Looking for some lead-pipe NFL wagering locks for the upcoming season? Bad news: They don’t exist.
Looking for some solid NFL betting trends that are actionable if you can find related value in the wagering markets? Now, I’ve got you covered.
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On the heels of my AFC breakdown, here’s another bushel of NFL betting trends — three for each NFC squad — that cover a variety of angles, including Week 1 side and total tendencies, recent one-sided rivalry results, season-long player prop histories and futures trends that span decades.
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Spoiler alert: Think twice before betting against the Eagles before Thanksgiving, backing the Falcons or Giants in Week 1, or fading the quarterback who has gone from colossal bust to Super Bowl champion in the past two years.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
• Dallas went 12-5 in three successive seasons from 2021-23, posting a cumulative 33-18 record against the spread along the way. In the ensuing two years, the Cowboys are 14-19-1 straight up and 14-20 ATS, including 6-7 SU and 3-10 ATS as a betting favorite.
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• You have to go back to the turn of the century for the last time Dallas had fewer than eight victories in three straight seasons — it went 5-11 each year from 2000-02. Clearly, the betting markets foresee a bounce-back season for “America’s Team,” whose consensus win-total projection is 9.5.
• The Cowboys have treated defense like an optional activity lately, which explains why 66% of their games have gone over the total the past three seasons (33-17-1, including 16-8-1 at AT&T Stadium).
New York Giants
• The Giants reeled in the biggest coaching fish during the offseason by signing John Harbaugh, who takes over a franchise that has exceeded its preseason win total just twice in the past 15 years. New York, which has won 14 total games the past three seasons, is projected for 7.5 victories in 2026-27.
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• The Giants have lost 16 of 18 games to NFC East rival Dallas since the start of the 2017 season (6-12 ATS). Additionally, they are 5-19 SU against Philadelphia since 2014 (12-12 ATS).
• Going back to 2011, New York is 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS in season openers (1-5 SU and ATS this decade). The Giants kick off this season as a consensus 2.5-point home underdog versus Dallas.
Philadelphia Eagles
• Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Philadelphia is 37-8 prior to December (28-16-1 ATS). The breakdown: 17-4 at home (12-8-1 ATS) and 20-4 in road/neutral site contests (16-8 ATS).
• Given their pre-December success, it’s not surprising that the Eagles have won five consecutive season openers (3-2 ATS). In fact, they’re 15-3 SU in Week 1 dating to 2008 (but only 11-7 ATS). Philly kicks off the 2026-27 ledger as a 4.5-point home favorite against NFC East rival Washington.
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• If you spot the Eagles catching points this season, keep this NFL betting trend in mind: Philadelphia has scored five consecutive upsets when taking the field as an underdog (including a blowout victory over the Chiefs in Super Bowl 59).
Washington Commanders
• Washington has been riding a roller coaster the past three seasons, going from 4-13 to 12-5 to 5-12. And that roller coaster has not been fun for bettors, as the Commanders are 23-27-1 ATS during this stretch. They’ve been particularly miserable as a home underdog (1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS).
• Since Week 10 of 2023, the over is 29-16-1 in Commanders games (including three playoff contests). The over also has cashed in 16 of the last 23 games played in D.C.
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• Only one Washington quarterback since 2018 has thrown more than 21 touchdown passes in a season. That was Jayden Daniels, who had 25 scoring tosses as a rookie in 2024. Daniels’ TD projection at BetMGM entering this season: 21.5.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
• Last year, Chicago (11-6) posted double-digit victories, won the NFC North and soared past its preseason win total of 8.5. It was the first time since 2018 that the franchise reached any of those milestones — and just the second time it did so since 2012.
• The Bears, who are projected for 9.5 victories, are even-money (+100) to return to the playoffs in 2026-27, per BetMGM. It’s been exactly two decades since the franchise earned back-to-back postseason berths.
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• Chicago dropped four of its six division games last year (2-3-1 ATS), continuing an alarming NFL betting trend: Since 2020, the Bears are 9-27 versus NFC North rivals (12-22-2 ATS), including 3-15 at home (4-13-1 ATS). They’re also 2-12 SU and 3-10-1 ATS versus the Packers over the past seven seasons.
(Geoff Stellfox via Getty Images)
Detroit Lions
• The Lions entered last season on an astonishing 43-20 spread-covering heater that dated back to Week 10 of 2021 and included three consecutive 12-5 ATS seasons. They quickly pushed that to 47-21 ATS by covering four of their first five games in 2025-26. From there, though, Detroit finished on a 4-8 ATS slide.
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• During their season-ending point spread slump, the Lions went 1-3 ATS as an underdog. Even with that, Detroit is still 26-14 ATS in its last 40 games when catching points (playoffs included).
• Backing the Lions through Halloween has been a profitable endeavor of late. Since the 2023 campaign kicked off, Detroit is 21-6 SU and 20-7 ATS in the first nine games of the season.
Green Bay Packers
• Despite a disappointing 9-7-1 record in 2025-26, Green Bay returned to the playoffs for the third straight year. The Packers have now reached the postseason in 25 of the last 33 seasons going back to 1993. They begin 2026-27 as a slight favorite to continue that streak (-140 at BetMGM).
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• The Packers are 18-1 SU and 15-4 ATS in home openers since 2007, including an ongoing 12-game winning streak. This year’s first game at Lambeau Field isn’t until Week 3, when Green Bay hosts the Falcons as a 7.5-point favorite.
• Through his first four NFL seasons, Packers wide receiver Christian Watson has yet to eclipse 620 receiving yards. Watson enters this season as the team’s No. 1 wideout and a receiving yards projection of 775.5 at BetMGM. Note that since 2017, only three Packers have cleared 775 receiving yards: Davante Adams (five times), Jayden Reed (twice) and Allen Lazard (once).
Minnesota Vikings
• During its stunning 14-3 SU and 11-5-1 ATS season in 2024-25, Minnesota covered the point spread in six of eight home games. Otherwise, though, the Vikings are 15-25-1 ATS (37.5%) as a host this decade.
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• Speaking of games played in Minnesota, the under is 11-5 at U.S. Bank Stadium the past two years, including a 6-0 streak to close last season.
• The Vikings opened 2025-26 in Chicago and scored a 27-24 upset as a 1.5-point underdog, extending this solid NFL betting trend: Minnesota has won and covered six straight games at Soldier Field. That’s part of the team’s 9-3 SU and 7-4-1 ATS record against the Bears this decade.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
• Coming off a second straight 8-9 season, Atlanta has now recorded a losing record in eight consecutive years and cleared its win-total projection only once. Expectations remain low for the Falcons, who are pegged for 6.5 or 7.5 victories in 2026-27, depending on the sportsbook.
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• The Falcons have dropped seven of their last eight season openers (2-6 ATS), and the under is 7-2 in their last nine Week 1 contests. Atlanta debuts this year as a consensus 3-point underdog at Pittsburgh, and the total is 41.5.
• The Falcons have faced division rival Carolina a dozen times this decade, and the underdog is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS.
Carolina Panthers
• Like Atlanta, Carolina has finished under .500 in each of the last eight seasons. Unlike Atlanta, the Panthers’ 8-9 record in 2025-26 was good enough to win the lowly NFC South on a tiebreaker and end a seven-year postseason drought. Carolina’s odds of making the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time since a three-year run from 2013-15: +225 at BetMGM.
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• Although the Panthers outperformed preseason expectations last year, they still have fallen short of their win total in six of the past eight seasons. With Carolina’s 2026-27 victory forecast set at 7.5, this NFL betting trend bears mentioning: The franchise hasn’t gone over its win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.
• The Panthers have been favored in just 18 of 101 games since the start of this decade. Their record as a chalk: 4-14 SU and ATS. Half of those wins (including one last year) came against the Jets.
New Orleans Saints
• New Orleans has fallen short of seven victories just three times this century — but it happened each of the last two years (5-12 in 2024-25 and 6-11 last year). It’s the first time since 1980-81 that the franchise won fewer than six games in back-to-back seasons. The Saints enter 2026-27 projected for 7.5 wins.
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• New Orleans has gone five straight years without making the playoffs, the team’s longest drought since 2001-05. The odds of that drought ending this year: +185 at BetMGM.
• One reason for optimism in the Big Easy? The Saints finished strong last year, winning four of their final six contests while going 6-0 ATS — the team’s best spread-covering streak since early 2019. New Orleans, which is a 7-point underdog at Detroit in Week 1, hasn’t had a longer run of profitability since going 9-0 ATS from Weeks 3-12 in 2018.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Tampa Bay’s franchise-record run of five straight NFC South titles ended last year when it finished 8-9 and lost a three-way tiebreaker for first place. That result aside, the Buccaneers are clear favorites to rule the division in 2026-27, with odds ranging from +164 to +210. No other NFC South squad has a division title price lower than +240.
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• The Bucs torched bettors last year, finishing with an NFL-worst 5-12 ATS record. That includes a season-ending 0-9 ATS slide — the longest point-spread slump since the franchise debuted in 1976. Previously, Tampa Bay had never gone more than seven straight games without covering the number.
• Here’s an ongoing NFL betting trend to track in 2026-27: The road team is 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in the last nine Bucs-Saints meetings. This year, the NFC South rivals meet in Week 15 (at Tampa Bay) and Week 18 (at New Orleans).
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
• Arizona went 3-14 last year — a .176 winning percentage that ranks as the franchise’s worst since 1954. Take out an 11-6 record in 2021, and the Cardinals are 50-96-1 over the past 10 seasons. The betting market clearly expects another dry autumn in the desert, as Arizona’s 2026-27 win total of 3.5 is the lowest in the league.
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• One positive NFL betting trend for the Cardinals: They’re 6-1 ATS in season openers since 2019, with five of those spread covers coming as an underdog. Arizona kicks off this season as a consensus 10.5-point underdog at the Chargers.
• The Cardinals didn’t win a single divisional game last year, going just 1-5 ATS. Since 2022, they’re 4-20 SU and 7-17 ATS against NFC West rivals.
(MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images via Getty Images)
Los Angeles Rams
• During Sean McVay’s nine seasons as head coach, Los Angeles has registered double-digit wins and hurdled its preseason win total seven times (doing both in each of the past three years). Prior to McVay’s arrival, the Rams had posted 13 consecutive non-winning seasons while falling short of their win total 10 times. This year, L.A.’s consensus win projection is 11.5, tied for the highest in the league.
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• Looking for a couple of late-season NFL betting trends to tail? Going back to 2019, Los Angeles is 28-10-1 ATS in December and January (playoffs excluded). Ironically, though, the Rams are 0-6 ATS in their penultimate game during this decade. This year’s Week 17 contest: at Tampa Bay.
• Since returning to California from St. Louis in 2016, the Rams are 30-13 SU and 29-14-1 ATS against NFC West rivals Arizona and Seattle in the regular season and playoffs. However, they’re 8-13 SU and ATS versus the 49ers, including 3-8 SU/ATS when playing in Los Angeles.
San Francisco 49ers
• San Francisco is coming off a 12-5 campaign and has now racked up double-digit victories in four of the past five seasons (the lone outlier being 2024-25, when it finished 6-11). Oddsmakers once again are high on the 49ers, who are projected for 10.5 victories. For what it’s worth, the 49ers have topped their win total in consecutive seasons just once in the last 12 years (2022 and 2023).
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• San Francisco has been money for “over” bettors in the last three-plus seasons, as 62.5% of their games since Week 13 of 2022 have cleared the total (35-21-1). On the flip side, the under 10-2 in the 49ers’ last dozen season openers.
• Not only has San Francisco won and covered three consecutive season openers, but the team is 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) in Week 2 since 2018. The Niners kick off the 2026-27 season Sept. 10 in Australia against the Rams, then host Miami in Week 2.
Seattle Seahawks
• On the way to winning its second Super Bowl, Seattle went 14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS (tied for second best in the league) and easily cleared its preseason win total of 8.5. The Seahawks, who are 6-1-1 to the over on their win total since 2018, are projected for 10.5 victories in 2026-27.
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• In his first six NFL seasons, quarterback Sam Darnold went 21-35 SU and 22-33-1 ATS as a starter. In the past two regular seasons — one with Minnesota, one with Seattle — the former No. 3 pick is 28-6 SU and 23-10-1 ATS, including 24-3 SU and 18-8-1 ATS as a favorite.
• Seattle has won nine straight games against NFC West foe Arizona (8-1 ATS). What’s more, the Seahawks are 11-1-1 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 trips to the desert. This year, the two teams square off in Week 2 (at Arizona) and Week 9 (at Seattle).
