A Democrat just won a Texas state Senate seat that Republicans held for more than three decades in a district that Donald Trump won by 17 points just over a year ago.
Story Overview
- Taylor Rehmet, a machinist union leader running her first campaign, defeated Trump-backed Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57% to 43% in a special election runoff.
- The upset occurred in Texas State Senate District 9, where Trump won by 17 points in 2024 and where Republicans have dominated for decades.
- Wambsganss far surpassed Rehmet and received personal support from Trump, but still lost by 14 percentage points
- The two candidates will face off again in November 2026 for a full four-year term, setting up a high-stakes rematch.
When money and Trump can’t buy victory
The Republicans gave everything in this race. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick launched what observers described as a furious fundraising campaign in recent days. Trump himself posted on social media urging voters to support Wambsganss, calling her a successful entrepreneur and incredible supporter of his Make America Great Again movement. The Republican candidate’s campaign spending eclipsed her opponent’s war chest. None of that mattered. On February 1, 2026, first-time candidate Taylor Rehmet delivered one of the most shocking election results in recent Texas political history.
The district should not have been competitive. Kelly Hancock, the four-term Republican incumbent, had easily won reelection every time his name appeared on the ballot. When he resigned in March 2025 to become acting comptroller of Texas, conventional wisdom suggested that Republicans would simply slide another candidate into the seat. The first special election in November 2025 should have served as a first warning. Rehmet received 47% of the vote, coming within three percentage points of outright victory and avoiding a runoff altogether. Republican agents recognized the danger, but were unable to stop what happened next.
The Suburban Shift Republicans Can’t Ignore
Tarrant County tells the story Republicans don’t want to hear. Biden won the county by about 1,800 votes out of more than 834,000 cast in 2020. Trump won it back by 5 points in 2024. Yet District 9, significantly redder than the county as a whole, just elected a Democrat by a comfortable margin. The numbers don’t lie about what’s happening in suburban Texas. Voters who traditionally supported Republicans are falling away, and Trump’s support appears to be accelerating rather than stopping the exodus.
Patrick’s pre-election statement revealed what GOP leaders already knew but could not admit publicly. When he pleaded with Tarrant County Republicans to vote and said he was very concerned about the election, he was acknowledging vulnerability. Participation figures explain part of the problem. Fewer than 14,000 early votes and mail-in ballots were counted in the runoff, compared to nearly 39,000 in the November special election. Republican voters stayed home despite desperate pleas from their leaders and their president. It’s not apathy. It’s a rejection.
Pattern recognition for 2026
The chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Ken Martin, did not mince his words in describing the victory. He called it a warning sign for Republicans across the country and further evidence that voters under the second Trump administration are motivated to reject Republican candidates and their policies. This statement carries weight because this result fits a documented pattern. Democrats have consistently outperformed in special elections throughout the current election cycle, suggesting something systematic rather than coincidental is afoot.
The November 2026 rematch will provide crucial data on whether this is a lasting change or a unique electoral anomaly. Rehmet and Wambsganss will face no primary opposition in March, guaranteeing the same matchup for a full four-year term. Expect significantly more campaign funding to flood the district as both parties recognize the stakes. If Rehmet wins again with higher turnout and sustained Republican engagement, the implications for the Republican Party’s prospects nationally become impossible to ignore. Republicans need to diagnose why their traditional advantages have failed here before similar failures metastasize to suburban districts.
What Republicans Should Learn
The post-mortem of this loss must be brutally honest rather than politically convenient. Trump’s endorsement didn’t move the needle. Massive spending disparities did not determine the outcome. Leaders’ panic and public appeals have failed to motivate the base. Each of these failures requires serious analysis. Republicans may blame low turnout or peculiar electoral dynamics, but these explanations simply describe the symptoms rather than diagnose the disease. Conservative voters in a reliably red district chose not to participate or actively crossed party lines despite all the institutional advantages favoring the Republican candidate.
Rehmet presented himself as a working-class union leader focused on practical concerns affecting everyday families. Wambsganss has positioned herself as a conservative activist aligned with Trump. Voters chose first by 14 percentage points. Republicans need to understand what this choice says about their current message and messengers. Suburban voters appear increasingly resistant to Trump’s policies, even in districts he carried handily. Whether party leaders recognize this reality or dismiss it as a one-time aberration will likely determine how many more seats are flipped before recognizing this trend.
Sources:
Democrat wins reliable Republican seat in Texas state Senate, stunning GOP – Politico
Democrats hope to flip red Texas Senate seat in Saturday’s special election – KSAT
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