TechCrunch Mobility: Searching for the robotaxi tipping point

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Before we get started, a quick clean-up item. The Transportation Newsletter will not be published next Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

For my American readers, I hope you have a safe, drama-free vacation filled with family and friends, delicious food, and long walks. Good luck to those who travel. For all my international readers, I haven’t forgotten about you. But we all need a little break. I will be back the following week.

Last week, there was a deluge of robotaxi news, much of it driven by Waymo’s wave of expansion announcements.

Waymowhich has commercial taxi service in Atlanta, Austin, Los Angeles, Phoenix and San Francisco, has added more cities to its list. Manual driving (a precursor to testing and deploying driverless driving) will begin in Minneapolis, New Orleans and Tampa next year. Other cities that the Alphabet-owned self-driving company plans to deploy in 2026 are Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Las Vegas, Miami (it just removed safety drivers), Nashville, Orlando, San Antonio, San Diego, Seattle, and Washington, D.C. It is also testing in New York City and plans to offer commercial flights internationally starting with London and Tokyo.

Waymo wasn’t the only company to break some AV news. Tesla It received a permit to hail taxis in Arizona, the final regulatory hurdle to launching a robo-taxi service there. and Zoox It has begun opening a custom-built robotaxi to the public in San Francisco through an early rider program.

All of this led me to ask the question: When will a robot reach a tipping point that will lead to fundamental changes in how people think about getting from point A to point B? Perhaps even more mysterious is how this will affect society and industries (old and new)? I can’t answer the second question, but I have some thoughts on the first.

In short (and from my point of view), we are not there yet.

It’s not just about the size of one player. Waymo’s rapid rollout is sure to introduce the idea and experience to more people. But this is not enough.

Here’s what it takes, in my view: geography, competition, and indirect impact on the ecosystem. Certain cities will carry more social weight than others – at least when it comes to reaching that tipping point. The saturation in San Francisco makes sense, but it’s also a technology incubator area. To me, the saturation of robo-taxis in densely populated cities in the Southeast and East Coast, as well as in mid-sized cities in the Midwest, would be a tipping point indicator.

I also look for the indirect impact of startups, where the startup and corporate ecosystem is launched and supported by automated bots. Service-related businesses are the obvious one. But even startups love Single point of navigationwhich has developed the precise location technology and is located in our deals section, would qualify under my definition.

Finally, competition. This is important for several reasons, including that it can lead to lower prices for the user and offer different business models.

So, what do you think? Sign up for our Mobility newsletter to vote in this week’s poll, where we ask: When do you expect robot automation to reach a tipping point of mass adoption that will impact how people get from point A to point B?

birdie

Many small birds were chirping at the top reporters Sean O’Kane ear last week about autonomous electric starting Monarch tractor. Some of them shared an internal company memo explaining that the startup is on the precarious verge of shutting down.

In the memo, executives warned employees that they may need to lay off more than 100 employees or perhaps even “close their doors.” Reminder: Monarch has raised at least $220 million since its founding seven years ago. It underwent a restructuring in late 2024 in an attempt to cut costs and expand into new areas, including licensing its autonomous technology. This turnaround plan is underway, but Monarch may run out of money before it can make real progress.

The company is also facing legal problems. An Idaho dealer sued Monarch for breach of contract and breach of its warranty because the California-based startup’s tractors were “incapable of operating independently.”

Got a tip for us? Email Kirsten Korosek at kirsten.korosec@techcrunch.com Or my Signal at kkorosec.07, or email Sean O’Kane at sean.okane@techcrunch.com.

Offers!

independencethe electric vehicle subscription company he founded Scott the painterhas secured $25 million in financing to acquire about 1,250 vehicles to expand beyond Tesla’s previous fleet, the company told TechCrunch in an email. The Autonomy fleet will now include Volvo and Polestar, as well as additional Tesla options.

Bionicsa German-based startup specializing in electric vehicle charging technology, It raised 8 million euros In seed funding led by Ascend Capital Partners. Startup BW Seed Fonds, Pale Blue Dot, Vireo Ventures and Axeleo Ventures also participated.

Single point of navigationa San Francisco-based startup that has developed technology for precise location determination to within 1 to 3 centimeters, has raised $35 million in a Series C round led by Khosla Ventures. The company’s post-money valuation now stands at $230 million, according to a person familiar with the deal.

A Japanese startup company in the field of self-driving technology Turing It raised about 15.3 billion yen ($97.7 million) in equity and debt. It raised 9.77 billion yen ($62 million) in a round co-led by JIC Venture Growth Investments, a government-backed fund, and venture capital firm Global Brain Corporation. Additional investors include GMO Internet Group, Denso and other unnamed companies. Turing also obtained 5.5 billion yen in syndicated loans arranged by Mizuho Bank.

typea startup that has developed a system to separate aluminum grades with greater than 95% accuracy, has raised $20 million in equity and $25 million in debt in a round led by VXI Capital and accounts advised by T. Rowe Price, with participation from Overlay Capital and Yamaha Motor Ventures.

Notable Readings and Other Stories

Ford It has joined forces with Amazon Autos, which will allow customers to shop, finance and purchase location-based used cars. Meanwhile, Ford suffered a potential setback after another fire broke out in the building novelist Aluminum plant in Oswego, New York. The plant supplies sheet metal for Ford trucks, including the all-electric F-150 Lightning.

Google He keeps pushing Gemini into as many devices as possible, including the car. Gemini will replace Google Assistant in Android Auto, the smartphone display technology built into millions of cars, trucks and SUVs.

Another legal fight has begun in the emerging electric aviation industry. Gobi Aviation Sue Archer Aviation Due to allegations that its competitor used stolen trade secrets extracted from a former employee to interfere with its business. Read details of the lawsuit and Archer’s response here.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 CEO and Team Principal Toto Wolf He sold part of his property On the CrowdStrike team is founder and CEO George Kurtz.

Pony.ai launched a Fourth generation self-driving truck lineup It is jointly developed by Sany Truck and Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor. The company plans to deploy the trucks in 2026.

excellent The long-awaited Jeep Recon will go into production next year. My article goes beyond the specs (although those are here too) and looks at why its launch was so surprising.

Tesla It’s getting better at reporting FSD data, but…, The Verge reported.

Toyota It has increased its bet on hybrid cars in the United States with plans to invest $912 million in five factories to expand production.

Uber Eats It has partnered with a curbside delivery robot company Spacecraft technologies For food delivery in the UK starting later this year.

Volvo He canceled a five-year contract with It shinesthe latest escalation in a bitter battle between the lidar sensor company and its largest customer.

the The Washington PostArticle about The most dangerous roads in America Includes an interactive feature that lets you identify hotspots in cities across the United States.

Another thing…

I’ve got a little something for all you autopilot nerds out there.

the Automatic broadcasta podcast I co-host with Alex Roy and Ed Niedermeyer, recently recorded an interview with him Bryant Walker Smithin which we talked about how SAE levels came to be, how he hopes to improve them, and his latest paper “Autonomous driving” means self-driving (Which I shared a few weeks ago). Check out the episode here.