Bill Connelly
Texas, Penn State and Clemson were among the preseason national title favorites but fell well short. Ohio State spent most of the season at No. 1 in the polls but lost to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game and quickly bowed out to Miami in the College Football Playoff. And now we know our national title game matchup.
The Hoosiers and Hurricanes will play in the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T on Jan. 19 in Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium; the former are looking to complete an otherworldly 16-game run to win their first crown, while the latter have rekindled old magic and will play for their first title since 2001.
On Thursday night in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl, Miami watched multiple leads disappear, dropped several potential interceptions, committed penalties and still gutted its way into the CFP championship game with a 31-27 win over Ole Miss. Carson Beck’s 3-yard touchdown run made the difference, but it was a wonderful back-and-forth game until the end.
On Friday evening in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Indiana didn’t waste any time. The Hoosiers led 7-0 after one play against Oregon and 35-7 at halftime, eventually cruising 56-22. They have been the best team in the country, and they’ve played their two best games in the past two weeks.
Here are the key plays and takeaways from both semifinals.
Jump to a game: Oregon-Indiana | Ole Miss-Miami
What just happened?
The best team in the country played like it yet again. In front of a lopsided Mercedes-Benz Stadium crowd in Atlanta, Indiana scored on a D’Angelo Ponds pick-six on the first play of the game, and though Oregon responded with a lengthy touchdown drive, the Hoosiers ratcheted up the pressure and cruised.
Two more Oregon turnovers led to touchdowns, Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza completed 17 of 20 passes, five for scores, and Indiana led 42-7 early in the second half. Oregon’s offense made some plays in the third quarter but couldn’t do much damage on the scoreboard, and a blocked punt by sophomore Daniel Ndukwe — who also had two sacks and a forced fumble in a career game — set up Mendoza’s fifth TD pass of the evening to make it 49-15. And the Hoosiers kept rolling from there.
In their past two games, Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have beaten Alabama and Oregon by a combined 69 points. Obviously, upsets can happen, but they will be comfortable favorites to win the national title over Miami and become the second major college football team to finish a season 16-0, joining Yale in 1894. If you haven’t wrapped your head around the Hoosiers’ being this damn good, you’re running out of time.
Impact plays
This was an early-round knockout.
0:51
Indiana starts off Peach Bowl with an electric pick-six
Oregon QB Dante Moore goes to pass, but is picked off by Indiana’s D’Angelo Ponds, who takes it to the crib for a touchdown.
With Ponds’ first-play pick-six, Indiana’s win probability immediately jumped to 76%, and while Oregon would soon tie the score, the Hoosiers took the lead again, then took advantage of a gifted fumble. The ensuing TD pushed their win probability past 90%.
0:59
Indiana scores TD after bizarre Dante Moore fumble
After Indiana recovers a fumble by Dante Moore, Kaelon Black punches it in for the Hoosiers a few plays later.
Signs were quickly pointing to an easy Hoosiers win, and Charlie Becker’s 36-yard touchdown catch over Brandon Finney Jr. late in the second quarter basically ended the game.
0:59
Charlie Becker makes sensational leaping grab for an Indiana TD
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza lobs it to Charlie Becker in the end zone, who makes an incredible leaping catch for the score.
One stat I focused on in this game was Oregon’s success rate. The Ducks were ruthlessly efficient in 2025, posting a 49.1% success rate on the season, ninth in the country. But they were at just 34.4% in the first game against the Hoosiers. It had to improve for them to have a chance, and it was at 46.7% when they tied the score at 7-7. But it was just 25.0% for the rest of the first half. That, plus the turnover disasters, finished this off by halftime.
See you next fall, Ducks
Dan Lanning has built an outstanding program in Eugene. The Ducks are 38-5 over the past three seasons, losing only to national finalists (Washington twice in 2023, Oregon in 2024, Indiana twice in 2025). They have a top-five roster in terms of recruiting rankings, and this should be the third straight year in which they finish with a top-five SP+ ranking. Dynamite stuff. But the Ducks have face-planted to end the past two seasons. After falling behind 34-0 in less than two quarters against Ohio State in last year’s quarterfinals, they generated basically the same win probability chart Friday night.
Lanning will be upset by how easy the Ducks made it for Indiana in the first half. The defensive front six played well: Linebacker Bryce Boettcher was a sideline-to-sideline disruptor as usual, freshman defensive end Nasir Wyatt had a great sack-and-strip of Mendoza in the first half, and after gaining 41 yards on their first six carries, IU’s Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black gained only 52 in their next 22. But because of the pick-six and a couple of Dante Moore fumbles deep in Ducks territory — including one that was accidentally forced by running back Dierre Hill Jr. — Indiana scored its first 42 points while gaining just 255 yards of offense.
Still, you can make a good case that Oregon arrived to the semifinals ahead of schedule. The Ducks had a newly reconstructed offensive line and a new starting quarterback (albeit a blue-chipper and potential future top NFL draft pick in Moore), and they relied on freshmen such as running backs Jordon Davison (injured for Friday’s game) and Hill, receivers Dakorien Moore and Jeremiah McClellan, corner Brandon Finney Jr. and safety Aaron Flowers.
We’ll have to wait and see if Dante Moore returns to Eugene, and Lanning will move forward with two new coordinators after losing Will Stein (Kentucky) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal) to head coaching gigs. But Oregon will again have one of the most loaded rosters in the country in 2026. Basically, the only thing Lanning hasn’t engineered so far is an appearance in the title game. It doesn’t feel like he’ll have to wait much longer.
(You can forgive him, however, if he never wants to play in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium again. Including a 2022 loss to Georgia, his Ducks have lost twice there by a combined 105-25.)
What’s next
Indiana will head to Miami to play for its first football national title. The Hoosiers open as a 7.5-point favorite, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, and if recent attendance is any indication, the crowd will be 50-50 at worst, even though the game will be played in Miami’s home stadium. (In a way, it’s also Mendoza’s home stadium. He graduated from Miami Columbus High School.)
The Hurricanes obviously have plenty to offer: fantastic line play, strong skill corps talent and a team-of-destiny feel after a magical run of playoff wins. But Indiana is the best team in the country and just needs to prove it one more time.
What just happened?
Miami paid millions of dollars to bring Carson Beck to town, and in the drive that would define his season with the Hurricanes, he led them 75 yards for the winning touchdown to send them to the national title game. Money well spent, huh?
Beck’s 3-yard touchdown scramble with 18 seconds left capped a madcap fourth quarter that featured four lead changes and even saw Ole Miss drive close enough for a shot at the end zone on the final play.
The Hurricanes hogged the ball for much of the game — time of possession after three quarters: Miami 33:50, Ole Miss 11:10 — but dropped four potential interceptions, missed a field goal and threw a pick deep in Rebels territory. Given extra life, Ole Miss took two fourth-quarter leads, first on Lucas Carneiro’s fourth field goal of the evening, then on a 24-yard touchdown pass from Trinidad Chambliss to Dae’Quan Wright. But with four third-down conversions, Beck guided the Canes down the field and won the game.
Impact plays
Miami games don’t tend to feature many big plays, for or against, but chunk plays caused some pretty big swings in this one.
Kewan Lacy’s 73-yard burst early in the second quarter — Ole Miss’ first good offensive play of the game — gave the Rebels a sudden 7-3 lead. Lacy tweaked a hamstring and missed most of the next two quarters before returning, but the touchdown bought Ole Miss some time.
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Ole Miss’ Kewan Lacy bursts free for a 73-yard TD
Kewan Lacy goes untouched for a 73-yard touchdown to give Ole Miss a 7-3 lead.
Miami leveraged the game back in its favor. Keelan Marion scored on a bomb against busted coverage late in the first half to make it 17-10. After generating just 69 receiving yards in his first two playoff games, he was the semifinal star of the Miami receiving corps, catching seven passes for 114 yards.
0:47
Miami’s Carson Beck connects with Keelan Marion for a 52-yard go-ahead TD
Carson Beck hits a wide-open Keelan Marion, who walks into the end zone to put the Hurricanes back on top.
Three Carneiro field goals — including a 58-yarder at the end of the first half and a doinked-in 52-yarder in the third quarter — would push the Rebels back in front, but they wasted a golden opportunity after a pair of Miami personal fouls (the Canes had 10 penalties on the evening) set up a first-and-goal. Ole Miss gained only 4 yards in three plays and settled for a 19-17 lead, which disappeared within two minutes on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard burst off a screen pass.
0:58
Miami regains lead on Malachi Toney’s 36-yard TD
Malachi Toney evades tackles on his way to a 36-yard touchdown to give Miami the lead back.
Ole Miss created the third lead change of the fourth quarter with Wright’s touchdown but left plenty time on the clock for Beck and the Canes. They used most of it, took the lead and broke up a Hail Mary.
0:57
Miami wins after Ole Miss’ Hail Mary attempt falls incomplete
Trinidad Chambliss airs one out to the end zone, but it’s too far and falls incomplete.
See you next fall, Rebels
The most thrilling and headline-grabbing Ole Miss season in recent history ended with two straight down-to-the-wire thrillers. The Rebels played brilliant ball down the stretch, winning their last four regular-season games by an average of 38-14 to clinch a playoff bid despite the waves of headlines regarding Lane Kiffin’s potential move to LSU. And despite Kiffin leaving town and trying to take assistants with him before Ole Miss’ season had ended, the Rebels thumped Tulane in the playoff, came back from nine points down at halftime to beat Georgia in the quarterfinals, then came back again to nearly beat Miami.
So many of the Rebels’ stars made big plays Thursday night. Chambliss threw for 277 yards and a touchdown and used a great 19-yard scramble to set up Ole Miss’ last go-ahead touchdown. Lacy rushed for 103 yards on just 11 carries, reentering the game after his hamstring injury and grinding out tough yards. Leading receivers De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III combined for nine catches and 117 yards, while junior Cayden Lee came up big (five for 67) and Wright had three huge catches, all in the second half. Carneiro’s huge leg shined again. On defense, Suntarine Perkins had 1.5 sacks, and linebacker TJ Dottery and safety Wydett Williams Jr. made big plays early during Miami’s last drive, which could have been remembered differently with a different ending.
Pete Golding inherited a seemingly impossible situation with Kiffin leaving, but Ole Miss closed ranks and came achingly close to earning a spot in the national title game. Better yet, stars such as Chambliss (if he is granted an extra year of eligibility) and Lacy have already committed to staying in Oxford despite Kiffin’s efforts to bring them to Baton Rouge. Some stars have exhausted their eligibility, but Ole Miss enters 2026 battle-hardened and full of upside.
What’s next
Miami will officially play in its first national title game in 23 seasons. The Hurricanes are underdogs against Indiana, but they will be playing in their home stadium, and they have to feel like the patented team of destiny right about now.
Close games have been a massive issue for the Canes at times under Mario Cristobal, but in their past three matchups, they’ve won at Texas A&M with a late end zone stop, beaten Ohio State by 10 with clutch execution and found a way past Ole Miss despite so many bounces seemingly going against them.
Beck had a putrid start to the second half but produced late heroics. Mark Fletcher Jr. was again brilliant, rushing for 133 yards. CharMar Brown was again a tough-yardage master, rushing for 54 yards and a touchdown. Marion was a secret weapon, and Toney, the talented freshman, set up a touchdown with a tough third-down conversion in the first half and scored one himself in the fourth quarter.
The defense couldn’t corral Chambliss, recording only one sack, but the Canes allowed just one big run to Lacy and the backs. And they absolutely dominated third downs: Ole Miss went just 2-for-10 while the Canes went 11-for-19. Credit to the Rebels for nearly winning anyway, but the Canes controlled most of what they wanted to control. They hogged the ball beautifully, and when that couldn’t win them the game, they sped up the tempo and won a back-and-forth final quarter.
