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Find one glowing review of the Minnesota Vikings’ addition of quarterback Kyler Murray — and there are plenty — that doesn’t mention Murray’s salary as the foremost reason to love it. We’ll wait.
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Of course Murray’s veteran’s minimum salary is a great financial deal for the Vikings. He’s making $1.3 million, the same as a backup linebacker who contributes on special teams or swing offensive tackle. A cheap salary alone doesn’t mean Murray will bring the Vikings back to the playoffs.
Murray has played a lot of football. He has logged 87 career games. Terrell Davis had a Hall of Fame career and played just 78. And Murray has never truly broken out. His 92.2 career passer rating puts him in the middle of the pack of current NFL quarterbacks. The Cardinals made the playoffs one time with Murray and got blown out in their only postseason game.
This offseason, the woebegone Cardinals decided they’d rather have Jacoby Brissett as their quarterback and pay a dead cap hit of $54.7 million to simply be done with Murray. Does that sound like a savior? Murray has consistently shown that his level is average, and that’s over a sample size of seven NFL seasons.
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The main benefit of adding Murray, outside of it costing almost nothing because the Cardinals were picking up so much of his 2026 salary, was that the Vikings could start someone other than J.J. McCarthy.
Pay little mind to offseason chatter that there’s a quarterback competition. If Murray doesn’t start the season at quarterback, it would be a surprise. McCarthy was so bad last season that the Vikings wanted a better option even though McCarthy has just 10 starts. There’s a scenario in which McCarthy, the 10th pick of the 2024 draft, has a great training camp and the Vikings can entertain starting the season with him at QB1. But that wasn’t the plan when they landed Murray, no matter how flawed Murray is as a player or whatever the team is saying about a competition.
Even as McCarthy was stumbling in his first season as a starter, the Vikings managed a 9-8 record. Finishing above .500 with the 32nd-best team passer rating in the NFL had to contribute to Minnesota’s impatience. The Vikings were 14-3 a season before, let Sam Darnold leave in free agency (they also couldn’t retain Daniel Jones, who was on their practice squad late in the 2024 season), then watched Darnold win a Super Bowl in Seattle while they had a frustrating season that would have been a lot better with even mediocre quarterback play.
Maybe Murray can be that mediocre quarterback. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell has shown he can get the most out of many quarterbacks, just not McCarthy apparently. If O’Connell elevates Murray, which would mean the offense would rediscover Justin Jefferson after his maddeningly quiet season, the defense should be good enough again.
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Defensive coordinator Brian Flores returning despite there being 10 head coaching openings had to be tough for Flores but it was a boon for the Vikings. Flores has run Minnesota’s defense for three seasons, and the DVOA finishes have been 11th, second and third. The Vikings lost a lot off the defensive line this offseason, so Flores’ coaching will be even more important.
It wasn’t long ago that the Vikings entered a Week 18 game against the Lions with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line. That seems like a distant memory after an ugly 2025 season. Minnesota is hoping Murray can get it closer to that 14-win threshold. At least it’s not costing them much to find out.
Kyler Murray joins the Minnesota Vikings after seven seasons with the Cardinals. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)
(David Berding via Getty Images)
Offseason grade
The Vikings fired general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in late January, and then started to clean up some of the salary cap mess he created. Defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave were cut; both signed deals worth more than $10 million per season elsewhere. Minnesota traded edge rusher Jonathan Greenard to Philadelphia for a pair of third-round picks. The Eagles signed Greenard to a four-year, $100 million extension after the trade.
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The Vikings lost three good linemen from their defensive front, which is evident from the salaries they commanded with other teams. A lot is now expected from edge rusher Dallas Turner, a 2024 first-round pick who did take strides with eight sacks last season. Minnesota also lost receiver Jalen Nailor, who the Raiders thought was worth more than $35 million over three years.
Minnesota didn’t do much in free agency, feeling the cap crunch. They did sign former 49ers receiver Jauan Jennings for $8 million over one year, and also cornerback James Pierre for $8.5 million over two years. No other outside free agent got more than $1.5 million, though Kyler Murray’s minimum $1.3 million deal is included in that.
The draft class, led by defensive lineman Caleb Banks and linebacker Jake Golday in the first and second rounds, was panned. Minnesota’s draft got the fourth-worst consensus grade, and two of the three teams behind them didn’t have a first-round pick.
Jennings was a good addition and Murray was a value, but the roster overall took some hits.
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Grade: D+
Quarterback report
Although the Vikings’ plan is clearly to start Kyler Murray, we can’t rule out the possibility of J.J. McCarthy making it a true competition or perhaps even winning the job by opening day. While McCarthy’s first year starting wasn’t good, 10 games is not enough to judge a quarterback. And it was less than 2 ½ years ago that the Vikings thought enough of McCarthy’s talent to trade up and take him 10th overall.
It would be very rare if McCarthy doesn’t get another shot, in Minnesota or elsewhere. Among top 10 draft picks at quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, only five got fewer than 10 career starts (Trey Lance, Art Schlichter, Andre Ware, Clint Longley, Rich Campbell).
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McCarthy’s lack of experience — he had just 713 passing attempts at Michigan — has been exacerbated by injuries, including a knee injury that cost him the entire 2024 season. When he played, it wasn’t pretty. Among quarterbacks with 300 dropbacks, McCarthy finished 33rd out of 34 in EPA (expected points added) per play. Only Titans rookie Cam Ward was worse.
McCarthy rallied after three bad quarters in Week 1 to help the Vikings to a comeback win over the Bears, and he also had positive outings in wins over the Lions, Commanders and Cowboys. But the poor games overshadowed any progress. His mechanics needed work, and that contributed to too many inaccurate throws. McCarthy rarely seemed comfortable, and while that isn’t unusual for a first-year starting QB, the Vikings want to compete now.
McCarthy could reemerge as a starter, perhaps even early this season. But he faces an uphill battle after less than a full season of starts in the NFL.
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “It was a disastrous 2025 season for Minnesota, as the Vikings effectively chose quarterback J.J. McCarthy over Sam Darnold — only to see Darnold win a Super Bowl with the Seahawks and McCarthy struggle immensely. The Vikings did win five straight games (against mostly bad competition) to close the season and somehow finish 9-8.
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“With a win total of 8.5, the worst odds (+525) of any team to win the NFC North and a big underdog to make the playoffs (+170), oddsmakers aren’t expecting much from the Vikings. If free agent QB (and presumed starter) Kyler Murray gives Minnesota even league-average QB play, Minnesota could be a team that surprises. The Vikings are favored in only eight games, but their biggest spread in any game is +4.5.”
Yahoo’s fantasy take
From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “For years I’ve said I’d follow Kevin O’Connell into a burning building. OK, last year, the building burned down. But I’m willing to write that off as a J.J. McCarthy thing. Kyler Murray is getting a change of scenery at the right time, which makes him an interesting value pick at the middle of your draft. But more importantly, be ready to snag Justin Jefferson sometime in the late first round or the early second round. This is a very rare and exciting buying opportunity on Jefferson.”
Stat to remember
This is all you need to know about the 2025 Vikings: They finished 28th in EPA per play on offense and third on EPA allowed per play on defense. The only other teams close to being that lopsided were the Cowboys, who had a terrible defense, and the Browns, who were even worse than Minnesota on offense.
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If there’s one game that summed up last season’s Vikings, it came in Week 17 against the Lions. Vikings won 23-10 with just 3 net passing yards as Max Brosmer started at quarterback. That was the second fewest net passing yards from any winning team in 43 seasons (the Texans won with -5 passing yards in a 2006 win over the Raiders), according to Josh Dubow of Associated Press. The Vikings usually had to overcome a rough offense, and more times than not last season they did win.
Brian Flores has proven he’s among the best defensive coordinators in the NFL, if not the best. Minnesota was once again the most blitz-heavy team in the NFL. Their blitz rate was 48% and no other team reached 34%, according to Sharp Football Analysis. With the Vikings losing a ton off the defensive line, expect Minnesota to again lead the NFL in blitzes. It’s a style that suits them well.
Burning question: Can Kyler Murray help Justin Jefferson?
Even the great Justin Jefferson wasn’t immune to a down season with bad quarterback play. Jefferson had by far the quietest season of what has already been a record-setting career. As a rookie he had 87.5 yards per game, and that was his career low until last season when he averaged 61.6 yards per game. He had 40 touchdowns his first two seasons and just two last season. His yards per catch last season was 12.5 after never being below 14 yards per catch in any season before.
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Everyone knows what happened. The Vikings quarterbacks were so bad they couldn’t even get a future Hall of Fame receiver the ball enough to matter. Kyler Murray doesn’t have a great track record of elevating receivers. The only wideout to have a 1,000-yard season with Murray as his primary quarterback was DeAndre Hopkins’ 1,407-yard season in 2020, and tight end Trey McBride also had 1,000 yards in 2024.
But Murray will be a better asset than J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer were last season. Murray’s plan should be to find No. 18 and target him often.
Best-case scenario
The Vikings can aspire to follow the path of the 2025 Colts. The 2024 Colts, with inexperienced and inefficient second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson Sr., finished 31st in passer rating but managed an 8-9 record. They signed castoff Daniel Jones, who beat out Richardson at quarterback, and the offense took off during an 8-2 start to the season (an injury to Jones derailed that start).
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The Vikings went 9-8 last season with miserable quarterback play. Kyler Murray isn’t perfect but he will be an upgrade over the mess the Vikings had at QB last season. And given Kevin O’Connell’s history with quarterbacks, maybe Murray will have a career year.
The Vikings were 14-3 in 2024 and had they re-signed Sam Darnold or Jones, maybe they would have been back in the playoffs. If Minnesota can absorb some of the personnel losses from the offseason and Murray is at least a top-half starting NFL quarterback, the Vikings could compete for a division title in a tough NFC North. They might not be as far off as it seemed at times last season.
Nightmare scenario
Just because quarterbacks like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith had career revivals after they had been given up on doesn’t make it a likely outcome for anyone else. Kyler Murray will be 29 this season, and the annual predictions of his breakout season have always been wrong in the past. Murray can’t be as bad as the Vikings’ quarterbacks were last season, but he might not be very good either, and Minnesota’s roster around QB was downgraded.
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The Vikings are the favorites to finish last in a tough NFC North. They haven’t thrown in the towel on the 10th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, but it’s close. If Murray, on a one-year deal, can’t lift Minnesota out of last place then what’s the Vikings’ next move?
The crystal ball says
The Vikings have a reasonable floor and a pretty high ceiling, too. But the optimism about Kyler Murray is rooted more in blind faith and trust in Kevin O’Connell’s coaching than anything tangible on Murray’s NFL résumé. There is a chance that a team that won nine games with awful quarterback play last season gets to double-digit wins with below-average quarterback play.
Perhaps Murray finally does have his breakout with a better franchise and a good coach, and then the Vikings really bounce back to their 2024 level. But the roster around the quarterback isn’t better than last season, and the Vikings are the most reasonable pick to finish last in the NFC North. We’ll pick Minnesota to finish in last — though it’s likely they’ll be the best of all the NFL’s last-place teams, if that’s any consolation.
