Fantasy football analyst Hayden Winks reveals his WR2 rankings and analysis for Week 1. He’ll continue to update his rankings for every position throughout the week.
13. Drake London (at PIT) – 65.5 proj. receiving yards
London was the WR5 on WR5 usage from 2024 through Week 11 of 2025, when he went down with a PCL injury. Only Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase had a higher target share (29.6%) over that span, and the Falcons only added depth in the skill group this offseason in third-round slot Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus.
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Unfortunately, the QB play hasn’t really improved with Tua Tagovailoa playing so poorly this offseason that he was only awarded the starting nod mere days before the season after Michael Penix Jr. (ACL) wasn’t going to make it in time. There is also a new coaching staff, and last year’s OC Zac Robinson just about did everything right for London’s box scores. We can only hope London gets as much slot work as he did last year.
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The good news is the Steelers have turned into a bit of a pass funnel. Last year’s unit was third-worst in pass yards allowed and 18th in rush yards allowed. CB1 Joey Porter is an above-average top option and slot CB Jalen Ramsey is still a tough out, even if he’s a step slower. Atlanta only projects for 19.5 points this week.
14. Garrett Wilson (at TEN) – 61.5 proj. receiving yards
This tweet summarizes just how big the Geno Smith addition should be over Justin Fields, Brady Cook and the rest of the poor QBs that Wilson has had to grind his teeth over:
We’ll see if new OC Frank Reich can avoid losing his job midseason for about the fourth straight time, but it shouldn’t be hard to get Wilson the ball with a real, experienced QB.
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The Titans reworked their lowly defense under HC Robert Saleh this offseason. They overpaid, but they did add Alontae Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott at CB while improving their DL. They are absolutely still down one quality third CB, however, and it’s the first action this unit has had together. It’s a good spot for Wilson, all things considered.
Wilson is still WR20 in the betting markets because the Jets are only projected for 19.0 points on the road. That’s the third lowest.
15. Zay Flowers (at IND) – 64.5 proj. receiving yards
Over the past two seasons when Lamar Jackson has over five passes in a game, Flowers is the WR13 in yards and the WR47 in touchdowns per game. His target share in the red zone is 15.7% versus 27.5% outside of the red zone. Will new OC Declan Doyle figure out a way to get him more involved down there, or is this going to be another capped WR2 season from the fully in-prime top target?
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The Ravens have the sixth-best team total of Week 1 (26.5 points) against a Colts defense that was picked apart last year. They were third worst against fantasy WRs and allowed the second-most passing yards per game. CB1 Sauce Gardner is returning from an Achilles tear and slot Justin Walley is making his NFL debut coming off an ACL tear. It’s a good spot in a domed environment.
16. Tetairoa McMillan (vs. CHI) – 58.5 proj. receiving yards
McMillan is definitely very good. That was clear on tape and with his WR24 per-game finish as a rookie. Typically, second-year receivers get better and there’s no reason to believe that won’t happen with the Panthers starting skill group similar to how things looked last year.
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The matchup is exciting with Chicago missing S Coby Bryant and SCB Kyler Gordon right now. Their pass rush is still lackluster, though camp reports suggest CB1 Jaylon Johnson is feeling back to himself after a disappointing 2025 season. Johnson being good or bad this season will ultimately determine if Chicago is anywhere near as bad as they were last year against fantasy WRs (second worst). I’d guess they are still one to target, yet improved with first-round S Dillon Thieneman involved.
McMillan will be forced into plenty of targets if the Bears offense is as good as they hope. Carolina is a 3.0-point dog on the road with a 22.25-point team total.
More rankings and analysis from Hayden Winks
17. Ladd McConkey (vs. ARI) – 54.5 proj. receiving yards
A WR14-finish in his rookie season is what we’re aiming for, despite a rug-pulled WR39 per-game sophomore season. The scheme will be more quick-hitting and more play-action heavy under new OC Mike McDaniel, and that fits McConkey’s quickness. The Chargers will also have fewer eligibles in the route given McDaniel’s history of using a FB and multiple TE sets, which makes it easier to earn targets for the WRs on the field. Hopefully, McConkey isn’t subbed out too often for the better blocker, WR3 Tre’ Harris, but even if that happens, there is still a huge weekly ceiling to chase.
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The Cardinals defense will be better in 2026 with better health, but they were 18th against fantasy WRs last season. McConkey will see some of CB1 Will Johnson but mostly catch Garrett Williams and Denzel Burke as the flanker and slot. It’s the best matchup in the secondary.
With the Chargers projected for a league-high 28.25 points this week, McConkey is an upside WR2.
18. Jaylen Waddle (at KC) – 53.5 proj. receiving yards
This will hopefully be the lowest he’s ranked all year. Bo Nix led all QBs in dropbacks last year, and over the past two seasons, the Broncos are leading in screens. Those gimme looks will pivot from Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin over to Waddle, who should have the best usage of his NFL career. His explosives will come on crossing routes and posts off of play action. Everything seems to be aligning.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
The matchup is just difficult. The Chiefs play everyone tight, and they have sixth-overall pick CB1 Mansoor Delane to track Waddle. If it’s not him, it’ll be underrated CB2 Nohl Williams or veteran slot La’Jarius Sneed. It’s a solid group, and Kansas City has more horses up front it. A repeat of last year’s third-most difficult defense against fantasy WRs when adjusting for schedule would not be surprising.
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The Broncos project for just 20.5 points on the road. Waddle’s projected 8.5 targets by the betting markets will hopefully lead to more than 53.5 projected receiving yards. That feels light to me.
19. Malik Nabers (vs. DAL) – 60.5 proj. receiving yards
After releasing Darius Slayton, the Giants only have Malachi Fields, Darnell Mooney and Odell Beckham Jr. on the active roster behind Nabers, who practiced in full on Wednesday. He’s playing in Week 1 as expected. Nabers likely won’t be fully himself for a bit, but 85% Nabers is still a dangerous player and reports out of camp were generally positive as he finished up rehab.
The Cowboys were the worst fantasy WR defense by a wide margin last year. It was a pathetic 39.3 fantasy points per game allowed. That won’t happen again with a better front seven, first-round S Caleb Downs, veteran S Jalen Thompson and CB2 Cobie Durant in the mix now, but CB1 DaRon Bland is very boom-bust. It’s still a favorable matchup, as the Cowboys’ run game looks better than their pass coverage on paper.
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The Giants are projected for more points than expected at 22.75 as slight home dogs. It’s a good spot for Nabers to see his usual eight+ targets. The betting markets have him listed at 60.5 yards. That’s a real discount to his career 77.6 receiving yard average. That’s fair.
20. Jameson Williams (vs. NO) – 57.5 proj. receiving yards
There are real splits with Sam LaPorta available. Williams has an 18% target share, 10.5 half-PPR points, 8.4 expected half-PPR points and 55 YPG in 24 games with LaPorta over the past two seasons. His average depth of target climbs from 11.0 to 13.0, as LaPorta runs more intermediate crossers while Williams stretches the field.
But will that continue? The Lions secondary is in such bad shape right now that everyone could get home in a high-scoring affair. There’s also the loss of David Montgomery, who allowed the Lions to be more balanced. I could see more dropbacks out of Detroit, and Jared Goff has already finished second in passing yards in three straight seasons to date.
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The Saints’ No. 1 neutral pace offense comes to Detroit, and there should be as many points and plays as any game this week. The Lions are narrowly second in projected points. Saints DC Brandon Staley has my respect, and his entire bit is preventing the explosive play with more deep safeties. It’ll be more difficult for Jamo to get home against that style, but let’s not nitpick here. He’ll face off with fellow Tide, CB1 Kool-Aid McKinstry, in isolated matchups.
21. Parker Washington (vs. CLE) – 53.5 proj. receiving yards
Washington’s first game as a near full-time player was in Week 7. From that point on, he was PPR’s WR18 on WR15 usage and a 21% target share (WR21). That was a full tier above Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
This offseason has been all Washington, too. Beat reporters project him as the top target, and both Trevor Lawrence and HC Liam Coen have spoke glowingly about him. If Travis Hunter plays any WR, it’ll come at the expense of Meyers and BTJ most likely, as Washington can play inside or out.
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The Browns matchup is far easier without Myles Garrett, though it’s still an average to good defense with solid players at all levels. Washington is likely to avoid CB1 Denzel Ward, who will see more BTJ. CB2 Tyson Campbell is a boom-bust outside option and slot CB Myles Harden is unproven. The Jaguars are ninth in projected points (24.5).
22. Emeka Egbuka (at CIN) – 54.5 proj. receiving yards
Egbuka’s rookie season will be remembered for his WR9 start through Week 11, and then a rug-pull WR64 finishing from Week 12-18. There are splits to get to that can explain some of that. Like Baker Mayfield’s shoulder injury (fixed), Egbuka’s hamstring injury (fixed) and Mike Evans’ target competition (fixed).
The upside is very clear with new OC Zac Robinson’s history with high-volume inside-out receivers. Cooper Kupp won the triple crown when Robinson was on the Rams’ staff. Then Drake London was kicked inside far more than before when he was the WR5 on a per-game basis in a very mediocre offense. Egbuka has traits somewhere between those type of receivers and always projected for a slot/flanker role. He played X receiver in a pinch last year.
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The Bengals have a great CB1 in DJ Turner, but these two won’t face off every snap because of how much Egbuka will move around. There’s a dropoff to CB2 Dax Hill and slot Jalen Davis, so it’s a positive matchup all things considered, as the returning starting LB group was one of the worst I’ve ever seen.
23. Davante Adams (vs. SF) – 52.5 proj. receiving yards
Adams had the most ridiculous red-zone WR season of 2025. He led with 0.76 touchdowns per game inside the 20-yard line on a 27% target share. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown and Drake London came close to matching. Outside of the red zone, Adams was a deep threat on an 18% target share, 0% screen share and 15.6 average depth of target. It’s a volatile role week over week, especially if the Rams are scoring ~one fewer TD per game this season.
The Rams project for 26.0 points (fourth) this week in Australia, and the 49ers defense is limping around with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and others returning from injury. They just lost a key DT and still don’t have 2025 first-round DE Mykel Williams. It’s a pretty solid matchup in general. The 49ers will be better than fourth-worst against fantasy WRs like they were in 2025, but it’s still a matchup to chase.
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Adams has a solid 9.3 half-PPR point projection and 51.5 receiving yards in the betting markets as a startable WR3. That’s discounting him a ton from his top-10 fantasy WR season last year.
24. Rashee Rice (vs. DEN) – 61.5 proj. receiving yards
Rice has been a top-five fantasy WR when fully healthy, but the offense seems set to change with Kenneth Walker III in house and Patrick Mahomes coming off a torn ACL. Rice was also visibly working his way back into shape after a second clean-up surgery on his knee happened the week before he spent a month in actual jail.
Rice has also struggled against the Broncos great secondary in three career games; 6-38-0, 4-56-0 and 4-72-0. They led the NFL in man coverage last season, and Rice has been one of the worst receivers against man in the NFL. That’s not an exaggeration.
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The Chiefs only project for 23.0 points (14th). The betting markets still love Rice as a volume play, giving him 8.5 targets. He’s better in full PPR.
25. Christian Watson (at MIN) – 55.5 proj. receiving yards
Watson had torn ACL surgery and returned to be half-PPR’s WR17 per game all in the span of the same calendar year. That can only happen as one of the most athletic players in the NFL. His tape improved, too. He ran more quick outs and had a ton of success with them, giving him a little better floor than his younger self.
This season will be his best yet. The Packers only have three WRs worth getting on the field, so he’ll be a full-time player for the first time. Without Josh Jacobs, they’ll likely pass more and play with more pace, something they were talking about this offseason even before Jacobs went on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. That’s great news for the viability of all Packers’ skill players.
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This matchup was difficult last season with better defenders, but the Vikings defense looks more hollowed out this season. Their starting CB room is underwhelming, and the Packers should be more equipped for the unusual DC Brian Flores defense, especially with an entire offseason to prepare. I’m rounding up on Green Bay in a potential high-scoring game without Micah Parsons.
26. Rome Odunze (at CAR) – 43.5 proj. receiving yards
We’ll learn more later in the week, but he opened as a limited participant with a calf injury.
27. Luther Burden III (at CAR) – 56.5 proj. receiving yards
We’ll learn more later in the week with Rome Odunze (calf) limited in practice.
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28. Mike Evans (at LAR) – 49.5 proj. receiving yards
Evans claims his training camp injuries were unserious and more just veteran days off. I kinda believe him, as a 33-year-old pro’s pro. The 49ers absolutely need him this year, and the Shanahan offense is at its best with an X-receiver like him. We might not get a full season out of him, but the numbers, when healthy, should be pretty good.
The matchup will be a challenge, of course. Aaron Donald didn’t travel to Australia, but Myles Garrett, CB1 Trent McDuffie, CB2 Jaylen Watson and the rest of this potentially elite defense did. Last year, the Rams had lowlights at CB, but they are loaded now, with fantastic coaches on top.
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The 49ers are projected for 22.5 points, an unusually low number for them. The betting markets are a bit spooked on Evans’ volume, only projecting him for 5.5 targets. That feels a hair low to me. He’s a boom-bust WR3 as we wait to see if The Strib Club opens earlier than expected.
29. DK Metcalf (vs. ATL) – 48.5 proj. receiving yards
Metcalf knows he needs to spread conspiracy theories to get the rock from Aaron Rodgers. He was the WR27 on WR34 usage in half PPR last season in a totally different offense. That was a more balanced offense, while new HC Mike McCarthy typically calls a more 3-WR set, pass-heavy offense. At the same time, Michael Pittman Jr. and second-round WR Germie Bernard will be better competition than he had last year. Let’s call it a wash for now.
The matchups is a fairly good one. The Falcons won’t have either of their 2025 first-round edge rushers, and they don’t have any depth along the DL. They do have CB1 A.J. Terrell and S Jessie Bates to match up with Metcalf, but Rodgers should have time to operate. The Falcons were 10th-worst against fantasy WRs last year. It’s possible the Steelers aren’t projected for 23.0 points often this year, like they are in Week 1.
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30. DJ Moore (at HOU) – 47.5 proj. receiving yards
Moore was not good last year. He seem disengaged, but the Bills extending his contract after the trade while also playing on a Super Bowl caliber team should have him motivated. The Bills likely pass more this season with Joe Brady promoted to head coach, and Moore can be a real threat down field and in the scramble drill with Josh Allen. Moore has plenty of short-yardage competition with Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir and James Cook III, so his weekly volatility could be real.
The matchup is as tough as it gets. The Texans were fourth-best against fantasy WRs last year, and CB1 Derek Stingley will be all over Moore this week. Buffalo’s 23.0-point team total could be the lowest of the year, and even then, Moore is projected for 46.5 yards by the betting markets. He’s more of a WR3 candidate than FLEX starter.
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31. Quentin Johnston (vs. ARI) – 43.5 proj. receiving yards
Johnston isn’t perfect, but he was still the WR23 on WR33 usage last year. He ran a little hot on TDs to get there (9% TD rate), though that’s what we should expect with Justin Herbert, OC Mike McDaniel and his speed on these run-away routes. The key will be making sure he’s not losing 2-WR snaps from second-year WR3 Tre’ Harris, as McDaniel runs 3-WR sets at near league-low rates.
The Chargers have the highest team total of Week 1 (28.5 points) while hosting the Cardinals’ mediocre defense. He’ll face off with CB1 Will Johnson, who is once again dealing with an injury. He’s not someone to avoid in fantasy.
Johnston only has a 5.5-target projection by the betting markets, so we’re firmly in the boom-bust tier now. I like my boom-bust WRs on teams projected for 3-4 TDs.
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32. Terry McLaurin (at PHI) – 52.5 proj. receiving yards
McLaurin has 23 games with Jayden Daniels. He’s half-PPR’s per-game WR13 on WR28 usage with him, while obviously running pure on touchdowns. Those big plays will be much harder to find this year without star LT Laremy Tunsil and a reportedly struggling OL. That said, it’s only Stefon Diggs in the slot, Treylon Burks at WR2 and Chig Okonkwo at TE this season. McLaurin will be involved.
The issue this week is the Eagles’ fantastic defense. Their DL will give the Commanders fits, and McLaurin will go toe-to-toe with star CB1 Quinyon Mitchell. In five games against the Eagles in the past two seasons, McLaurin has averaged 4.4 targets, 3.2 receptions and 46 yards.
(Photo by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
33. Brian Thomas Jr. (vs. CLE) – 37.5 proj. receiving yards
The rookie-season role is long gone. His screen rate dropped from 11% to 1%, and his expected fantasy points dropped from WR19 to WR37 with Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange working the middle more often. Thomas is still immensely talented and one of the best downfield receivers in the game, but the consistency will not be there. The good news is the Jaguars were more pass heavy than you’d think, leading to the third-most usage at WR in the NFL last year.
(Chart by Hayden Winks/Yahoo Sports)
BTJ’s role will be the hardest, and he’ll draw the most difficult assignments, like this week with CB1 Denzel Ward. The rest of the secondary isn’t quite as strong, so more P-Wash wouldn’t be a surprise. Thomas will need a big play to pay off, and it might have to come early on with the Browns looking uncompetitive against a stout Jaguars DEF.
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They are 8.5-point favorites with the No. nine team total (24.5 points). Thomas’ betting market projection is a lowly 37.5 yards.
34. Marvin Harrison Jr. (at LAC) – 47.5 proj. receiving yards
In his first two seasons, Harrison is the WR42 on WR40 usage on a per-game basis. Last year’s finish was actually slightly worse than it was as a rookie after Michael Wilson and Trey McBride each took a leap. Neither of those players are going anywhere, and both have been more effective underneath. Throw in the Cardinals’ third-overall pick in RB Jeremiyah Love, and all of a sudden there is a lot more skill talent than QB talent.
The Cardinals only have a 19.0-point team total while playing in L.A. against the Chargers’ fringe top-10 defense. They were awesome last year, but they lost elite DC Jesse Minter. Harrison will likely have an entire second half to be in catch-up mode as the Cardinals are 9.5-point dogs. They’ve been in negative script a lot in his first two seasons and results have been mixed. Harrison will at least avoid star SCB Derwin James on most snaps. CB1 Tarheeb Still is an underrated player.
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35. Matthew Golden (at MIN) – 40.5 proj. receiving yards
Golden only played about 50% of the Packers snaps as a rookie despite going 23rd overall in the NFL Draft. Per route, Golden was just fine. He had a 1.44 yards per route and 15.5% targets per route. He played in some 2-WR sets, but most of his looks game in 3-WR sets with quality players around him. The quality is still there with Christian Watson and slot Jayden Reed both paid, but his path to near full-time snaps is way more obvious now that Romeo Doubs (free agent) and Dontayvion Wicks (trade) are out of the way. On top of that, the Packers are likely passing more and playing with more pace without Josh Jacobs. There’s a pretty obvious path to a ceiling if Golden can play well.
The Vikings’ unique defense causes a lot of problems to inexperienced teams, but the Packers should be used to things. Individually, the Vikings’ starting CBs aren’t very good. They do play in two-high shells at the highest rate in the NFL, so despite blitzing, it’s difficult to hit explosives. Golden may need to show more underneath and intermediate to pay off here. I believe he can do it. The Packers have a 22.5-point team total (17th), and Golden projects for 42.5 yards. It’s possible Tucker Kraft is on a snap count here.
36. Jordan Addison (vs. GB) – 42.5 proj. receiving yards
Addison was the WR22 and WR23 per game in his first two seasons using half-PPR scoring. He fell off last year with horrible QB play, but Kyler Murray is likely in the Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold tier, so there’s more upside than given credit for.
The Packers will be without Micah Parsons in Week 1, and they were awful without him late last year. From Week 15 on, they had a 2.2% sack rate (last) and +0.27 EPA per dropback (fifth worst). The Packers’ beat reporters are concerned about their corners, for what it’s worth, and it’s hard to disagree with. On top of that, it’s a new scheme defensively, so coverage bust potential is up.
Addison is one of my favorite dart-throw WR3 starts with the Vikings projected for 24.0 points (10th) at home.
