Making 32 bets before the season might feel like a lot, but when you look at how many markets are available to wager on — team futures, win totals, award markets, player props, “Game of the Year” betting, etc., it’s really not all that excessive. Of course, if you had just blindly bet one unit on each of all 32 of our plays from last year’s article, you’d have been up 7.26 units, and you’re probably thrilled to see we’re back with this article again.
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We’ll start in the AFC, with one bet for each team in the NFL this season.
Baltimore Ravens
The best-case scenario for Baltimore is that Jesse Minter and a bolstered defensive front works well enough that the majority of Ravens games are in control in the fourth quarter — and when they are, Derrick Henry can salt them away without Lamar Jackson needing to scramble around.
Optimism is high for Jackson’s statistics because he comes into the season healthy, but like last year, he may not stay that way. Whether that means missed time, or similar inefficiency to 2025 when he had just 349 rushing yards on 67 carries in 13 games, we’ll bet Jackson — turning 30 this season — doesn’t get loose frequently enough to clear this rushing total.
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Bet: Lamar Jackson under 599.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Buffalo Bills
Young Josh Allen didn’t score nearly as many touchdowns as Allen has in his late-20s. The rushing yardage has come down over the last three seasons, but Allen has 15, 12 and 14 rushing touchdowns in those campaigns respectively, despite having James Cook available to hand the ball off to near the goal line. Until Allen wins a Super Bowl, or is dragged off the field to break his Ironman streak, he’ll do anything to win games, and that means continuing to call his own number near the goal line.
Bet: Josh Allen over 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-128, FanDuel)
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Cincinnati Bengals
Long-time teammates going back to their days at LSU, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have both been healthy for two total seasons in their professional careers.
Chase had a 1,455-yard rookie season with eight touchdowns in 2021, and 1,700-plus yards and 17 touchdowns in 2024. The latter would have been good enough for an Offensive Player of the Year award, but Saquon Barkley went bananas that season.
Bet: Ja’Marr Chase to win Offensive Player of the Year (10-1, FanDuel)
Cleveland Browns
Starting with the appointment of Deshaun Watson as the No. 1 quarterback, the Browns’ depth chart is full of head-scratchers.
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They could have their usual bad offense/good defense, or with new pieces and an offensive-minded head coach, the opposite, with Myles Garrett.
The most likely result is that, intentionally or otherwise, with Watson in and Garrett off to L.A., the start of the rebuild is finally underway in Cleveland.
Bet: Browns under 5.5 wins (+105, DraftKings)
Denver Broncos
Did Sean Payton get the final piece to unlock Denver’s offense in trading for Jaylen Waddle?
The Broncos’ crowded wide receiver room had many of the same big-target players, but Waddle isn’t just capable of catching a lot of balls (104 in his 2021 rookie season) or as a yards-per-catch maven (18.1 in 2022), but in a good offense with reliable quarterback play, the speedster can be a game-breaker. Luckily, because Waddle had to deal with shoddy quarterback play and was often overshadowed by running mate Tyreek Hill, he’s lined below 1,000 receiving yards.
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If Waddle is beset by injuries, he won’t get to that number anyway, but if he’s healthy, the ceiling is much higher, so it’s worth taking a shot at bigger odds for a 1,250-yard season.
Bet: Jaylen Waddle: 1,250-plus receiving yards (+450, DraftKings)
DENVER, CO – AUGUST 21: Denver Broncos wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) runs after a catch in the first quarter during a preseason game between the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on August 21, 2026 in Denver, Colorado.
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Houston Texans
An under-the-radar play on the idea that Houston has a great season is DeMeco Ryans to be voted Coach of the Year.
Expectations are high for the Texans, but they didn’t win the AFC South last season, which means there is room for improvement — a necessity in voters’ eyes.
The other path to award-level credit is a gaudy record, and Houston’s schedule sets up as challenging, but manageable, with the toughest games coming at home, starting with the Bills in Week 1.
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Lastly, few head coaches are associated with a dominant unit in the way that Ryans is with the Texans’ top-ranked defense last season.
Bet: DeMeco Ryans to win Coach of the Year (40-1, DraftKings)
Indianapolis Colts
Before the Colts’ Week 11 bye, rookie tight end Tyler Warren had nine games with a yards-per-catch rate of better than 10.0, and 61.7 receiving yards per game.
After the bye, which included four games with either Philip Rivers or Riley Leonard at quarterback, he had none.
With a full offseason to get ready for the rigors of 17 games, Daniel Jones back, Shane Steichen knowing what Warren’s capable in the Colts’ offense and the 111 targets that went to Michael Pittman in 2025 needing to go elsewhere, Warren should make a run at 100 receptions, and 1,000 yards.
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Bet: Tyler Warren: 1,000-plus receiving yards (+330, FanDuel)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Even when the future for Trevor Lawrence seemed a little dark, he was still throwing for 4,000 yards in 2022 and 2023. After playing only 10 games in 2024, Lawrence was right back to 4,000 last year, in his first season working with Liam Coen.
Coming off a division-winning season, the Jaguars’ schedule is going to get tougher, and a nine-game winning streak probably isn’t in the cards. However, that’s a good thing for Lawrence’s passing volume, as more competitive games means he’ll need to throw it more often. Plus, the Jacksonville pass offense didn’t even really start to click until the latter half of 2025, when Coen figured out the receiver setup for Lawrence.
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Bet: Trevor Lawrence over 3,750.5 passing yards (-114, FanDuel)
Kansas City Chiefs
With Patrick Mahomes looking set to return ready for Week 1, I assumed an under would be in order due to market overreaction. However, the expectations are relatively tempered for someone who won a Super Bowl while nursing a high-ankle sprain.
If he’s structurally functioning, Mahomes will play, and he’s never thrown for fewer than 26 touchdowns in a season that he’s started at least 16 games.
The acquisition of Kenneth Walker might cut into the percentage of Chiefs’ touchdowns that come through the air, but if Walker and a rebuilt O-line provide a better rushing attack between the 20s, it would give the Chiefs more opportunities near the goal line, and the volume should go up across the board.
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Mahomes still has Travis Kelce as a red zone threat, quick tosses to Xavier Worthy on the outside and Rashee Rice was only available to the Chiefs’ QB for eight games last season, with five touchdown connections. Many as part of the designed tap-pass variety.
Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 24.5 passing TDs (-130, Bet365)
Las Vegas Raiders
In the NFL, getting a high draft pick is only relevant if you haven’t already tabbed your quarterback of the future, and the last thing that Klint Kubiak (and his boss, Tom Brady) want to do is lose a lot in Vegas, during his first season as a head coach. As a result, we might see more of Kirk Cousins, and less of No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza than we might expect this season.
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Kubiak was in Minnesota from 2019 to 2021 for the best years of Cousins’ career, so it’s not a coincidence the two have reconnected here. If they can get on the same page, there are a few winnable games on the schedule before a late bye in Week 13.
At 4-8 through 12 games, with an extra week to prepare, Week 14 might be the spot to give Mendoza the reins. At which point, he would have only five games to get over his prescribed passing total.
Bet: Fernando Mendoza under 2,199.5 passing yards (-130, Bet365)
Los Angeles Chargers
Greg Roman got to drive a Ferrari when one Harbaugh gave him the Ravens’ offensive coordinator job at the start of Lamar Jackson’s career, but he didn’t know how to drive a Lamborghini in Justin Herbert, when another tabbed him to be his OC.
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Herbert started his career by averaging 287 passing yards in his first three seasons; in the last two, he’s averaged 230. Part of that is due to an offensive line that lost both high-investment tackles last season, but Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are back, and Mike McDaniel is now at the helm of an offense with the most dynamic receivers, at the right stage of their career, that Herbert has ever had.
Situationally speaking, if former defensive coordinator Jesse Minter’s departure means the Chargers are in more shootouts, that’s an even better setup for McDaniel to take his high-octane QB for a spin.
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Bet: Justin Herbert over 3,599.5 passing yards (-110, Bet365)
Miami Dolphins
Maybe it’s a cop-out, but we’ll use a play from our look at the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates, because there’s already been a development since last week’s post.
We postulated the idea that Jacob Rodriguez could have a path to starting at middle linebacker — the role of tackling-machine — over Tyrel Dodson. Sure enough, Dodson was flat-out released during cut-down day last weekend.
Bet: Jacob Rodriguez to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (15-1, DraftKings)
New England Patriots
Teams keep trying Christian Gonzalez, because the other New England corners — Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones — are no fun to throw against either. Just 24 years old, Gonzalez is widely respected as one of the best young defensive backs in the league, but he didn’t have an interception last season. He did have 10 passes defended in 14 games, so he’s getting his hands on the ball, and the opportunity for bigger splash plays might come with it.
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If the Patriots’ defense takes another step forward, without a clear-cut star in the front, Gonzalez could follow Patrick Surtain from 2024, when also 24 years old, he had four interceptions and won Defensive Player of the Year representing an ensemble in Denver.
Bet: Christian Gonzalez to win Defensive Player of the Year (55-1, FanDuel)
New York Jets
Garrett Wilson is lined at 999.5 receiving yards in the prop market.
That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to have a 1,000-yard season, but it infers that it’s about 50/50.
If Wilson does rack up 1000+ yards, it probably means Geno Smith has played pretty well for the Jets, opening the door for a big season from Wilson, on a team likely to be frequently playing from behind.
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While Wilson’s injury wasn’t the most serious, neither was Joe Burrow’s before 2024 or Christian McCaffrey’s before 2025. A good season from Smith would be something of a comeback, but he isn’t returning from an injury. Meanwhile, the other pass-catchers conceptually eligible for Comeback Player of the Year have more complicated paths to a massive statistical season, and even shorter odds.
Instead of betting Wilson to get to 1,000 yards at -110 odds, let’s see if Wilson can get closer to 1,300 yards and get in the mix for an award at 55-1.
Bet: Garrett Wilson to win Comeback Player of the Year (55-1)
EAST RUTHERFORD, NEW JERSEY – AUGUST 14: Garrett Wilson #5 of the New York Jets in action during the game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at MetLife Stadium on August 14, 2026 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
(Evan Bernstein via Getty Images)
Pittsburgh Steelers
At 40 years old, in Year 2 with the Jets, Aaron Rodgers handed the ball off to Breece Hall (209) and Braelon Allen (98) a whopping 311 times. Last year, Jaylen Warren (211) and Kenneth Gainwell (114) combined for 325 carries.
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Rico Dowdle’s familiar with a backfield timeshare, but he’s managed near identical seasons with two teams in two seasons:
2024 with Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas: 235 carries for 1,079 rushing yards
2025 with Chuba Hubbard in Carolina: 236 carries for 1,076 rushing yards
Dowdle played through injury in the latter half of last season, finding a way to still get a heavy workload. Just splitting carries with Warren would mean 160, and, at his usual 4.6 yards per tote, that would add up to 736 rushing yards. All without factoring Dowdle’s ability to find his way to more opportunities and production than that.
Bet: Rico Dowdle over 699.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Tennessee Titans
This isn’t going to sound very nice.
Cam Ward’s underlying metrics were so bad last season that the Titans reached for Carnell Tate with the No. 4 pick in April’s draft. However, Tate now has to line up against NFL defensive backs instead of the frequently-soft opponents on Ohio State’s schedule.
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Last season, Tate had just 12 total receptions in games against Texas, Washington, Indiana and Miami, and in 2024, he had 11 total catches in games against Oregon (twice), Penn State, Indiana, Tennessee and Notre Dame.
He also has to break the huddle without Jeremiah Smith lining up on the other side of the field, getting all of a college defense’s attention. Going from taking on No. 2 college corners to potentially getting the NFL’s No. 1’s (depending on the threat level of Calvin Ridley) is going to be a stark contrast.
Bet: Carnell Tate under 775.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
You can find more valuable betting analysis on player props, stat leaders, and award markets from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
