“Extreme heat increasingly determines the conditions under which agri-food systems operate,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo and FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu stressed in the introduction to the report. “Rising temperatures and heatwaves, which occur with greater frequency, duration and intensity, are often accompanied by prolonged drought and other extreme weather events.”
“Rising temperatures dry out soils, reduce yields, stress livestock, disrupt fisheries, and increase the risk of wildfires,” the pair wrote. “When combined with water scarcity, the consequences intensify, leading to reduced production, lower incomes, and reduced food supplies.” “These impacts extend far beyond the farm gate. They represent a systemic risk to global food security and to the livelihoods of more than 1.23 billion people who depend on agriculture.”
For example, yields on staple crops such as corn and wheat have already fallen by 7.5% and 6%, respectively, as global temperature rises 1°C above pre-industrial levels. The publication notes that returns “are expected to decline by up to an additional 10% for each degree Celsius of global warming in the future.”
The report also notes that “under high emissions scenarios, nearly half of the world’s livestock could be exposed to dangerous heat by 2100,” resulting in annual losses approaching $40 billion. The report adds that under the low emissions scenario, “impacts from livestock exposure to extreme heat are reduced by about two-thirds.”
The report details vulnerabilities, observed impacts and projections not only for crops and livestock but also for fisheries and aquaculture; Forests, farms and orchards. And agricultural workers.
“Agricultural workers are already experiencing impacts on their health, productivity and income,” Saulo and Chiu stressed. “As climate variability intensifies, hard-won progress in reducing hunger and poverty is under pressure, with shocks rippling through economies and households and disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable.”
The report identifies “the current range of technical agricultural adaptation options and other broader non-technical risk management strategies” to respond to extreme heat, as well as barriers to their implementation. It also provides a case study: the extreme heat event that struck Brazil in 2023-2024.
The report notes that this period in the South American country “serves as a stark example of the breadth and severity of the combined effects that can be caused by an initial extreme heat event.” “On top of the warmer baseline shaped by climate change and amplified by El Niño, the heat wave has simultaneously affected crops, livestock, forests, fisheries and human health.”
“The interconnected failures highlight the profound vulnerability of the entire agricultural sector and the serious impacts that such events have on the livelihoods and food security of millions who depend on it,” the report continues, stressing that “building systemic resilience through adaptation and reducing ad hoc risks is imperative.”
“While this report charts the way toward enhanced resilience, the solutions and opportunities are not endless,” the publication adds. “Along with robust adaptation and risk reduction strategies, the only durable solution to the escalating threat of extreme heat lies in ambitious, multilateral climate change mitigation.”
After the last UN climate change conference, COP30, concluded in Brazil late last year, critics described it as “another failed climate summit.” The United States is the world’s largest historic climate polluter, yet President Donald Trump did not attend, spending his second term not only repealing climate policies but also serving the planet-destroying fossil fuel industry that his campaign money helped return to power.
Trump also started a new illegal war in the Middle East, partnering with Israel to target Iran. This attack confirmed the negative nature of armed conflict Effects Agricultural and food systems around the world. The Iranian government has restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a major trade route, including fertilizers and fossil fuels – raising growing alarm about the global food crisis.
Earlier this month, before the current fragile ceasefire, FAO chief economist Máximo Torero warned that farmers “will soon have to choose: grow the same with fewer inputs, plant less, or switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops.”
“The planting season has already begun and will end in most African countries in May,” Jorge Moreira da Silva, Executive Director of the United Nations Office for Project Services, said on Tuesday. “So, if we do not get an immediate solution, the crisis will be very large and severe, especially for the poorest countries and for the poorest citizens.”
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