share through three weeks. Hopefully this WR23 on WR50 usage is the floor.

25. Luther Burden III (vs. NYJ) – 46.5 proj. receiving yards

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Burden is not a full-time player (61% snaps, 76% routes in Week 3) because he’s splitting reps in 2-WR sets with Kalif Raymond but that doesn’t prevent Burden from being an upside starter. His 20.4 expected half PPR points from last week were a career high by 8.4 points, and his 26% target share is a team-high. Burden is the WR13 in expected points and WR19 in targets per game. In this potent offense and with his physicality after the catch, there are signs of life as a fantasy WR2/3, even if he had a five-game stretch of under 10.0 half PPR points before Monday Night Football.

26. DJ Moore (vs. NE) – 49.5 proj. receiving yards

There wasn’t a big change in Moore’s role with his AC joint injury. He was still the WR29 in expected half PPR points on eight targets. He didn’t get the super splashy play, but the Bills looked like the dynamic offense we were hoping for and Moore is going to be a major part of that. He’s finished with exactly 11.3 expected half PPR points in his two healthy games and his injury occurred literally in the end zone.

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Moore has a difficult individual matchup this week, however. He’ll see a lot of elite CB1 Christian Gonzalez, who will travel around the field for qualifying top targets. Moore is that compared to the rest of the Bills’ boundary receivers. JSN was able to make the most of his attempts in Week 1, but slot Germie Bernard and slot Jakobi Meyers were the top targets for Patriots’ opponents since then. There will still be scoring chances with the Bills projected for 27.75 points (first). Moore is a boom-bust WR3.

27. Stefon Diggs (vs. IND) – 43.5 proj. receiving yards

Diggs is holding the line as a fantasy starter. He’s the WR16 on WR24 usage so far, and even though he wasn’t designed easy first-read targets last week, he stayed involved as an underneath outlet. He looked quick on a crosser and yards-after-catch opportunity. Diggs also drew a DPI on a comeback route. In general, he’s passing the eye test with flying colors and new OC David Blough did a great job of sliding him across the formation in the previous games. Marcus Mariota is the best backup in the NFL and can be trusted in easier matchups than the one they just had against the Seahawks.

28. Malik Nabers (vs. ARI) – 54.5 proj. receiving yards

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Nabers had an awesome third-and-10 YAC moment that showed some high-end burst, and those will show themselves more often as he continues to get his feet wet. Unfortunately, there are pretty big flaws with his environment. He only has a 23% target share, which is about 10 points lower than his career average.

The Giants also had the lowest neutral pass rate of Week 3 (29%) and were very conservative with their route concepts on top of that. Nabers’ average depth of target was 1.0 yards downfield. One!!! Jameis Winston’s arm might be completely nuked, too. Everything is short, flat and juiceless. I fear the JJ McCarthy trade is partly due to what Jameis’ arm has looked like in two starts, and McCarthy has been a fantasy magician as a starter — in that the fantasy points completely disappear.

I love Nabers, but I fear he is a sell low and can only be viewed as an inconsistent WR3. He’s the WR76 on WR41 usage so far on WR32 targets.

29. Jameson Williams (at CAR) – 50.5 proj. receiving yards

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Look at the up-and-down nature of Jamo’s most recent 10 box scores. This is his reality. Buy low when he’s low. Sell high when he’s high.

There are on/off splits with Sam LaPorta that are making his floor more predictably low on a weekly basis, however. His target share drops from 21% to 16% with LaPorta since 2025. His targets are also further downfield (11.1 aDOT vs. 14.5), so he becomes more boom-bust. His expected half PPR points are at WR16 without LaPorta and then WR55 with him since 2025. This year, Jamo is the WR61 on WR41 expected points. He’s a positive regression candidate, but that would make him a low-end WR3 than must play.

This week is an absolute great week to start him because of the matchup. The Panthers placed CB1 Jaycee Horn and CB2 Mike Jackson on IR, and the rest of their defense has been concerning this season. The Lions are projected for 27.0 points (4th) despite being on the road. It won’t be a surprise if this is his 60-yard TD outing.

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30. Terry McLaurin (vs. IND) – 52.5 proj. receiving yards

McLaurin was excellent on tape. He beat CB2 Josh Jobe over the top for a long TD but also made two incredible grabs on deep out routes on aggressive throws from Marcus Mariota. McLaurin also had a key fourth-down slant win to help ice the game. His film has been as good as usual.

Mariota’s numbers are good enough to trust, even if Stefon Diggs is going to get more layup targets in the OC David Blough offense. Since 2024, Mariota is the QB15 in EPA per dropback, QB10 in success rate, QB4 in completion percentage over expected and QB1 in average depth of throw. The last two stats there are the most integral to McLaurin’s fantasy success. He’s the WR41 on WR20 usage and WR18 targets per game so far, as a buy-low WR3.

31. Devaughn Vele (vs. ATL) – 44.5 proj. receiving yards

32. Ladd McConkey (at SEA) – 47.5 proj. receiving yards

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McConkey was a limited participant with a new foot injury on Wednesday and did not practice the following day. These are the spots to be legitimately nervous about, as it could be a severe injury they haven’t made public. We’ll learn more later on, but there were already a million reasons to be skeptical this week with the Chargers projected for 27.75 points against the Seahawks truly elite defense.

33. Jakobi Meyers (at CIN) – 39.5 proj. receiving yards

34. Keenan Allen (at WAS) – 36.5 proj. receiving yards

Allen was needed against the Texans last week with Alec Pierce (heel) on IR, and he delivered in the most Unc way possible. He scored on a shallow cross in the red zone and beat zone coverage with his instincts and physicality against their backup LBs. He finished as the WR18 on WR13 usage and 9 targets. The Colts offense will pivot to a quick-release pass game without Pierce, and there could be more passes per game as a result. Things will be split between Allen, Josh Downs, and Tyler Warren, but I wouldn’t be quick to rule out Allen, even if he’s not going to run away from anyone and could lose some crucial moments against man coverage on the boundary while Downs plays the slot.

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This week’s matchup with the Commanders is a good one. They could be with some backup LBs if Frankie Luvu (questionable) is joining LB3 Leo Chenal (neck) on the sideline. The Commanders have also allowed the most fantasy points to WRs this year, including massive games to inside-out receivers JSN (WR1 overall) and CeeDee Lamb (WR3 overall). Even Dontayvion Wicks (WR15) got loose. The Colts project for 25.5 points (7th) in London. Sneaky, sneaky start in deep leagues. He had 58 yards against Washington last year in a different offense for what it’s worth.

35. DK Metcalf (at CLE) – 46.5 proj. receiving yards

Metcalf had a 16% target share with Michael Pittman Jr. back in the lineup, after seeing a 26% target share in the first two weeks. Results have been very suspect throughout the year, but Metcalf was designed open on a mesh concept pick for a red-zone score last week in a difficult matchup against shadow CB1 D.J. Turner, who was exploded into pieces on that rep.

The Steelers remain fourth in neutral pass rate (60%) under HC Mike McCarthy, and Aaron Rodgers did get some of the changes implemented last week after losing his mind with outdated pass protection rules the week prior. Metcalf should find himself on the WR3 rollercoaster this year, after opening as the WR54 on WR19 usage. He’s the WR13 in targets per game (8.0) and WR6 in air yards per game (116).

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The matchup is another tough one with CB1 Denzel Ward having a good season. He just slowed down Tetairoa McMillan last week, and there’s a lot of overlap between Metcalf and T-Mac. The Browns have also had quality outings against Emeka Egbuka (WR32) and Brian Thomas Jr. throughout the season; it’s been the secondary pass-catchers that have given the Browns the most trouble. With the Steelers projected for just 20.5 points (25th), Metcalf is a risky WR3 play.

36. Dontayvion Wicks (vs. LAR) – 40.5 proj. receiving yards

This assumes DeVonta Smith (hamstring) is playing, but isn’t himself.

Wicks is only being targeted intermediate and down the field, so his production will be a rollercoaster all year long. He’s not going to lose many snaps to first-round WR Makai Lemon, as the Eagles don’t have the TE bodies to pivot away from these 3-WR sets. Wicks has had between 6.9 and 9.3 expected half PPR points in all three games to start, averaging out as the WR33 on WR47 usage. It’ll be hard to run as hot as he did to open the year, thus he should be treated as nothing more than a fantasy WR4 during the bye weeks. He’s a bench stash and DFS play only.

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37. Malik Washington (at MIN) – 37.5 proj. receiving yards

Washington is the most important skill player with De’Von Achane (ACL) out for the season. He’s the WR21 expected half PPR points on WR16 targets per game (7.7), WR19 air yards per game (92) and WR9 target share (27%). Those numbers were all highest last week after Achane left, too. Washington is lightning quick and even stacked first-round CB1 Mansoor Delane way down the field before Malik Willis overthrew him.

There will be plenty of layup touches to smooth out his box score, as coach Jeff Hafley said Washington has cross-trained WR and RB and has the intelligence to handle everything. Washington is suddenly the biggest “PPR scam” in fantasy and should be the priority pickup in Miami, even over the two RB options.

38. Emeka Egbuka (vs. GB) – 38.5 proj. receiving yards

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Baker Mayfield was having a terrible season, but still — losing him for about a month will sting for everyone in Tampa Bay’s offense. Egbuka has been the WR36 on WR26 expected half PPR points (10.5), scoring exactly 8.8, 8.8 and 8.7 fantasy points as a reliable WR3. There are so many near misses underneath and over the middle to Egbuka on tape. The timing was just not there on some of these zone targets, and it’d be a surprise if an UDFA rookie in his first start was suddenly playing on time.

The Bucs only have an 18.0-point team total in Week 4, but if there’s a saving grace at all, it’s the fact that Egbuka is still getting the bespoke routes in the offense, sometimes off of motion and sometimes to create cavernous space as the primary target. In an alternate universe, Egbuka is an upside WR2 in this role. That’s sadly not this simulation.

39. Kalif Raymond (vs. NYJ) – 31.5 proj. receiving yards

Raymond has been the WR53 and WR38, respectively, in expected half PPR points the last two weeks with Rome Odunze back to his usual near-full-time role. Raymond has played in almost all 3-WR sets as the primary slot player, while rotating in for about half of the snaps in 2-WR sets, splitting time with Luther Burden III. Raymond is sitting in soft spots of zone coverage as one of the primary underneath targets in the offense, and it’s worked! He’s turned WR24 targets into WR14 yards and WR7 receptions. I doubt he will have as many explosives throughout the year, but I don’t see his role completely going away right now as a dart-throw WR4.

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The Bears are projected for 23.5 points with a comfortable game against the Jets on deck. I’m expecting Case Keenum to operate the offense like he did last week.

40. KC Concepcion (vs. PIT) – 35.5 proj. receiving yards

Concepcion is much better than his early-season box scores have indicated. He’s been missed repeatedly by Deshaun Watson on tape, and then he had a key fumble in a YAC moment. He’s turned WR32 usage into WR81 fantasy points this season, and that was with a season-high 10.2 expected half PPR points last week leading to just nine scoreless receiving yards. Huge bummer. There is too much explosiveness with too many underneath looks to not have better days soon, but this is the problem with signing up for the worst offenses in the NFL. His 60% catchable ball rate is unacceptable for having a 5.6 average depth of target.

The Browns project for 18.0 points this week against the Steelers on a short week. Concepcion will face veteran slot CB Jalen Ramsey for a bulk of the game, and Ramsey is attempting to play through a fractured wrist. He will also see some Asante Samuel Jr., which is a matchup that I like Concepcion in. Unfortunately, the Browns’ OL is expected to get whopped by the Steelers’ deep pass-rushing group. Perhaps that means more quick looks to Concepcion, but that also just could mean strip sacks, interceptions and quick punts. I’m just hoping for random spike weeks as a plug-your-nose WR4/5.

41. Michael Pittman Jr. (at CLE) – 34.5 proj. receiving yards

Pittman Jr. only had 5.7 expected half PPR points in last week’s high-scoring outing. He could be more leaned on after Roman Wilson and Germie Bernard have each dropped passes for INTs this year, but some proof of concept is needed before trusting him in redraft leagues as anything more than a WR4/5.

The matchup is a decent one, however. Browns CB1 Denzel Ward will definitely see a lot more DK Metcalf, so Pittman’s matchup could be one the Steelers’ pivot options. That said, the Steelers are only projected for 20.5 points (25th), so aside from single-game DFS, there’s not enough here yet.

42. Denzel Boston (vs. PIT) – 37.5 proj. receiving yards

Boston is the WR17 on WR37 usage this season. He’s had two big plays for scores, highlighting his awesome catch radius and hands. In Week 3, things normalized as the WR49 on WR59 usage with other Browns, like Harold Fannin Jr., getting more involved. Deshaun Watson is still missing a lot of throws and relying on his legs to pick up some first downs, and it’ll be hard to project the 30-yard splash play scores throughout the year.

The matchup with the Steelers is a difficult one because of the obvious DL vs. OL mismatch. The Browns’ inexperienced unit will have their hands full, and Boston’s downfield role could be most impacted. Pittsburgh won’t have CB1 Joey Porter Jr. (Cowboys) and slot CB Jalen Ramsey (wrist) is attempting to play through an injury. Boston will likely see the most of Jamel Dean, who is stylistically similar to Boston. An 18.0-point team total from the Browns is a reason to avoid Boston as a fantasy WR3. He’s a tier down from that, even if I’ve really enjoyed his tape individually.

43. Courtland Sutton (at SF) – 38.5 proj. receiving yards

Sutton is the WR43 in target share (18%) and the WR57 in expected half PPR points (6.9) with Jaylen Waddle coming in as the most-targeted option (24%). There will be some TD outings as the primary big target on the team, but there are too many ancillary pieces to bank on those while the Broncos go through the growing pains of a first-time play-caller. In shallow redraft leagues, Sutton can be dropped for higher upside plays even if he’s a clear WR4/5 based on his skills and usage.

44. Rome Odunze (vs. NYJ) – 32.5 proj. receiving yards

Odunze going from elite contested-catch WR in college to routinely dropping the easiest targets you’ve ever seen in the pros will never be easy to comprehend, but enough is enough. Odunze needs to prove it before being relied on as a fantasy WR3. He’s gone eight straight games without clearing 6.8 half PPR points, and he’s gone under his expected half PPR points in 8-of-10 recent games. There have to be big games coming given his raw talent and his 87% route rate in this high-powered offense. I just can’t explain how he’s been this bad at the catch point.

45. Tre Tucker (vs. KC) – 38.5 proj. receiving yards

46. Romeo Doubs (at BUF) – 39.5 proj. receiving yards

47. Marvin Harrison Jr. (at NYG) – 34.5 proj. receiving yards

There was a notable effort difference in Week 3 to me. He still isn’t getting anything easy in terms of targets and routes, leaving him with just 10% targets. He’s the WR107 on WR96 usage this season, and he’s scored 5.5 or fewer half PPR points in five straight games dating back to last year.

48. Xavier Worthy (at LV) – 33.5 proj. receiving yards

49. Khalil Shakir (vs. NE) – 38.5 proj. receiving yards

50. Carnell Tate (at BAL) – 42.5 proj. receiving yards