For a quarter of a century, President Vladimir Putin I faced the specter of Russia’s shrinking and aging population.
In 1999, one year ago He came to power, The number of children born in Russia has fallen to its lowest level on record. In 2005, Putin said that demographic problems should be solved by maintaining “social and economic stability.”
In 2019, he said the problem was still “haunting” the country.
More recently, he told a population conference in the Kremlin on Thursday that increasing births was “crucial” for Russia.
Putin has launched initiatives to encourage people to have more children – from free school meals for large families to awarding Soviet-style “hero mother” medals to women with 10 or more children.
“Many of our grandmothers and great-grandmothers had seven children, and even more,” Putin said in 2023. “Let us preserve and revive these wonderful traditions. Having many children and having a large family should become the norm.”
Initially, births in Russia rose as its economy boomed, from 1.21 million babies born in 1999 to 1.94 million in 2015.
But those hard-won gains are collapsing against a backdrop of financial uncertainty. war in ukraine, Youth migration and opposition to immigration.
Russia’s population fell from 147.6 million in 1990 – the year before the collapse of the Soviet Union – to 146.1 million this year, according to Russia’s Federal Statistics Service. Since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, its data has included the peninsula’s population of about 2 million, as well as births and deaths there.
The population is also significantly older. In 1990, 21.1% of them were 55 or older, according to government data. In 2024, this number was 30%.
Since its peak in 2015, the number of births has declined annually, and deaths now exceed births. There were only 1.22 million live births last year – marginally more than the low in 1999. Demographer Alexei Raksha reported that the number of children born in Russia in February 2025 was the lowest monthly figure in more than two centuries.
Russia is trying to impose new restrictions to stop the decline and adopt what it calls “traditional family values” into laws Prohibition of promoting abortion The “child-free ideology” and Ban all LGBTQ+ activities.
Russian feminist researcher Sasha Talaver said that officials believe that such values are a “magic bullet” to solve demographic problems.
In the government’s view, women may be financially independent, but they must be “very willing and motivated to do this extra work of procreation in the name of Russian patriotism and power.”
Harsh demographic history
In Russia, as in most Western countries, declining births are usually linked to economic turmoil. Young couples who live in cramped apartments, who are unable to buy their own homes or who fear for their jobs, usually have less confidence in their ability to raise a child.
But Russia is burdened by a harsh demographic history.
About 27 million Soviet citizens He died in World War IIwhich greatly reduced the male population.
As the country began to recover, the Soviet Union collapsed, and births declined again.
The number of Russian women in their 20s and early 30s is small, leaving authorities “desperate to have as many children as possible from this much smaller number of women,” said Jenny Mathers of Aberystwyth University in Wales.
Although Russia did not mention the number of soldiers killed in Ukraine, Western estimates put the deaths at hundreds of thousands. When the war started, Many young Russians moved abroad – Some for ideological reasons, such as escaping the repression of the opposition or To avoid military service.
“You have a very shrinking pool of potential fathers in a shrinking pool of potential mothers,” Mathers said. This is a particular problem for Putin, who has long linked population to national security, she said.
Some family-friendly initiatives are very popular, such as cash certificates for parents that can go towards pensions, education or a subsidized mortgage.
Others are controversial, such as one-time payments of about $1,200 for pregnant teens in some areas. Officials say these are intended to support vulnerable mothers, but critics say they encourage such pregnancies.
There are still other programs that seem mostly symbolic. Since 2022, Russia has established public holidays such as the Day of Family, Love and Fidelity in July, and the Day of Pregnant Women – celebrated on April 7 and October 7.
Last year, Russia’s fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — was 1.4, state media reported. This is well below the population replacement rate of 2.1, and slightly lower than the US number of 1.6 issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Discouraging abortion
Some regions have laws that make it illegal to “promote abortions”, while national legislation in 2024 will ban this Promoting “child-free advertising.” The wording of such initiatives is often vague, leaving them open to interpretation, but the change was enough to prompt the producers of the reality TV show “16 and Pregnant” to change the name of the show to “Mommy at 16.”
For many women, these measures make already sensitive conversations more difficult. A 29-year-old woman who has decided not to have children told The Associated Press that she sees a gynecologist at a private clinic in Moscow, rather than a state clinic, to avoid intrusive questions.
“Whether I’m planning to have kids, or I’m not planning to have kids — I don’t get asked about that at all,” she said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because she feared repercussions. It’s a “completely different story” at state-run clinics, she said.
An increasing number of laws Limiting access to abortion. While the procedure remains legal and widely available, more private clinics no longer offer abortion services. New legislation has also imposed restrictions on the sale of abortion pills, a move that also affects some emergency contraception.
Women are encouraged to go to government clinics, where waits are longer and some sites refuse to perform abortions on certain days. By the time patients complete the mandatory counseling and mandatory waiting periods of between 48 hours and a week, they risk exceeding the time frame for a legal abortion.
Abortions have declined steadily under these laws, although experts say the number of procedures is actually declining. However, there has been no corresponding increase in births, and activists believe that restricting abortion will only harm the health of women and children.
“The only thing you will gain from this is illegal abortion,” says Russian journalist and feminist Zalina Marchenkulova. “And that means more deaths: more deaths of children and more deaths of women.”
She sees the new government restrictions as oppression for the sake of oppression. “They are only there to block and obstruct any voice of freedom,” she told the AP.
Reducing immigration
Russia could increase its population by allowing more immigrants — something the Kremlin is unlikely to embrace.
Russian officials recently and stirring up anti-immigrant sentimentTracking their movements, stifling their work and impeding their children’s rights to education. Central Asians who traditionally travel to Russia for work are looking elsewhere, hoping to avoid growing discrimination and economic uncertainty.
While the war in Ukraine continues, Moscow can promise financial rewards to would-be parents, but not the stability needed to gamble on the future.
When people lack confidence about their future, it’s not a good time to have children, Mathers said, adding: “A major open war doesn’t really encourage people to think positively about the future.”
The 29-year-old, who chose not to have children, agrees.
“The happiest and healthiest child will only be born into a family with healthy, happy parents,” she said.
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