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Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks’ RB Blueprint for Week 3

September 23, 2026

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The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be this RB column, a WR column on Thursdays and a combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.

It’s impossible to get every ranking thoroughly early in the week, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available.

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (vs. NYJ) – 124.5 proj. total yards

The Lions’ OL is beat up with their starting C on IR and their starting LG and RT missing Week 2. That’s about the only negative to say here. Gibbs managed 20.3 half PPR points on exactly 20.3 expected half PPR points in Week 2. That’ll do. Gibbs has a monster game incoming given the matchup. The Lions project for 27.5 points (fifth) this week. Since Week 10 of last year, the Jets have been allowing the most fantasy points per game to RBs, adjusting for schedule.

2. Kenneth Walker (at MIA) – 112.5 proj. total yards

There is nothing negative to say. Walker is the RB1 on RB1 overall usage, while breaking the most tackles. He set a career high in targets (10) last week, and the Chiefs’ entire offense looks competent right now. Meanwhile, the ACC Dolphins have the youngest defense in the NFL. It’s not a surprise that the Chiefs are first in projected points at 29.0.

3. Bijan Robinson (at GB) – 123.5 proj. total yards

Let’s just throw out the first two games with Cooper Rush. In 12 games with Michael Penix Jr., Robinson is the RB1 overall (21.6 half PPR points) on RB2 overall usage (18.7 expected points). Even though Penix is a gunslinger type, Bijan doesn’t have a drop in target share either. We should be back to normalcy. That doesn’t mean the Falcons will be good on offense (29th in projected points this week), but they won’t be a disgrace like they were to open the year. The Packers defense looks much improved this year with new DC Jonathan Gannon, getting breakouts from DE Lukas Van Ness and S Javon Bullard.

4. Christian McCaffrey (vs. ARI) – 98.5 proj. total yards

There shouldn’t be too much panic on McCaffrey’s status as a Round 1 guy. He’s definitely not in the legendary-RB phase of his career, but the 49ers offense looks like ’03 Barry Bonds and McCaffrey is getting the high-value touches. He scored two goal-line touchdowns and had another goal-line attempt on a separate drive. Kaelon Black wasn’t on the field in any of these situations. McCaffrey also has a 23% target share (RB3) and 4.5 receptions per game (RB5).

Is it the worst thing if Black is complementing between the 20s on pure runs? Those historically give us 0.4 fantasy points per touch. We’re here for the targets (~one fantasy point) and goal-line carries (~four fantasy points). CMC’s the RB9 on RB9 usage so far, and it’s been in the most sustainable way possible.

5. Derrick Henry (at DAL) – 106.5 proj. total yards

Henry is the RB3 on RB7 usage so far, averaging 20 carries for 106 rushing yards. Who could have seen this coming? The offense will be more potent with Zay Flowers (hamstring) likely, but not assuredly, back, and the matchup is a very good one with the Cowboys missing their top LB and a S. They also haven’t gelled on tape either. The thing to watch would be LT Ronnie Stanley (toe) actually suiting up. Without him, the Ravens OL is in tough shape.

As for the four targets last week, I’d largely ignore that as a trend. There was a screen for Henry early on, but the other targets were of the check-down variety. He still only ran a route on 14-of-40 dropbacks. It’s the same role. That is totally, totally fine.

6. James Cook III (vs. LAC) – 97.5 proj. total yards

Cook may not lead the NFL in carries and rushing yards per game like he did last year because the Bills are now slightly more pass-heavy (51% neutral pass), but it’s really not going to matter all that much. The Bills are second in projected points (28.75) against a meme-worthy Chargers team that is struggling defensively with a new, inexperienced DC. The real thing to take away from early results is that the suggestion of Cook being more involved as a receiver is likely fake news. He has the same targets per route as usual.

7. Jonathan Taylor (vs. HOU) – 97.5 proj. total yards

The Colts will miss Alec Pierce (heel/ankle), as he’s the one who actually opens up lanes over the middle of the field, but I have a lot of faith in HC Shane Steichen’s offensive plan. Taylor has been elite with Daniel Jones, and that has carried over into 2026 (RB4 on RB4 usage) despite the Colts being ninth in scoring. Jones isn’t 100% but he’s good enough at 85% to keep this offense afloat.

Indianapolis projects for 19.75 points (25th) because of the matchup with the Texans. Houston only allowed 17.0 half-PPR points to opposing RB rooms last year (27th) and allowed just 93 YPG (31st). Taylor had 21-86-0 rushing with 3-36-0 receiving in Week 13 against Houston with a limping DJ at QB. He was also shut down with a backup QB in Week 18, but we should throw that game out.

8. Ashton Jeanty (at NO) – 90.5 proj. total yards

Jeanty was not nearly as effective against the Chargers as he was against the ACC Dolphins. Jeanty was stuffed on four straight carries inside the five-yard line in the first quarter, then had three drops as a receiver throughout the game. Over two weeks, his 0.11 missed tackles per carry and 0.4 yards before contact are amongst the worst in the league. The good news is the workload is actually just elite. He’s the RB3 in usage (23.6 expected half PPR points) while playing 75% of the snaps. Unfortunately, late in the game, Jeanty’s right ankle was being looked at by trainers on the sideline, the same one that was rolled up on in training camp.

The matchup is a neutral one. The Raiders project for 20.75 points (21st), and the Saints defense has been alright against two great offenses (Lions and Ravens) with EDGE Chase Young playing great ball. The Saints were 20th against fantasy RBs last year, then Gibbs and Henry averaged 4.9 YPC in Weeks 1-2.

9. Chase Brown (at PIT) – 89.5 proj. total yards

Brown is an excellent buy low. He’s the RB5 in expected half PPR points (17.8) on RB8 carries (18.0 per game) and RB8 receptions (4.0 per game). He’s somehow just the RB19 in actual points after a very difficult matchup last week. The Bengals are running the ball under center with Brown, which likely will create more explosive opportunities throughout the season.

The matchup isn’t great again, though. The Bengals project for 23.0 points (12th), and the Steelers have been the third-best fantasy defense since Week 11 last year, adjusting for schedule. They have a great DL. That said, Brown did catch them for a huge game (18.7 PPR) in Week 11 last year with Joe Flacco and then scored 19.0 PPR points in his last game against the Steelers with Joe Burrow available.

10. Breece Hall (at DET) – 82.5 proj. total yards

Hall has lost a couple of inside-the-10-yard-line TDs to Braelon Allen, but Hall will get some of those eventually and is getting a ton otherwise. He’s the RB11 on RB13 usage, averaging 19.0 carries and 3.5 receptions per game. That’s great stuff when Hall also looks healthy on tape. He had a real highlight play in the screen game last week, for example.

The Lions matchup is an underrated good one. I’m expecting negative game script, as the Jets defense isn’t ready for them, but Hall can catch five+ passes in those scripts, just like he had last week. The Lions also just gave up 203 rushing yards last week to the Bills. It’s so refreshing to see the Jets project for 20.5 points on the road against a Super Bowl-caliber team. They are officially competent right now — that’s never been true for the entirety of Hall’s career.

11. Omarion Hampton (at BUF) – 75.5 proj. total yards

Hampton is a tough tackle when running up the middle and has the speed for explosives when given open space. The Chargers are loading him up with 17.5 carries per game (RB9) to start the season, too, but unfortunately, those are the lone positives.

Hampton’s two fumbles are inexcusable, and his cutback vision and lateral ability have been clear weaknesses in this outside zone and perimeter-based system. There will be times when he’ll turn the corner, but the De’Von Achane types are just so much better at adjusting their point of attack. Hampton is also far less involved as a receiver (0 and 2 receptions, respectively) than the other OC Mike McDaniel backs. I’m not sure the blocking up front will get better either. The interior OL is not changing, and the TE room is significantly worse at blocking moving forward with David Njoku and Charlie Kolar hitting IR. Hampton can’t totally bust, but he does have “silent killer” vibes (RB20 on RB21 usage), as the Chargers’ schedule significantly tightens up for the next two months.

12. De’Von Achane (vs. KC) – 90.5 proj. total yards

The Dolphins will be a pretty rough watch all year. They’re too young, too inexperienced to sustain long drives. That will prevent Achane from being a top-8 fantasy RB most likely. The good news, once again if any, is the Dolphins are absolutely feeding him the rock and they’re doing it in the exact same ways the 2025 Dolphins were doing. The run game is creative and playing to his strengths, though they haven’t executed the timing perfectly up front with their TEs/FBs in particular. He’s handled the goal-line carry in Week 2, too. His carries per game (15.5) are up from 2024-25 (13.4).

Achane’s targets per game (5.5) are basically the same as his 2024-25 stretch (5.2), too. He’s the RB12 in receptions per game (3.5) right now because a few of them have gone incomplete, but the Dolphins and Malik Willis aren’t structurally changing his receiving role. He’s getting the same number of targets as normal, with other first-read targets and garbage-time check downs sprinkled in. I don’t see a reason to blame the coaching staff so far.

Long story short, Achane is the RB8 in expected half PPR points. The efficiency has been brutal, but Achane has been a model breaker for years, if you’re bold enough to buy low as a fringe RB1. We can’t expect him to sniff his career 5.5 YPC or 6.0 YPT, but I predict it won’t stay at 3.5 and 4.5 either.

13. Chuba Hubbard (at CLE) – 80.5 proj. total yards

Look at Chuba Hubbard right now versus all other RBs who had an ADP of 60+ on Yahoo.

Jonathon Brooks (groin) had a setback in Week 2 and is officially week-to-week, but he wasn’t much of a factor even before that. It’d be a very big surprise if Hubbard lost his clear-cut starting job in 2026 at this point, barring injury. He’s the RB8 on RB14 usage so far, and he did something very similar in 2024, too. Hubbard played 77% of snaps in the first year with the current coaching staff, leading to an RB12 on RB7 usage on RB4 overall rush yards over expected (+24%).

He’s at +14% in that same metric right now, and Hubbard is the RB1 in success rate (min. 10 RB carries per game). The Panthers have invested a lot in their OL over recent offseasons, and it’s paying off now. Bryce Young is also playing poised in a more aggressive offense and suddenly has two “WR1” talents. It’s an underrated environment.

14. Saquon Barkley (at CHI) – 89.5 proj. total yards

We’ll learn more about his availability (stinger) later in the week. Without him, Tank Bigsby was the early-down runner while Will Shipley played a bulk of the pass downs. On tape, the Eagles’ interior OL and TE blocking are well below average. Philly is 31st in RB success rate through two weeks. This is unfortunately closer to the 2025 splits than the 2024 splits. Barkley is the RB17 on RB6 usage from 2025 Week 1 to 2026 Week 1, throwing out last week’s part-time outing.

The good news is the Bears defense is one to target, especially with a third-string QB starting against a Vic Fangio defense. Chicago allowed the sixth-most rush yards in 2025, then has allowed 23.7 half-PPR points to Chuba Hubbard in Week 1 and 103 rushing yards to Aaron Jones Sr. last Sunday. The Eagles project for 23.0 points (13th) as road favorites on Monday Night Football.

15. Javonte Williams (vs. BAL) – 79.5 proj. total yards

Williams is the RB11 on RB5 expected half PPR points per game since 2025. He’s the RB14 on RB10 usage this year in the same exact role with absolutely nobody behind him on the depth chart.

Since Week 10 of last year, the Ravens have allowed 66 rushing yards per game to RBs, the second fewest. This is definitely not a great matchup for Williams, yet the Cowboys project for 24.5 points (sixth) and we’re here for the check-downs and goal-line carries more than anything else. He’s a TD-or-bust fringe RB1/2.

16. Aaron Jones Sr. (at TB) – 89.5 proj. total yards

Jones’ first game without Jordan Mason (IR, finger) was a success. He scored 10.5 half PPR points on 10.5 expected half PPR points (RB27), despite going catchless in positive game script in rainy conditions. Jones played 90% of the snaps heading into halftime and would’ve hovered in that range if not for a momentary knee scare. He’s good (for now). Jones hasn’t looked “washed” on tape early in the year, and he’s more likely to hit explosives with Kyler Murray standing next to him. He’s also far more likely to catch passes when it’s not rainy with a lead. In general, bellcow backs like this are must-starts in fantasy. Keep in mind that he’s the RB20 on RB13 usage without Mason available since 2024.

Since Week 10 of last year, the Buccaneers have allowed the most receiving yards per game to RBs (48) and their off-ball LB tape has been brutal this season in particular. There will be issues running the ball up the gut against DT Vita Vea, but the Bucs aren’t as scary as they’ve been over the past five years with HC Todd Bowles. The Vikings are projected for 22.0 points (16th) on the road.

17. Kyren Williams (at DEN) – 71.5 proj. total yards

Williams is the RB9 on RB14 usage since Week 10 of last year when Blake Corum was mixing in for about 33% of the snaps. The thing to remember is the Rams averaged 30.4 points per game during that stretch, so they have to be elite, elite for Williams to be a top-10 RB. It’s a drive-for-drive rotation in 2026, with Williams more likely to play in chase mode and more likely to get designed receptions.

The Rams project for 24.0 points in Denver this week, so a tier below the split from the paragraph above. The Broncos lost DT John Franklin-Myers this offseason and were absolutely lit up by Kenneth Walker in Week 1 before looking a bit better against the Jaguars’ RBs last week. Since 2025, Denver is second-best against fantasy RBs, allowing just 99 rushing YPG to RBs, so I think the Walker game will end up being the outlier. This is a difficult matchup.

18. David Montgomery (at IND) – 59.5 proj. total yards

The Texans are rotating their RBs by drive. David Montgomery starts, but Woody Marks will play many snaps in a row. They view this tandem as capable in all situations, rather than rotating them by situation. If Marks’ drive ends near the end zone, I’m not sold that Montgomery gets the goal-line carry. Last week, Montgomery had one carry in the second half while in negative script, too.

Beyond that, the reality is the Texans’ ground game is broken. Both RBs are bottom-three in yards per carry among RBs with 10+ carries per game. It’s not even their fault either. The OL is just not talented enough, and the QB being a statue doesn’t help the numbers either. I don’t know how this changes.