The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically every thing that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be a RB column, this WR column and a combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.
It’s impossible to get every rankings thoroughly by Thursday Night Football, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available.
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Note: Total-yardage projections are based on betting markets.
1. Puka Nacua (vs. NYG) – 85.5 proj. receiving yards
Matthew Stafford was brutal in Week 1. He wasn’t seeing things well and made life way harder than needed. That’s the outlier game, and even then, Nacua was the WR11 in expected half-PPR points (13.0) despite not finishing the game with starters on the field.
This week’s matchup is far more normal. First, it’s in the United States. Second, it’s not a divisional opponent from the same coaching tree. Third, the Giants’ starting CBs are in the midst of tryouts for snaps. It’s a cupcake matchup for Nacua, who did something in Week 1 that wasn’t the case in 2025 when he was the clear-cut WR1 overall in fantasy: play in 1-WR set snaps at the goal line. That can’t be understated after Davante Adams goal-line-faded his way to a top-10 fantasy season in 2025 solely off that role.
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2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (at BUF) – 79.5 proj. receiving yards
The Sun God had the best usage of any WR in Week 1, according to my expected half-PPR points model (20.8). New OC Drew Petzig typically highlights a slot/TE type to run his offense through, and that’s absolutely ARSB this year. Meanwhile, the Lions’ OL and DBs are beat up. They’re missing their starting LG, C and RT on offense, and both safeties and possibly a starting CB on defense. Detroit will have to pass more because of that, and Jared Goff has already been the QB2 in passing yards in 3-street seasons.
The matchup is a very good one, too. The Lions are projected for 25.0 points (eighth) as 4.5-point dogs in Buffalo. The Bills have a solid CB1 in Christian Benford, but he’ll be tasked with Jameson Williams as a boundary player, while St. Brown has the best individual matchup. They’ve struggled against slot types recently, to the point that St. Brown has a case to be the WR1 overall in Week 2.
(Photo by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (at ARI) – 81.5 proj. receiving yards
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The drop off from Sam Darnold to Drew Lock is real, but Lock is at least a gunslinger who will give his top guys chances down the field. JSN saved his week one with a hitch against the blitz, where he outran everyone despite a mediocre 40-yard dash time. He still had WR4 expected half-PPR points (17.8) with Lock in a clear win.
This week, the Seahawks are slight favorites with a 22.5-point team total (18th) in Arizona. That defense was surprisingly solid in Week 1 against the Chargers, showing nice communication in zone coverage. They don’t have a star CB1, however, and Ladd McConkey was gashing them for chunk plays before his hospital-ball rib injury. JSN has also been extremely efficient in this exact matchup historically:
(Photo by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
4. Justin Jefferson (at CHI) – 77.5 proj. receiving yards
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In 54 games since 2022 without J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson is the WR3 on WR7 usage, averaging 95 YPG and 107 air yards per game. In six games with Carson Wentz, Jefferson is the WR4 on WR7 usage, averaging 95 YPG and 105 air yards per game. In other words, Wentz has been generally as good at getting Jefferson the ball as the rest of the Vikings QBs recently.
The Bears were a mess in Week 1 with SCB Kyler Gordon and S Coby Bryant sidelined. Jalen Coker finished as the WR1 overall, while Tetairoa McMillan had 119 air yards. This was the same thing that happened in 2025, when the Bears allowed the second-most fantasy points to WRs. With DC Dennis Allen, they’re going to live and die with their man coverage ability. They had the second-highest man coverage rate of Week 1. Long story short, this is a great spot. The Vikings are projected for 22.0 points (19th) in projected negative game script as slight road dogs.
5. Ja’Marr Chase (at HOU) – 75.5 proj. receiving yards
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Chase had the rare dud with Joe Burrow healthy. There were some slight differences in the offense, but nothing too drastic. The Bengals were third in neutral pass rate still. Chase had a fade to the goal line that went incomplete and did stumble at the top of an in-cut on another target, so perhaps he’s still working back from his hyperextended knee in camp. He looked fast in a straight line, caught a screen and hit a toe-tapper on the sideline. Things will even out.
The Texans obviously are a horrible draw for Week 2. The Bengals only project for 21.75 points (20th) in Houston, who have two great CBs to match up with both WRs. In 2025, the Texans were fifth-best against fantasy WRs, allowing just 200 total passing yards to all positions. Chase did face the Texans in Week 10 of 2023 and he hung 5-124-1 on six targets on them, for what it’s worth.
6. CeeDee Lamb (vs. WAS) – 75.5 proj. receiving yards
Lamb had a solid debut against the Giants, who bled out the clock and limited the Cowboys offense to just 34 dropbacks and 52 plays. Lamb had his signature 27% target share and 13.4 expected half-PPR points (WR10), which lines up with his splits next to George Pickens from 2025. Lamb averaged 89 receiving yards per game on a 26% target share, if we remove his two injured games. He was the WR8 on WR6 usage, with the only real difference being he scored 0.25 touchdowns per game rather than his baseline of 0.37.
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The Commanders are running a new chaotic defense, but their secondary remains in pretty tough shape. Mike Sainristil struggled in the opener, and Lamb has averaged 75 yards on 6.9 receptions in seven games against the Commanders since 2022. He had a 5-110-1 game against them just last year. It’s a great spot for Lamb. Dallas has a 27.5-point team total (fifth) at home.
7. George Pickens (vs. WAS) – 62.5 proj. receiving yards
Pickens had a poor Week 1 outing, just as he did in 2025 before lighting up the league the rest of the way. Pickens dropped an in-cut and downfield sideline go ball, and that was the difference. At the same time, Pickens drew a 41-yard DPI on third down and came away with three underneath catches on strong route running. There’s no reason to change our perspective out of Week 1. He had 104 air yards and a 20% target share and 90% route rate. In 14 games with Lamb, Pickens is the WR14 on WR15 usage on a 22% target share, while running less hot than usual on TDs. He’s a low-end WR1.
The matchup with the Commanders is a great one. The Cowboys are fifth in projected points (27.5) while at home, and the Commanders allowed splash plays to Dontayvion Wicks (twice), Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert last week.
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8. DJ Moore (vs. DET) – 63.5 proj. receiving yards
Moore had a very promising debut, beyond just scoring 18.5-half PPR points. His 43-yard TD was out of structure because Josh Allen is a wizard, but he also had a slot target and multiple downfield shots. He drew a 47-yard DPI in the end zone off an under-center play action and another defensive holding down the field, then was given two other prayer shots down the field. That all led to 158 air yards (WR3).
(Photo by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Bills project for the most points of Week 2, and the Lions secondary is extremely beat up. Their top two safeties are out, and CB2 DJ Reed (foot) is questionable. Even last year, the Lions allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs. Then they were lit up by WRs Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele down the field in Week 2, and that’s exactly where Moore is going to operate in this offense. It’s as tasty of a matchup as he’ll get all year.
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9. Chris Olave (at BAL) – 74.5 proj. receiving yards
Olave has 10 games with Tyler Shough now. He’s the WR4 (15.9 half-PPR points) on WR7 usage in them, averaging 91 yards on 139 air yards and 9.8 targets per game. This is an elite role at least until Jordyn Tyson comes back in the mix. The Saints were first in neutral pace in 2025 and followed that up in Week 1, when the offense was lighting up the Lions in the second half and overtime. They ran 86 plays!!!
This matchup is the polar opposite. The Ravens defense was flying around the field in Week 1 with star players littered in the secondary. He’ll likely see a ton of CB1 Nate Wiggins, who has the speed to match with Olave down the field. They also have new HC Jesse Minter to use superstar S Kyle Hamilton as they see fit. They allowed -0.44 EPA per dropback last week. Because of this potentially great defense, the Saints only project for 19.0 points (27th). Olave also popped up with a hamstring injury on Thursday; something to monitor.
10. Garrett Wilson (vs. GB) – 64.5 proj. receiving yards
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The Jets took care of business against the Titans in Week 1. Wilson and Geno Smith looked great on film, and the pass game flowed through the former still. He had another 30% target share, which will lead to even bigger games when they’re playing in negative game script.
The Packers are a great matchup for Wilson. Green Bay’s offense can’t run the ball, and their pass-game looks extremely explosive. They could put up points in a hurry or punt the ball quickly, leading to more plays for the Jets, who are 3.5-point dogs at home. Green Bay’s defense is also a weakness. They’re sixth-worst in EPA per dropback and second-worst in sack rate since Week 15 of last year when Micah Parsons went down.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
11. Mike Evans (vs. MIA) – 48.5 proj. receiving yards
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Unc still got it. Evans looked great in a slightly altered role in his Week 1 debut against a loaded secondary. The Niners got him on a few quick out routes, then gave him a signature end-zone fade for a TD. It was a clean 21% target share, and those targets will be very efficient in this offense. Beyond that, De’Zhaun Stribling’s snaps will be replaced by low-volume clear-out WR Demarcus Robinson and George Kittle didn’t look like himself on tape. It’s a great spot all around.
This week’s matchup does not get any easier. The 49ers are second in projected points (29.0) against the Dolphins, who have the youngest defense in the NFL by far. They’re trotting out a rookie CB, and Chris Johnson was lit up for double-digit targets in the opener. Expect Evans to see bust CB1 JuJu Brents plenty. BBQ chicken.
12. Malik Nabers (at LAR) – 65.5 proj. receiving yards
Nabers ran a route on 71% of dropbacks in his return from multiple knee surgeries, leading to an elite 31% target share, 103 air yards and WR14 expected half-PPR points. On tape, Nabers looked explosive in a straight line and he still was able to make a few impressive cuts after the catch. He did slip three times at the top of his route while breaking left and back towards the ball. We can live with that as he ramps back up over the next month or so. In the meantime, Nabers’ role and quality of play are absolutely worth starting, even if he’s not quite in the top 12 yet. He’s on the path of getting there by the time fantasy matchups have real dollars at stake.
(Charts by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The Rams have stars in the secondary, but they at least won’t have Myles Garrett and potentially won’t have Aaron Donald yet. If the Rams offense returns to form back in the United States, then Nabers should have plenty of targets in a more favorable game script. The Giants are 7-point dogs with a 20.75-point team total.
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13. DeVonta Smith (at TEN) – 60.5 proj. receiving yards
The Eagles had some issues on the ground, but they hit chunk plays in the air and did enough schematically against a unique Commanders defense to give us confidence with Smith and Jalen Hurts. Smith is going to be boom-bust, as they seemed to tailor their manufactured touches to first-round slot Makai Lemon instead. Smith still had a 27% target share with a 13.2 average depth of target, a nice sweet spot in my opinion. His -12.2% completion percentage over expectation will normalize, and he should be a good WR2 in fantasy on average.
The matchup is a nice one here. The Titans couldn’t stop the Jets in Week 1, and the Eagles are projected for 23.25 points (14th) despite being on the road. The Titans’ top outside CBs are pretty volatile, Alontae Taylor (who should be a slot CB imo) and Cor’Dale Flott and Smith is one of the best cross-over route runners in the league.
14. Christian Watson (at NYJ) – 60.5 proj. receiving yards
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It’s a party for the Packers WRs.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
Green Bay’s OL can’t run block, and their RBs can’t hit the hole either. They opted to be eighth in neutral pass rate (60%) and second in neutral pace instead. They’ve been bottom in each category since Josh Jacobs arrived years ago. It’s a big deal. Beyond that, the Packers didn’t rotate their WRs much. Watson and Matthew Golden are near full-time players, soaking up 20% and 30% of the targets, respectively. Watson hit the gas on an in-cut for an 81-yarder, then had a manufactured target at the goal line for a second score. It all led to WR12 expected half-PPR points in Week 1. He’s a model breaker on top of that.
The matchup is a very clean one. The Jets offense looked competent, and their defense is missing star players in the secondary. Watson will face off with boom-bust CBs AZ Thomas and Brandon Stephens on the perimeter. It doesn’t look like the Jets will have S Minkah Fitzpatrick or EDGE Joseph Ossai either. The Packers are projected for 24.0 points (13th).
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15. Emeka Egbuka (vs. CLE) – 54.5 proj. receiving yards
Egbuka was fine in Week 1 (WR33 on WR36 usage), but the film was quite promising. He looked healthy on his toe and was very clearly more athletic than Chris Godwin Jr., who was used as a physical power slot underneath. Egbuka ran more digs and had all of the fun motion plays. They leaked him often, had him run through the B gap a couple of times and was targeted deep downfield on a motion-wheel. It was very Rams-coded (bullish). When Baker Mayfield feels less skittish, then Egbuka should have big games ahead.
The Browns had issues with the Jaguars in Week 1, only pressuring that mediocre OL on four dropbacks. They allowed the third-most fantasy points to WRs. Parker Washington, who plays the same role in the same coaching tree, had multiple explosives, including a corner route TD from the slot. Ebguka will see some CB1 Denzel Ward, but it will not be the entire time at all. Tampa Bay has a 25.0-point team total (ninth). It’s a good matchup.
16. Parker Washington (at DEN) – 55.5 proj. receiving yards
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Since Week 7 of last year, Washington is the WR14 on WR12 usage on a per-game basis. That’s a 23% target share on a quality offense.
Washington ran a route on 72% of dropbacks, which was a bit lower than expected. He played almost all of the 3-WR sets, splitting time between Z and the slot. He rotated in the non 3-WR set snaps, however, losing some playing time to rookie WR Josh Cameron and others. That said, he’s clearly the top target whenever he’s out there. Washington led with an elite 29% target share and 102 air yards. He roasted a SCB for a man-coverage corner route TD and had multiple crossing-route wins. He added a one-handed grab on a quick out for good measure. It all led to a WR10 start on WR29 usage in a blowout win.
The matchup is far more difficult this week. The Jaguars are on the road, projecting for 21.5 points (20th) in Denver. Since 2025, the Broncos have been the best defense against fantasy WRs when adjusting for schedule. He won’t see much of CB1 Patrick Surtain at least, but CB2 Riley Moss and SCB Ja’Quan McMillan are above average in their roles … but as I pull up the Broncos’ box scores, I find that the receiver who had the best fantasy game against them was Mr. Washington himself (6-145-1 on 10 targets in Week 16).
17. Tetairoa McMillan (at ATL) – 57.5 proj. receiving yards
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McMillan was just fine in Week 1. He ran a couple of great routes and remains an awesome big-body target in clutch situations. His WR22 expected points were nothing to sneeze at, but McMillan did look a step slower on some of the crossing and go routes versus last year, if we want to over analyze it.
He should be more physical at the catch point and in after-catch situations, but the real Week 1 takeaway is the gap between McMillan and Coker was too large in drafts. That mostly means Coker is flying up rest-of-season rankings than McMillan is tanking. However, McMillan is the WR28 on WR35 usage in eight games since Jalen Coker was a full-time player in Week 12 of last year. Their target shares are Coker, 23% and McMillan, 22%.
McMillan and Coker both play inside and out, but McMillan will generally get the top corner when all else is equal. The Falcons have a good one in A.J. Terrell here. That didn’t stop McMillan from a monster 8-130-2 outing the last time they faced off. That was the most fantasy points Atlanta allowed all year.
18. Jaylen Waddle (vs. JAX) – 52.5 proj. receiving yards
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Waddle flopped in Week 1. He had an 11% target share and 13 air yards. Come on!!! The potential long-term thorn here could be second-year WR Pat Bryant’s 22% target share. If there are three real weapons at WR, it’s always harder to make the math work.
It’s shocking to see Waddle’s floor be so low, but the good news, if any, is the tape showed a lot more schemed-up opportunities for him than what the box score showed. Bo Nix turned down a swing pass, corner route and pick-wheel in the first half alone. They gave him a route out of the backfield, a third-and-4 choice route, a screen, plenty of switch releases, work out of the slot (59% of snaps), a third-and-7 slant (dropped) and more. The game plan seemed to prioritize Waddle a lot more than Nix allowed. It was more of a QB and C/RB/TE blocking thing than a scheme thing to me. The Broncos were first in neutral pass rate (72%), so the uptick in routes for Waddle should be a real thing.
19. Ladd McConkey (vs. LV)
We’ll learn more about his availability (ribs) later in the week.
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20. Terry McLaurin (at DAL) – 53.5 proj. receiving yards
McLaurin was predictably shut down by Eagles DC Vic Fangio and elite CB1 Quinyon Mitchell. Even with that dud, McLaurin is the WR14 on WR29 usage in games with Jayden Daniels. The top end of that outcome is very unlikely to repeat after running pure on touchdowns in 2024, but let’s not panic here.
Especially not this week. The Cowboys struggled with communication in Week 1 against the Giants, to the point Jaxson Dart had a +0.71 EPA per dropback and Week 1 high 71% success rate. Since 2024, the Cowboys are allowing the most fantasy points to WRs when adjusting for schedule. McLaurin has had two big games within that:
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
21. Tee Higgins (at HOU) – 55.5 proj. receiving yards
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Higgins had a wild 19.5 average depth of target on his six targets in Week 1, leading to an elite 117 air yards. Some of it was performative under-center heaves from Joe Burrow, but those looks are very valuable and I’d guess the Bengals keep up their under-center play-action looks as a third pitch in the offense. Burrow had a 14.3 aDOT under center versus a 6.3 aDOT in the gun on a half second quicker time to throw. Higgins is the WR16 on WR24 usage since 2025 with Burrow in the lineup, and he was even better than that in 2024. Nothing has really changed.
Unfortunately, this is a difficult spot. Burrow seems a bit banged up, and the Texans were the fifth-best defense against fantasy WRs last year with a secondary that all could make the Pro Bowl. Cincy’s team total is lower than usual at 22.0 points (19th).
22. Davante Adams (vs. NYG) – 44.5 proj. receiving yards
23. Matthew Golden (at NYJ) – 49.5 proj. receiving yards
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
24. Jameson Williams (at BUF) – 57.5 proj. receiving yards
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Williams will have a very boom-bust role with Sam LaPorta healthy. In nine games since 2025 with LaPorta available, Williams is the WR43 on WR54 usage in half PPR, even though he’s averaged 10.0 YPT in that sample. Williams’ average depth of target climbs to 14.8 yards downfield as the primary clear out player. That was his role in Week 1, when he came up close to empty on 127 air yards (!!!) and 13.9 expected half-PPR points (WR7). There will be WR50 weeks. There will be WR5 weeks. They’ll just be hard to predict before the week.
Williams’ individual matchup is solid. The Lions are projected for 25.0 points and are set up in more pass-heavy script as road dogs. The Lions are missing 3-of-5 OL starters and multiple DBs, so don’t be surprised if Goff drops back a ton. Jamo will face shadow CB1 Christian Benford on the perimeter and he had an up-and-down game against Nico Collins in Week 1, traveling with him on each side of the field.
25. DK Metcalf (at NE) – 50.5 proj. receiving yards
Metcalf had excellent usage in Week 1. He was the WR6 in expected half-PPR points (15.0) on 204 air yards and a 27% target share. It helped that the Steelers were fifth in neutral pass rate (66%) in new HC Mike McCarthy’s debut, far higher than last year’s 54%. Was it effective? Nope. He had a drop over the middle, an OPI on an out route and a few near completions way down the field. We’ll see if the Steelers felt like last week’s game plan holds as September rolls on, but this was a far more downfield role (20.4 average depth of target) for their WR1.
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The matchup is a difficult one. The Patriots have elite CB1 Christian Gonzalez, who has the size and speed to match up with Metcalf. New England allowed just 201 YPG through the air in 2025. He had 35 yards in this matchup in Week 3 of last year, too. Pittsburgh has things to work on, and the betting markets agree, as they have the 29th team total of Week 2 (18.0).
26. Drake London (vs. CAR) – 56.5 proj. receiving yards
Don’t read too much into the Falcons’ Week 1 brutal start, unless Cooper Rush continues to start. We’ll learn more later in the week. This assumes it’s Rush again.
The bigger thing to note from Week 1 was the minor changes in the offense. London’s slot rate fell from 34% last year to 16% in Week 1. He’s an excellent big slot, so losing some of that work will hurt the margins.
27. Rome Odunze (vs. MIN) – 39.5 proj. receiving yards
28. Jalen Coker (at ATL) – 50.5 proj. receiving yards
Jalen Coker started and played 82% snaps in Week 12 of last year. In eight games since then, he’s the WR11 on WR27 usage in half PPR. He’s running really hot, but the usage is real and he is undeniably a good player. Without much depth in Carolina, he might be a fantasy WR3.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
29. Luther Burden (vs. MIN) – 51.5 proj. receiving yards
30. Rashee Rice (vs. IND) – 53.5 proj. receiving yards
Rice scored a 13-yard touchdown, bouncing off two defenders on a 1-on-1 “screen.” He only had six receiving yards on 26 non-screen routes, however. The Chiefs offense also flipped, as expected. They had a 58% neutral pass rate over the past three seasons, then in Week 1 with Kenneth Walker dominating, the Chiefs had a 48% neutral pass rate. That’ll hurt Rice’ PPR-scam ability. The good news is the pass game remained quite dink-and-dunk, but it’s still unclear just how healthy Rice is after a second knee surgery this offseason. He looked just fine to me. His 3.3 expected half-PPR points (WR88) and 8% target share has to be nerve-racking for Round 3 drafters, though (not me).
The Colts were gashed in Week 1, but they did play the most man coverage (56%) and that’s exactly what gives Rice issues. 2025 third-round SCB Justin Walley made his debut after injury last week, and it didn’t go well. The individual matchup is decent, but Rice will have to buck his trend of being a total non-factor against man. The Chiefs are projected for 26.5 points (sixth) at home.
31. Deebo Samuel (vs. MIA) – 35.5 proj. receiving yards
32. Quentin Johnston (vs. LV)
33. Stefon Diggs (at DAL) – 46.5 proj. receiving yards
34. Alec Pierce (at KC) – 45.5 proj. receiving yards
35. Chris Godwin Jr. (vs. CLE) – 47.5 proj. receiving yards
Godwin is out of his prime on tape. He did absolutely yeet a couple of Bengals tacklers after the catch with grown-man strength, but his speed is officially lackluster, as it was last season. He was targeted four times, three of which were behind the line of scrimmage. Emeka Egbuka was given more at-snap motion responsibilities as the primary intermediate target on the team. Godwin had the negative game script last week, yet mustered just a 15% target share. He’s a WR4 bench stash while everyone is healthy. He could be a mid-volume, red-zone threat to wind down his career.
36. Jayden Reed (at NYJ) – 37.5 proj. receiving yards
