Fantasy Football Rankings: Hayden Winks’ RB Blueprint for Week 5

The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be this RB column, a WR column on Thursdays and a combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.

It’s impossible to get every ranking thoroughly early in the week, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available.

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1. Jahmyr Gibbs (at ARI) – 132.5 proj. total yards

Gibbs has 105.1 half PPR points through four weeks. That’s RB14 all-time. He’s unsurprisingly the RB1 on RB1 overall usage this season, with 20.0+ expected half PPR points every week.

2. Bijan Robinson (vs. BAL) – 122.5 proj. total yards

Bijan has scored 25+ half PPR points in 7-of-10 recent games. In 14 games with Michael Penix Jr. dating back to late 2024, Bijan is averaging 22.9 half-PPR points on 5.1 targets per game. He didn’t need to be thrown the ball on Monday Night Football because the ground game was on absolute fire. The Falcons’ OL was moving bodies, and Bijan’s effortless speed and elite cutback ability sent him to an RB5 overall finish. He’s the RB3 on RB5 usage this year while battling with Jahmyr Gibbs, Kenneth Walker III and Jonathan Taylor for the top spots in rankings each week.

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The Ravens are a solid defense, but they’ve been vulnerable to fantasy RBs so far. Tony Pollard (RB24), Javonte Williams (RB10) and Jonathan Taylor (RB8) all had games in line with their averages. Baltimore is allowing the 21st-most fantasy points per game to RBs on 100 yards per game. The Falcons are projected for 23.5 points (11th), which I believe is the highest of the year for them.

3. Jonathan Taylor (at PIT) – 108.5 proj. total yards

Taylor’s 2026 value has been nearly identical to last year’s with Daniel Jones active. His half PPR points per game are down by just 2.2, and his expected points based on his elite role are actually up 0.7 year-over-year. He has a career-low 4.1 YPC right now, for no fault of his own, but his targets per game are at a career high to counter it. The Colts’ upside won’t hit without a real downfield threat, and I’m not sure it’s going to matter for JT’s top-5 RB status. He’s the RB5 on RB7 usage this year despite already facing the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans and underrated Commanders defenses.

The Steelers have headliners across the defensive line, but they’ve been gashed by fantasy RBs so far. Bijan Robinson had his usual 27.3 half PPR points (RB7) in Week 1, followed by a long TD run to TreVeyon Henderson (RB9) in Week 2 and a career-high 6-reception game from Quinshon Judkins (RB11) last week. The Colts are projected for 21.0 points (19th) after getting a bit exposed at RT in recent outings.

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4. Kyren Williams (vs. BUF) – 94.5 proj. total yards

Williams is icing Blake Corum more in 2026 than he did down the stretch last year, particularly whenever the Rams are trailing or smell a mismatch with opposing LBs. He caught 10 balls last week while chasing points in the second half, and he’s been a trusted asset in both phases (aside from those lingering fumbles). Williams is the RB6 on RB9 usage so far, but he’s improved his totals every week. Last week’s 28.0 expected half PPR points (RB1 overall) were a career high. Dog.

The Bills and Rams combine for a 54.5-point game total. I’ve been impressed by the Bills’ DTs when they’ve been available and very underwhelmed by their back half with CB1 Christian Benford also banged up. Buffalo isn’t a defense to shy away from, even if outlier-sized DT Deone Walker is looking like a Pro Bowler next to Ed Oliver. The Bills allowed 16.9+ half PPR points to Rhamondre Stevenson (RB13), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB5) and David Montgomery (RB6) so far. Even Keaton Mitchell was the RB14 in Week 3.

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5. James Cook III (at LAR) – 89.5 proj. total yards

Cook averaged 16.0 half PPR points last year and is at 15.9 this year. Nothing has changed. He’s the RB37 in receptions per game (1.5) but more than makes up for it by averaging 17.5 carries and 105 rush YPG on the most stable offense in the NFL. He’s the RB11 on RB12 usage in 2026 as a mid- to low-end RB1 depending on the matchup.

The Bills are projected for 25.75 points (fourth) on Monday Night Football, in what easily could be the highest-scoring game of the week versus the Rams. The Rams have allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, with only Christian McCaffrey (88) eclipsing 55 total scoreless yards. But, and with all due respect, the Bills are a totally different beast than the Eagles, Broncos and Giants.

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6. Chase Brown (at MIA) – 64.5 proj. total yards

Brown is the ultimate buy-low right now. He’s faced the Jaguars, Texans, Steelers and Bucs so far. From 2025 to now, those are the first-, fourth-, sixth- and 13th-best defenses against fantasy RBs. Brown is not talented enough to break out against the top competition, which is why he’s the RB18 on RB11 usage so far. He’s held the line with 5.3 receptions per game, but Brown will have far better raw numbers for the rest of the year.

The Bengals have been first in neutral pass rate this season by a wide margin, but they should run more in Week 5 against the Dolphins based on game script and WR injury. Miami has allowed three top-five fantasy RB finishers this season already and its fourth opponent was Aaron Jones Sr., who posted 128 total yards as the RB18. Brown had 30.9 fantasy points against the Dolphins in Week 16 of last year, too. Cincy is projected for 24.75 points (sixth).

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7. Javonte Williams (vs. TB) – 92.5 proj. total yards

Williams has quietly been one of the best picks in fantasy, as the RB7 on RB6 usage overall who was often available early in Round 4. He’s the RB7 in receptions per game (3.8) while soaking up a ton of goal-line reps in this elite offense. Through four weeks, the Cowboys are top-five in points per drive since 2000.

The Buccaneers haven’t faced a serious fantasy RB and offense in a bit, with recent games against the Packers, Vikings and Browns. The only thing to care about is the Cowboys’ team total, which sits at 28.0 points (third). Everything else sorts itself out.

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8. Jaylen Warren (vs. IND)

Warren is the RB14 and RB16 in usage without Rico Dowdle, and he’s looked quite good on tape each game. The Steelers have found their best combination across the offensive line, and Aaron Rodgers has berated HC Mike McCarthy enough to find the sweet spot of the playbook, too. Dowdle said he dislocated his toe twice in Week 2 and is still waiting to work back to practice, so we can assume he’ll miss another game here. Warren is the RB11 on RB15 usage in the past two weeks.

The Steelers are projected for 23.5 points (12th) against the Colts, who have had real issues defensively this season. Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-most pass yards per game (276) and seventh-most rush yards per game (131), despite facing the Commanders QB3 and the Texans without Nico Collins this season.

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9. Derrick Henry (at ATL) – 94.5 proj. total yards

This assumes Lamar Jackson (ankle) is out with the Ravens’ team total sitting at just 20.0 points (23rd). Henry has four games without Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, and he’s passed the test with flying colors. He’s averaged 21.9 half PPR points on 24 carries per game. There’s simply not enough depth around Henry to move away from him in terms of elite total volume. The Big Dog has also been semi-involved as a receiver (RB31 receptions per game) to manage his floor, but Tyler Huntley starting behind this extremely injured interior OL is certainly playing with fire.

The Falcons defense has shown up despite missing arguably their top-three players. They’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs so far with Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard and all Packers RBs going under their seasonal averages. Alvin Kamara plunged into the end zone a few times in Week 4 but on only 58 total yards. They haven’t allowed 75 total yards to a running back this season.

10. Christian McCaffrey (at SEA) – 93.5 proj. total yards

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CMC had cramps in Australia in Week 1, and since then, he’s the RB7 on RB9 usage. He’s averaging his usual 4.0 receptions per game (RB6) and is RB3 in inside the five-yard line carries. All of the high-value touches are going his way, even if Kaelon Black is going to steal some snaps.

The 49ers are projected for 22.0 points (17th) this week despite a red-hot start because of this truly elite Seahawks defense. CMC has faced HC Mike Macdonald four times and scored 9.9, 8.7, 18.7, and 12.6 half PPR points (avg: 12.5) without a score. Seattle hasn’t allowed a back to reach 100 total yards or 12.5 half PPR points this season either.

11. TreVeyon Henderson (vs. LV)

The splits with and without Rhamondre Stevenson (knee/ankle) are staggering. Hendo has 7.1, 5.2 and 9.5 expected half PPR points this season, as the RB35 on RB44 usage. In 21 games with Rhamondre Stevenson healthy dating back to last year, Hendo is the RB44 on RB49 usage. But in three games without him, Henderson is the RB1 overall (22.7 half PPR points) on RB5 overall usage (16.5). The only backup is unproven Corey Kiner, and the Patriots don’t have receiving depth right now with Mack Hollins also injured now. If Stevenson misses after not practicing on Wednesday, it’s really time to party.

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The Patriots project for 24.5 points as home favorites to the Raiders. Speed backs like Kenneth Walker III (179 yards), Travis Etienne Jr. (70 yards) and Omarion Hampton (115) have had success against Vegas.

12. Ashton Jeanty (at NE) – 85.5 proj. total yards

Jeanty played 74% of the first three drives in Weeks 1-3, then 43% last week. It’s unclear if HC Klint Kubiak was attempting to find his hot hand or if there was another factor at play, but that was odd usage early on. By the fourth quarter, it went almost exclusively back to Jeanty when the Raiders were down multiple scores. It’s very clear that Jeanty isn’t just their best pass-catching back but he’s someone Kubiak wants to design touches for in the pass game. He’s the RB5 in receptions per game (4.8) and some of them are further down the field. It’s a big boost to his fantasy value.

That said, Jeanty’s rushing numbers and overall efficiency have been middling. He’s turned RB3 overall usage into RB10 production, and his -4.4 fantasy points over expectation are the worst in the league per my model. He’s below average in missed tackles forced and explosives, too. It’s partially an OL issue, but the fear is that he doesn’t have enough start-stop and burst to be one of the best backs in the game. This is as much of a role change that he can afford to remain a weekly top-10 back in rankings. His snaps: 74%, 81%, 84% –> 67%.

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The Patriots are a tough matchup for the traveling Raiders. When healthy, they have a CB1 to cover Brock Bowers and star DTs to help stuff the run. Since last year, New England is the seventh-best fantasy RB defense when adjusting for schedule. RBs average -0.7 half PPR points versus their average. They held James Cook III to an RB16 finish last week and all RBs against them this year have been below 90 total yards. The Raiders have a 21.0-point team total (20th).

13. D’Andre Swift (at GB) – 79.5 proj. total yards

Swift was benched after his third-quarter fumble while Kyle Monangai ran the hot hand. It happens, but no, I don’t think this holds after Swift has balled out this season following his September multi-year contract extension. The Bears are splitting up a league-leading 30.8 expected half PPR points between these two, and that upside needs to be respected at all times, even coming off duds. Swift is the RB12 on RB8 usage this season.

A matchup with the Packers is a solid one. The Bears project for 24.25 points (10th) with Tyson Bagent expected back under center. Green Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs this season on 139 rushing yards per game (fifth). Bijan Robinson dropped a clean 34.3 half PPR points in Week 3, while Breece Hall (RB13) and Jordan Mason (RB20) had productive days earlier. Swift had three games against them late last year, posting 16.2, 8.0 and 9.7 half PPR points in Weeks 19, 16 and 14.

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14. Aaron Jones Sr. (at NO) – 95.5 proj. total yards

Jones has been a top-24 RB in every week, including RB18, RB15 and RB18 finishes in the most recent weeks as the Vikings’ bellcow. Only 1 of 20 carries last week went for a negative, and Minnesota’s offense is 29th in neutral pass rate right now. It’s pretty much the Jones Show with Jordan Mason (IR) and potentially Justin Jefferson (ankle) out again. The hard part is squaring how uncomfortable the offense has been in general and with the new loss of LG Donovan Jackson. Jones’ seasonal average of being the RB20 on RB16 usage seems like a fair starting point.

The Saints are on a short week after getting shredded by the Falcons’ RB duo on Monday Night Football. They had 19 missed tackles in that one, and it wasn’t just that game. They’ve allowed six RBs to reach 10+ half PPR points in four games. That’s hard to do. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4), Derrick Henry (RB7), Mike Washington Jr. (RB18), Ashton Jeanty (RB20), Bijan Robinson (RB5) and Brian Robinson Jr. (RB8) have all been top-20 backs. It’s a good spot to catch them. Minnesota projects for 22.0 points (16th).

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15. Emanuel Wilson (vs. SF) – 78.5 proj. total yards

Wilson has handled 64% of the runs without Jadarian Price on the field this season, while Wilson and George Holani have split passing duties. Wilson caught three passes last week, including a screen TD and Holani had three pretty bad pass-protection mistakes. The “thunder” was the RB6 on RB15 usage last week. We should feel more confident than ever that Wilson will get a huge chunk of the Seahawks RB value for the next month, and they have 24.8 expected half PPR points per game (fourth) up for grabs based on the first four weeks:

The Week 5 matchup is a neutral one. The 49ers have so many defensive linemen out, including Nick Bosa, to trust to stop the run. They’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to RBs this year, including top-20 finishes from RJ Harvey (RB20), Jeremiyah Love (RB7), De’Von Achane (RB16) and Kyren Williams (RB16). Backs have been catching passes in the flats often in this matchup, partially when the game is scoreboard-driven. That’s not Wilson’s specialty but he caught the ball cleanly last week. Seattle has a 24.5-point team total (ninth) as slight home favorites.

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16. Braelon Allen (vs. CLE) – 91.5 proj. total yards

The Jets had 32 plays in Week 4. That’s the fourth-fewest in NFL history. Yikes!!! The good news is Allen played 30-of-32 snaps without Breece Hall. His RB28 expected half PPR points (10.3), 14 carries and two receptions are essentially his floor without Hall. The Jets RB room has averaged 17.7 expected half PPR points this year, and 90% of that is a baseline of 15.0-16.0 fantasy points. It’s very easy to make the math work as a fantasy RB2.

The matchup with the Browns is just fine. The Browns won’t have 2025 fifth-overall pick DT Mason Graham, nor do they have an offense that’s capable of dramatically winning the time of possession battle like the Bears did last week. RB starters against the Browns have cleared 88 total yards in all four outings, and they haven’t been superstar talents: Bhayshul Tuten (RB25), Bucky Irving (RB15), Chuba Hubbard (RB12) and Jaylen Warren (RB21). Those rankings would be better if any of them had scored a touchdown. The Jets have a 21.0-point team total (21st).

17. Bhayshul Tuten (vs. PHI) – 80.5 proj. total yards

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Tuten has been a broken-tackle machine, and it’s translated to RB2 value, even if he’s not getting a ton of high-value touches. He’s the RB33 in receptions per game (1.8), and thumping RB2 Chris Rodriguez Jr. is mixing in for scores while a segmented pass-protector RB3 steals late downs. The good news is the Jaguars are excellent, and HC Liam Coen is an RB whisperer, so high-end efficiency is part of the value. Tuten is the RB16 on RB25 usage this year.

The Eagles defense is extremely banged up. Star DT Jalen Carter (wrist) isn’t himself, and LB Zack Baun (concussion), SCB Cooper DeJean (knee), CB1 Quinyon Mitchell (knee), EDGE2 Jonathan Greenard (ankle) and others are questionable to play. Philly has allowed 122 rushing YPG (10th most) this season, including a monster all-around game from Kyren Williams just last week. It’s still a mediocre matchup, but it’s not one to hide from like it was in the past. Jacksonville has a 24.75-point team total (sixth).

18. Quinshon Judkins (at NYJ) – 75.5 proj. total yards

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Judkins set career highs in expected half PPR points (22.9, RB4), targets (seven) and receptions (six) in Week 4 without Dylan Sampson. He added his usual 17 carries for 53 yards on the ground, but if this new receiving volume sticks under new HC Todd Monken’s No. 2 neutral pass rate offense, then we may be underrating his value. He hasn’t hit many explosives on the ground behind this gelling offensive line, but he is a capable runner who should be getting his feet back from under him after a gruesome ankle injury last year. Deshaun Watson scrambling for a first down and playing more composed has helped at the margins, too. Judkins is the RB24 on RB13 usage this season, unfortunately finishing below his expectation in seven straight games dating back to last year.

The Jets have allowed the most fantasy points to RBs when adjusting for opponent. Teams give their RBs 3.6 more carries per game against the Jets than their season average, and the Jets don’t have the front seven to stop it. They’ve allowed 124 rush YPG, including 232 last week to the Bears and 164 to Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 3. If there’s a game for Judkins to pop off on the ground, it’s this one. The Browns are projected for just 18.5 points, though, so keep expectations in check.

19. Jeremiyah Love (vs. DET) – 63.5 proj. total yards

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Love injured his right ankle in the beginning of the fourth quarter. He was frustrated after the play and then was shaking it out pre-snap on the following play before limping to the sideline for his final play of the game. It’s his “other” ankle, and he didn’t look like himself earlier in the game either. A game off wouldn’t be the worst idea. Make sure Tyler Allgeier is on your bench just in case.

20. Kyle Monangai (at GB) – 51.5 proj. total yards

Monangai rode the hot hand to an RB4 on RB2 overall finish last week, following a third-quarter D’Andre Swift fumble. It’s the latest reminder of the random spike-week potential from Monangai when he gets downhill against a defense that doesn’t have a soul. The warning would be that he rarely goes back-to-back with these types of games, so we have a whack-a-mole situation on our hands. Evening things out from Week 5 last year, Monangai is the RB27 on RB30 usage, while Swift is the RB12 on RB16 usage.

The Packers have been pretty bad against fantasy RBs, though! They’ve allowed the second-most points to RBs this year on 139 rushing YPG (fifth). If we include late last season without Micah Parsons, the Packers have allowed a league-leading 131 rushing YPG with the fifth-worst red zone defense. Chicago has a 24.25-point team total (10th).

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21. Cam Skattebo (at WAS) – 76.5 proj. total yards

Update: Skattebo was wearing a non-contact jersey at practice on Wednesday.

On the season, Skattebo is the RB26 on RB19 usage. He is feeling more pressure from Najee Harris than we’d like. His 49% route share from last week should lead to more targets moving forward, but he was the RB35 on RB31 usage in Week 4.

At one point, the Giants scored a TD (Theo Johnson) with Skattebo on the field, then they successfully ran in the 2-point conversion with subbed-in Harris. That was the lone goal-line opportunity of the game. Harris did brutally fumble the ball early in the fourth quarter, however, and was benched for the rest of the game. Harris also ran the ball himself on 10-of-12 snaps. Wild stuff here.

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This matchup is a sneaky tough one under new DC Daronte Jones. The Commanders have allowed the 28th-most fantasy points to RBs, but that’s fourth best when adjusting for opponent. They held a healthy Saquon Barkley to 8.5 half PPR points and Javonte Williams to just 6.5 earlier this season. With the Giants projected for 20.0 points (24th), Skattebo is more of an upside FLEX than a bankable RB2.

22. David Montgomery (at TEN) – 49.5 proj. total yards

Montgomery had a couple of nice runs in Week 1, but he’s been a total bust since then and is one of the least productive RBs on a per-touch basis behind a laughably bad OL. Montgomery’s snap lead is also closing with Woody Marks playing the second drive of the game for the first time last week. It used to be Montgomery for the first two drives, then a drive-by-drive rotation. Montgomery is the RB23 on RB31 usage if we smooth out things across the season but I don’t see the explosives or usage rebounding towards fantasy RB2 value. That said, having Nico Collins back in the mix lifts the offense’s red-zone and burn-out-the-clock in the fourth quarter opportunities.

Houston has a 22.5-point team total (15th) against the 0-4 Titans as 7.5-point favorites. There are DL/OL mismatches to worry about, but the game script and projected points are in a clean spot for Montgomery to have a relative rebound this week. Of course, we all made that argument last week against the Cowboys, who held Montgomery to 24 scoreless yards on 10 carries.

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23. Omarion Hampton (vs. DEN) – 37.5 proj. total yards

It’s a total mess for Hampton. He’s only the RB22 on RB24 usage this season, with the Chargers officially bottoming out. They potentially won’t have LT Rashawn Slater (IR), RT Joe Alt and WR Ladd McConkey. Remember, it can always get worse.

The Chargers are also increasing Keaton Mitchell’s and Kimani Vidal’s involvement at Hampton’s expense. Hampton is the RB49 in receptions per game (1.0) because he’s not trusted in protection, nor is he the smoothest in the flats. What he can still do is soak up most of the goal-line scores. He did that last week to save his fantasy day (RB23 on RB29 usage).

All that said, the Broncos are missing a lot of key players (CB1 Patrick Surtain II, CB2 Riley Moss, EDGE2 Jonathan Cooper and offseason exits at DT), and they have been exposed at LB this season. Denver has allowed 143 rushing YPG (fourth most) and all four starting RBs to finish as top-20 fantasy backs. Hampton could sneak in a fine-enough outing here, but the Chargers are projected for just 19.5 points (25th).

24. RJ Harvey (at LAC) – 49.5 proj. total yards

J.K. Dobbins started, but Harvey and Tyler Badie combined for the first four carries in Week 4. Harvey played more early-down snaps than Dobbins, while Badie led the team in late-down snaps as the best protecting option. We didn’t get updated goal-line usage, but it’s possible Harvey is going to get more looks down there with Dobbins struggling. In the meantime, Harvey’s pass-catching usage is enough for RB3 value, especially in PPR. He’s the RB1 overall with 6.7 receptions per game, including his bonkers 10-grab game last week. Bo Nix’s quick checkdown offense is helping Harvey, even if it’s hurting the team. Harvey is the RB28 on RB33 usage this year.

25. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (vs. NYG) – 67.5 proj. total yards

The Commanders used four RBs in Week 4 without Rachaad White. Austin Ekeler split early-down snaps with Bill, while Kaytron Allen and Craig Reynolds also sprinkled in. It’s all over the place in this backfield because Croskey-Merritt hasn’t fully separated from the back on tape. I thought Ekeler looked better than expected!

Bill is the RB36 on RB30 usage this season and busted as the RB42 on RB27 usage last week. Bill has to score TDs to pay off because he’s averaging just 1.3 receptions per game. To be fair, JCM did play more late downs last week than normal without White. But that only helps on the margins.

The Commanders project for 23.5 points with Jayden Daniels (elbow) due back. They are back at home after traveling back from London against the Giants, who won’t have EDGE Brian Burns (ACL), of course. They allowed a long score from Tyler Allgeier last week, and starting RBs cleared 72 total yards in three straight games before that. It’s a nice matchup in general.

26. Alvin Kamara (vs. MIN)

In his first game without Travis Etienne, Kamara had a season-high 13.9 expected half PPR points (RB18) on just seven carries while staying in the same three-back committee. Kamara converted a couple of goal-line carries and had five receptions while chasing points. He’s not playing on late downs still, and Kendre Miller, who had a first-quarter fumble, is playing about a third of the early-down snaps at Kamara’s expense. It’s a fine role, not a bankable one.

The Saints’ wild play volume is bankable at least. Kamara should have 3+ receptions based on Tyler Shough’s league-leading dropbacks per game as a FLEX option, but it’s hard to trust this run game without LT Kelvin Banks (ankle, IR). The Saints’ RB room is averaging 26.3 expected half PPR points (eighth) and Kamara is live for at least half of them for the short term.

This week’s matchup is a real test. The Vikings are second-best against fantasy RBs after adjusting for schedule, and opposing RBs are rushing less and receiving less than normal against them. The Saints are only projected for 20.5 points (22nd) this week.

27. Bucky Irving (at DAL) – 68.5 proj. total yards

Irving took a big hit to his fantasy value last week. His 8.5 expected half PPR points (RB33) were his fewest since 2024 Week 14. The Bucs offense is a total mess on tape, even across the OL, and Irving watched Sean Tucker and Kenny Gainwell score red-zone touchdowns. Tucker played three snaps, and all three of them were with one yard to go, with Irving on the field for the previous plays. Tucker is far bigger than Irving and stole Irving’s goal-line TDs last year, so it’s something to take seriously.

Gainwell also played the 2-minute drill and will mix in more in pure catch-up mode. Irving has played 81% of the first-quarter snaps compared to 55% of the fourth-quarter snaps this year with the Bucs sitting at 0-4. Irving still had 16 carries last week and will be in the mix for receptions (3.3 per game), but the margins are real tight. He’s the RB25 on RB22 usage through the quarter mark with 6.8- and 6.1-point outings in half PPR, respectively, most recently.

The Bucs are projected for 19.5 points (26th) with an undrafted free agent QB making his second start ever on a short week on the road. The Cowboys’ run defense is supposedly their strength with headliners at DT, though we haven’t seen that aside from shutting down the inept Texans run game.

28. Will Shipley (at JAX)

Update: The Eagles got a great return (2028 second) by trading away struggling LG Cam Jurgens on Wednesday. Philadelphia has very inexperienced players at LG, C and RT right now without OL coach Jeff Stoutland there. It’ll be messy, just as it was with Jurgens playing out of position coming off back surgery.

Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Tank Bigsby (hernia, IR) are out, leaving Shipley competing with practice squaders Dameon Pierce, Carson Steele and Jayden Blue. Shipley has been around since 2024 as a fourth-rounder who handled huge workloads at Clemson. It’d be a total shock if he didn’t comfortably lead the backfield in carries and pass-game snaps in the short term. He was already mixing in with both backs healthy in front of him.

The problem is the Eagles are next to the Browns, Dolphins and Titans on my Week 5 charts. Philly has a 17.75-point team total (29th), and they have an NFL-high 3-and-out rate in a largely broken offense. They’re leading the NFL in unblocked pressure rate with a new OC, moving parts across the OL and a QB who hasn’t set protections at any point in his career. It’s a bad OL right now, so we’re playing with fire against a loaded Jaguars DL. Jacksonville is allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (74.3) right now. Shipley is a trap with only the most desperate willing to take on the risk.

29. Ollie Gordon II (vs. CIN) – 65.5 proj. total yards

The Dolphins started Jaylen Wright and gave him a couple of carries off the top, but Gordon played 60% of the snaps after that first drive, including starting the second half. Gordon finished with 7.6 expected half PPR points (RB36) on nine carries and two receptions. He made the most of his opportunities with two largely untouched runs to the left side for explosives, including one score. I can’t say Gordon did anything overly impressive on tape even if the box score shows 100 rushing yards, so don’t be surprised if this backfield is still up for grabs.

The Dolphins project for 18.0 points (28th) despite being at home against an inconsistent Bengals defense. Cincy has been more stout against the run (25th most YPG) with DT Dexter Lawrence than the pass (seventh most YPG), and game script should mean the Dolphins are fairly limited with their available carries here. I think Gordon’s 65.5 total yards projection in the betting markets is way off base and have taken the under myself.

30. Tyler Allgeier (vs. DET) – 44.5 proj. total yards

Allgeier had a 22-yard stiff-arm touchdown and is playing in the 2-minute drills as a clear change-of-pace rusher behind Jeremiyah Love. He’s hovered between 4.0 and 8.1 expected half PPR points in his last three games, but it looked like Love picked up a new ankle injury to his “other ankle” early in the fourth quarter. It’s possible Allgeier is set up for a bigger workload in an amazing matchup here. Make sure he’s rostered right now.

31. Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. BAL) – 35.5 proj. total yards

Shoutout to our friends with the 1.01 pick who selected Brian Robinson Jr. by accident. There have been far worse picks in the first couple rounds!!!

The Falcons are using “B-Rob” before garbage time. He’s getting multiple runs in a row in the first half of games to spell Bijan, and that obviously can include goal-line work if he was out there for the previous plays. It’s been enough to be the RB19 on RB40 usage this month. He’s had 5.9 and 12.7 expected points in these Michael Penix Jr. starts, making him similar to Blake Corum or Chris Rodriguez Jr. as a deep-league RB3 option. He should be nearly 100% rostered as one of the most obvious insurance plans.

32. Keaton Mitchell (vs. DEN) – 30.5 proj. total yards

Mitchell’s value is climbing. He’s gone from 3.5 expected half PPR points in Week 2 up to 9.8 and 11.0 in the most recent games, respectively. The Chargers are losing some faith in Omarion Hampton, and Mitchell’s pass-game role becomes more valuable as the defense and Ladd McConkey’s foot disintegrate. Mitchell caught five passes last week and is the RB26 in receptions per game (2.3) throughout the year. He had a goal-line sweep TD this year as a bonus, but the Chargers are going to really struggle moving the ball if LT Rashawn Slater (IR) and RT Joe Alt can’t play.

The Broncos are weakest at LB, however, and they are going to be missing both of their starting outside CBs. If there’s a time to catch Denver slipping on defense, it’s right now. These are two injured units facing off, and Mitchell is in the OC Mike McDaniel trust tree, for whatever that is worth. Kyren Williams was spammed targets in Week 3 and RB rooms against Denver are seeing 1.2 more targets than their season average, if the Chargers are still paying attention. It’s hard to tell. Los Angeles has a lowly 19.5-point team total (25th).

33. Tony Pollard (vs. HOU) – 57.5 proj. total yards

I was distracted by RT JC Latham playing like a total dawg when watching the forgettable Pollard film. The Titans OL is a bit better than expected, yet the QB play has been questionable enough to limit Pollard to RB31 half PPR points per game on RB14 usage. Last week’s 21.8 expected points were a clear season high, thanks to four total goal-line opportunities. Tyjae Spears has barely run the ball but is subbing in for some obvious passing situations. Pollard is a floorless FLEX option with only 2.0 receptions per game (RB29) and a guaranteed bottom-end team total.

The Texans aren’t quite the same right now with some struggling LB and DT play, but they are still only allowing 84 rush YPG (fourth best) despite facing James Cook III, Chase Brown, Jonathan Taylor and Javonte Williams. The first three finished outside the top-20 before Williams found the end zone three times last week … after CeeDee Lamb brought them to the red zone. There’s nothing else to say but this matchup stinks out loud. Tennessee has a 15.5-point team total. In 12 games with the Titans scoring under 20 points, Pollard is averaging 7.6 half PPR points with a high of 12.0.

34. Woody Marks (at TEN)

35. J.K. Dobbins (at LAC) – 61.5 proj. total yards

Dobbins played fewer early-down snaps than RJ Harvey last week, and he’s averaging 0.8 receptions per game with Tyler Badie soaking up the most late-down snaps. He can’t be started until proven otherwise, and there’s not a real ceiling to chase on our fantasy benches. If you want to be aggressive for a pure insurance option like Kaelon Black or Tyler Allgeier, then I totally understand dropping Dobbins in shallower leagues. Dobbins is the RB48 on RB36 usage even without Jonah Coleman (IR) around.

36. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (vs. PHI) – 26.5 proj. total yards

37. MarShawn Lloyd (vs. CHI)

38. Mike Washington Jr. (at NE) – 16.5 proj. total yards

39. Blake Corum (vs. BUF) – 31.5 proj. total yards

40. Kaleb Johnson (vs. CHI)

41. Kendre Miller (vs. MIN)

42. George Holani (vs. SF) – 35.5 proj. total yards

43. Jaylen Wright (vs. CIN) – 14.5 proj. total yards

44. Kenny Gainwell (at DAL) – 26.5 proj. total yards