We’ve finally made it to Money Time, folks.
The WNBA playoffs will be tipping off this weekend, and we’ve been blessed with four dynamic matchups with varying degrees of star power, scheme versatility, and all the storylines you can hope for if #narratives are your portion.
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For this year’s preview, we’ll be looking at a big picture question for each series, then sprinkling in some other thoughts and questions that may matter moving forward.
Let’s dig in, shall we?
Lynx-Liberty • Dream-Mystics • Valkyries-Wings • Aces-Fever
TALE OF THE TAPE
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Lynx (33-11): 3rd in offense, 4th in defense, 2nd in net rating
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Liberty (26-18): 6th in offense, 7th in defense, 7th in net rating
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Season series: Liberty 2-1
THE BIG QUESTION: Is Olivia Miles ready for playoff pressure?
Don’t take this as your typical “rookie experiences her first playoff series” point. I don’t doubt, assuming she’s healthy enough (please let the calf be OK), that Miles will be ready from a competitive standpoint.
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I mean this more in a literal sense. One of the most fascinating trends in the league to me has been teams progressively picking up Miles higher on the court as the season has gone on. Per Second Spectrum, the pick-up points for Miles have increased every month:
That jump in September is notable, man. Look no further than the most recent matchup between the Lynx and Liberty, where the mixture of Leonie Fiebich, Pauline Astier and Rebekah Gardner took turns hounding Miles well beyond half-court. It’s not that Miles is incapable of beating that type of aggression; she certainly has the speed, handle and elite blend of driving juice and playmaking gumption to beat it.
But that kind of ball pressure and length can just … weigh on you. Miles finished that game with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists – not bad, until you add in that she went 5-of-18 from the field and also turned the ball over five times.
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(Also of note: Fiebich on Miles specifically is a cross-match worth monitoring. Assuming Breanna Stewart gets the Napheesa Collier matchup, the Liberty will be empowered to switch any Miles-Collier actions. Having to deal with the collective size of Fiebich and Jonquel Jones, if you want to get Natasha Howard involved as a screener, isn’t fun either. During their regular season meetings, the Lynx generated only 0.8 points per possession on trips featuring a Miles-Howard pick-and-roll.)
The broader question of how well the Lynx will deal with physicality certainly looms large, but I think we’ll get some early answers based on how successful Miles is dealing with it early in possessions.
OTHER THOUGHTS
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You never want to be reductive when it comes to playoff time, but this series may very well be decided by whichever backcourt decides to show up. Beyond Miles, the Lynx will need a quality shotmaking and decision-making series from Courtney Williams. The Liberty are simply a different (and much better) team when Sabrina Ionescu comes to the party, and the mix of drives and defensive ball pressure from Astier will be key in this one.
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The Liberty rebounded 31.6% of their own misses this season (5th). The Lynx once again ranked toward the bottom of the league in defensive rebound rate (67.7%, 11th). The paint itself will be an important battleground in this series, but the rebound battle will swing things.
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Just to briefly circle back: sign me up for potentially three games of Stewie (please let the knee be OK) and Phee. We’re talking two of the, what, four best players in the league at full-tilt? I’m excited to watch them deal with each other. This is a match made in two-way versatility heaven.
TALE OF THE TAPE
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Dream (30-14): 4th in offense, 3rd in defense, 3rd in net rating
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Mystics (28-16): 12th in offense, 2nd in defense, 8th in net rating
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Season series: Mystics 2-1
THE BIG QUESTION: Whose half-court offense can find daylight?
If you want off-ball hand-fighting, crowded (and dangerous) lanes, and rugged paint play, this is the series for you.
The young Mystics (I refuse) have earned their stripes behind a defense that doesn’t let you breathe. Shakira Austin (please be OK) and Sonia Citron headline this unit; Citron may have been the best wing defender in basketball, while Austin’s blend of scheme versatility and rim protection made her a(nother) worthy Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Michaela Onyenwere is a fantastic defender in her own right (with All-Defense level metrics and tracking data to boot), while Kiki Iriafen has quietly grown into a quality defender that can hold her own in space.
On the other side, the Dream boast the likely frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year in Angel Reese, a rangy thief in Rhyne Howard (who would probably be an All-Pro corner in another lifetime), a smaller-but-still-deadly thief in Jordin Canada, plus a pair of defenders in Allisha Gray and Naz Hillmon that can perform at an All-Defense level on any given night.
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No team turns you over quite like the Dream; seriously, they forced turnovers on a league-high 19.5% of possessions. That doesn’t seem to bode well for a Mystics group that turned the ball over on 19.2% of their possessions, the worst mark in the league.
No team mashes the paint quite like the Mystics, ranking first in the percentage of points that come in the paint, offensive rebound rate, and free throw rate. That doesn’t seem to bode well for a Dream group that fouls quiiite a bit (11th in opponent free throw rate).
I’ve had questions about both of these half-court offenses throughout the year, so it’s a bit funny (and fitting) that they have to face each other in the first round.
OTHER THOUGHTS
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Tied to the overall paint battle, I wonder what the scoring approach for Howard and Gray will be. Gray’s the more consistent downhill threat, and Howard’s at her best when she can complement her perimeter shotmaking (44.8% on 9.7 3s against the Mystics this year) with some drives. The Mystics, more than anyone else, have made their lives difficult when they’ve tried to pressure the rim. Per Second Spectrum, the Mystics had at least one help defender present on 83% of drives from Howard or Gray. Their combined 0.91 PPP clip on drives against the Mystics was their worst against any opponent.
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Actually, we’ll stay in the paint a beat longer. How impactful will rookie centers Lauren Betts (Mystics) and Madina Okot (Dream) be in this series? With Bri Jones done for the season, Okot will be needed for some important spot minutes. Betts generally keeps the rim protection (and offensive rebounding) train rolling when she checks in for Austin or Iriafen; the Mystics will need that to maintain their paint edge.
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Do not sleep on the offensive importance of Canada (she’s made a lot of plays in clutch situations) and, on the Mystics’ side, Georgia Amoore. Coach of the Year candidate Sydney Johnson has spoken about Amoore’s importance as an organizer; if she’s able to make enough shots, the Point Sonia lineups could feel like more of a bonus than a necessity.
TALE OF THE TAPE
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Valkyries (32-12): 7th in offense, 1st in defense, 1st in net rating
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Wings (27-17): 5th in offense, 6th in defense, 6th in net rating
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Season series: Valkyries 3-0
THE BIG QUESTION: Can the Wings crack the code on Golden State’s defense?
It’s not enough to acknowledge the Valkyries having the league’s stingiest defense (99.1 defensive rating). Their defense, per PBP Stats, was nearly 10 points better than league average — making it (statistically, at least) the stingiest defense of all time.
The Wings, headlined by the All-Star duo of Paige Bueckers and Jessica Shepard, posted a franchise-best 111.3 offensive rating during the regular season. They could only muster a 97.8 offensive rating across their three winless matchups against the Valkyries this season.
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Having the trio of Veronica Burton, Gabby Williams and Kiah Stokes to throw at Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale (a former All-Star in her own right) and Shepard is quite the luxury, and that’s before mentioning the other high-wattage options (former Wings Kaila Charles and Kayla Thornton chief among them) they can and did cycle in.
In theory, there’s a level of shot-making that Bueckers and Ogunbowale could tap into that would render Golden State’s defensive chops a bit moot. In general, I wonder what the volume would need to be in order to force Golden State to put two-on-the-ball against either of them, as opposed to the Valkyries ramping up their aggression from a position of strength.
It feels like a different deal with Shepard, who drastically underperformed against the Valkyries compared to her overall regular-season output.
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Overall: 14.5 points (59% on 2s), 11.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists (1.9 turnovers)
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vs GSV: 8.0 points (43.5% on 2s), 9.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists (0.7 turnovers)
She simply has not been able to win enough of her one-on-one opportunities against Stokes or the other Golden State bigs — certainly not enough to draw consistent help, at least. The Wings will need her mix of drives and post-mashing to take pressure off the guards.
OTHER THOUGHTS
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In Bueckers and Williams, we have two of the league’s most dominant fourth-quarter performers. We’re not even 24 hours removed from Williams (and Kaitlyn Chen, whew) snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in their season finale against the Sparks. Bueckers has been nails in the fourth quarter all year, so much so that teams have been (more) willing to outright blitz her to get the ball out of her hands. If these games come down to the wire, I’m excited to see which former Husky will make more plays.
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It’s a boring-yet-important note to make: the Valkyries shot the leather off the ball from deep (37.9% on 31.7 attempts) during the regular-season meetings. Burton (50% on 5.3 attempts) and Williams (35% on 6.7 attempts) in particular didn’t mind letting it fly off the catch or off the bounce. I still have simmering questions about the quality of shots the Valkyries can consistently create in half-court settings; how will this look if the 3s don’t fall to the same level?
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A more fun subplot: the Valkyries tossed out a lot of zone defense in their closing stretch of games. The Wings offense posted, per Second Spectrum, a points-per-chance mark under 0.6, firmly the worst mark in the league. If the Wings are able to find some early success offensively, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Valkyries dip their toes into the zone waters to muck things up.
TALE OF THE TAPE
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Aces (31-13): 2nd in offense, 5th in defense, 4th in net rating
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Fever (28-16): 1st in offense, 8th in defense, 5th in net rating
THE BIG QUESTION: Whose defense will set the tone?
In a matchup featuring the two best offenses in the league — the Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell-led Fever boast the best offensive rating in league history, while this year’s Aces only tied the 2019 Mystics for third-best — I’m more keyed in on the defensive side with these two.
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Both teams have searched for the right blend of coverage versatility and overall activity to varying degrees of success. It’s at least a little funny that they’ve largely landed on who they were last year; the Fever remain one of the league’s most voluminous at-the-level teams, while the Aces are once again a switch-heavy unit.
The Aces’ willingness to switch has flattened out the Fever’s electric offense in key moments. The Fever’s blend of off-ball physicality and unique personnel, headlined by Aliyah Boston (please be okay), has allowed them to grind the Aces’ offense to a halt in key moments. Neither team wants to put two-on-the-ball against the other, because they’re both incredible at capitalizing on advantage situations.
Boston’s health looms really large; she’s, at worst, one of the three best A’ja defenders on the planet with a strong argument for best-in-class. Her blend of size and quickness lessens the need for the Fever to send an extra defender, and has also shaped Wilson’s shot profile in ways that we aren’t accustomed to seeing.
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If the Fever can muck things up for the Aces, it’ll allow them to fly around in transition. Ditto for the Aces if they’re able to slow down this historic unit.
OTHER THOUGHTS
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It only matters so much because the Aces are likely to switch, but I am fascinated by how they dole out the perimeter assignments defensively this time around. Will they start Jackie Young on Mitchell (averaging 27.3 points on 63.7 true shooting against Vegas this year), leaving Steph Talbot (quietly playing well, and more aggressively) to deal with Clark? Or do you flip those assignments and hope that Talbot has the foot speed to deal with Mitchell’s off-ball exploits?
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I’m not sure what to make of Indiana’s second unit heading into this series. Sophie Cunningham shot the leather off the ball during the regular-season matchups (69.2% on 4.3 3s), but has been wildly inconsistent (to be kind) since the All-Star break. Depending on the severity of Ty Harris’ injury, they may have to rely more on rookie point guard Raven Johnson than anticipated. Monique Billings has been uneven, and veteran Mercedes Russell is firmly in the do-your-job-but-not-much-else zone. In a three-game sprint, all you need is one (or even two) of those names to provide some juice.
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While I’m thinking about lineups, I’m fascinated by where Becky Hammon lands with her lineup choices in this one. Will this primarily be a two-big series, or can they find minutes for smaller groups? It’s notable to me that they haven’t had their usual success in their A’ja-at-the-5 alignments, something I asked Hammon about ahead of the season finale against the Mercury. Finding the balance between giving A’ja maximum space to operate with and making sure she isn’t absorbing too many blows at the 5 will be an intricate dance.
